Head to Head: Handicapping the Best Pal at Del Mar
The $200,000 Grade 3 Best Pal Stakes is the first of Del Mar’s two graded stakes for 2-year-old males, and it is a prep race for the Del Mar Futurity (G1).
Named for the three-time California champion who won this race when it was called the Balboa Stakes, the Best Pal has yielded two 2-year-old champs in recent years, Lookin at Lucky (2009), who captured the following year’s Preakness, and Nyquist (2015) who wore the roses in 2016.
This year, a field of five hopefuls lines up, including two flashy, expensive babies from the Bob Baffert barn.
Ashley Tamulonis of Coast To Coast and Laurie Ross of Pedigree Power examine the field.
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Laurie |
Ashley |
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1. Raging Torrent (15-1) |
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I liked Raging Torrent’s competitive spirit in his debut. As Ashley noted, he raced in company and wide the entire way, and despite Antonio Fresu losing the whip (oops, even Trevor Denman announced it), Raging Torrent pinned his ears and passed rivals to win by 2 1/4 lengths. The Doug O’Neil trainee stopped the clock in 57.71 seconds and finished his final furlong in a sparkling 12.12 seconds, getting an 83 Brisnet Speed Rating for the effort. The son of leading freshmen sire Maximus Mischief returned with two slightly quicker post-race works. The cleverly named Raging Torrent is the first foal out of the Violence mare Violent Wave. There’s not much black type in the family, but her half-brother is Grade 3-winning turf sprinter The Nth Degree. I agree with Ashley that Raging Torrent is a live long shot. |
Raging Torrent had an eventful debut for trainer Doug O’Neill. The Maximus Mischief colt was off a step slow in the five-furlong, $82K maiden race under Antonio Fresu. They raced three wide throughout, and Fresu (comically, to me, because it just went flying) lost his whip at the top of the lane. That made little difference as Raging Torrent had all the momentum and continued strongly to the wire under a hand ride. He earned an 88 Equibase speed figure for the effort. That race was on July 23; none have returned to the starting gate since. O’Neill is just a 6 percent winner, 33 percent in the money, in stakes races in the last year, according to Race Lens, but he and Fresu have teamed up to win at a 20 percent clip, 50 percent in the money. Live long shot. |
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2. Tranche (4-1) |
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As Ashley noted, Tranche has made three starts and won and placed in two stakes. His Brisnet ratings have jumped each start, culminating with a 96 in the Fasig-Tipton Futurity. His 92 late pace figure is the highest in the Best Pal field. Tranche, whose name means a portion of money or financial arrangement, likely didn’t breeze more because he’s fit and probably gallops around a mile every day or a couple of days. Kudos to Luis Mendez for not overworking the 2-year-old. By Collected, Tranche is the first black-type earner in his immediate family. The second generation of his female family contains a trio of multiple stakes-winning turf horses, including the good producer America America. Her line yielded the stakes-winning turf mare Partisan Politics, stakes-winning sprinter She and multiple graded-placed Bluegrass Princess. Contender. |
Tranche is the most experienced colt in the field, with
three starts under his girth, and would likely be the favorite in any field devoid of Baffert runners. He debuted on April 7 in a 4 1/2-furlong,
$80K event at Keeneland for Luis Mendez, where he was off slow and caught
very wide throughout, finishing an even seventh. Third-place finisher Callin My
Name won two starts later after being gelded and dropping in class, and fourth-place finisher West Saratoga and fifth-place finisher Beaudacious
Colton won four starts later. Mendez ran the colt next in the five-furlong
$200,000 Kentucky Juvenile, where Tranche pressed the pace from second but gave way
to finish third, beaten 9 3/4 lengths by undefeated Youalmosthadme, who has won
both starts by a combined 17 1/4 lengths. Tranche most recently broke his
maiden in the $100,000 Fasig-Tipton Futurity. With Edwin Maldonado aboard,
the Collected colt went straight to the lead and increased his advantage
throughout, hitting the wire clear by 7 1/4 lengths and earning a career-best
89 Equibase speed figure. Oddly, the Futurity was on June 17, and Tranche has
had only one published work in the interim, a four-furlong gate work in 47.60 seconds
on Wednesday. Use underneath. |
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3. Who Is Pavel |
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Who Is Pavel? We’re trying to figure that out, and he’s
trying to figure out how to be a racehorse. Who Is Pavel had a wide trip in his
debut. He made a sharp move around the turn but wandered down the stretch, looking
like he was in the final stages of an all-night pub crawl. The Edward Freeman
trainee couldn’t sustain the bid, but it wasn’t a bad learning effort. The
son of Stephen Foster (G1) hero Pavel and grandson of Best Pal victor Creative
Cause has very little blackt ype in his distaff line. The pretty gray colt is
attempting three things for the first time, turf to dirt, longer distance and stepping up in class. Typically, 2-year-olds getting multiple new
experiences in their early career don’t do well. The Best Pal looks like a “What
is he thinking?” move. Pass. |
Who Is Pavel enters as a maiden after finishing fifth in his debut. Trainer Edward Freeman unveiled the Pavel ridgling at a mile on the turf in an $82,000 maiden event. He raced in sixth, four to five lengths off the leader, and put in a bid at the top of the lane to move into third, but ultimately flattened out to finish fifth with a 77 speed figure. According to Race Lens, Freeman is 60 percent in the money with route-to-sprint runners but with no recent winners and 25 percent, 63 percent in the money, with turf-to-dirt runners in the last year. An interesting prospect, but I’ll pass. |
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4. Muth (3-5) |
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See below. |
See below. |
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5. Prince of Monaco (9-5) |
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See below. |
See below. |
Point-counterpoint
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Laurie |
Ashley |
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Prince of Monaco and Muth look evenly matched on paper. Both are high-priced Baffert babies. They dominated their respective debuts by about the same number of lengths and identical times. But Prince of Monaco beat only three runners, and his internal fractions for the five-furlong event at Los Alamitos were 22.20, 45.48 and finishing in 57.21 seconds, and getting a 12.70-second final furlong. After hesitating and hopping at the break, Prince of Monaco vied on the far outside and turned back a challenge around the turn. He was never seriously threatened by the challenge because his ears were twitching or up the entire race. Juan Hernandez had Prince of Monaco under wraps most of the way. Prince of Monaco has a superior pedigree. His sire Spightstown is noted for getting first-rate sprinters and was a top-10 general sire last year. The cleverly named colt is out of the unraced Medaglia d'Oro mare Rainier, and his female line is packed with stakes winners. His dam’s half-brother is multiple stakes-winning sprinter Laurie’s Rocket; half-sister Greeley’s Rocket is a multiple stakes-winning turf sprinter, and another half-sister bore the multiple stakes-winning sprinter Necker Island, who placed in the Indiana and Ellis Park derbies. Prince of Monaco’s stakes-placed second dam’s half-sister is Grade 1 heroine Adieu. At first glance, Prince of Monaco has a sprinter/miler pedigree, yet his conformation indicates that two turns is within his scope. Plus, the proven Speightstown/ Medaglia d'Oro cross has yielded eight stakes winners, including American Oaks (G1) heroine Competitionofideas, Olympiad, winner of last year’s Jockey Club Gold Cup (G1) and Breeders’ Cup Classic runner-up and multiple Grade 1-winning sprinter Rock Fall. Prince of Monaco and Muth were paired for a 1:00 five-furlong breeze on July 23. Prince of Monaco, on the inside, stayed a measured half-length in front of his smaller rival. The Prince moved easily with his ears up and twitching while Muth worked harder, his ears pinned. The colts crossed the finish line and galloped out with little separating them. Prince of Monaco is larger, has a longer stride than Munth, is royally bred and overcame minor trouble in his debut. SF Racing, Starlight Racing and Madaket Stables went to $900,000 for this handsome colt, and it’s easy to see why. Prince of Monaco rules. |
Prince of Monaco was off a step slow and had to work for it early in his debut, but Muth was sharp as a tack and quickly put daylight between himself and his five rivals. He hit the top of the stretch seven lengths in front and maintained that advantage to the wire, winning by 8 3/4 lengths while geared down. Muth’s early fractions in his five-furlong event at Santa Anita were quicker than Prince of Monaco’s. He blitzed through splits of 21.60 and 44.59 seconds, finishing in 57.29 seconds with a final furlong of an identical 12.70 seconds while wrapped up. Prince of Monaco received a 93 Equibase speed figure, and Muth earned a 96 Equibase speed figure. Muth also earned a 90 Beyer Speed Figure from Daily Racing Form, and Prince of Monaco was assigned an 81 for his debut. Muth’s 90 is a tie for the third-fastest Beyer of any 2-year-old in 2023. At this point, neither colt seems to have beaten much. Half the rivals they faced have not returned to the starting gate, and none that have made subsequent starts have won. Interestingly, however, three of the runners who have raced again moved to the turf in their next start, and two of them hit the board. Muth is the first foal out of the winning Uncle Mo mare Hoppa. He is from the second crop of champion Good Magic, who was the no. 2 first-crop sire in 2022. Muth’s dam side isn’t packed like Prince of Monaco’s is, but his top side certainly is. Sire Good Magic is a son of champion Curlin. Good Magic’s dam Glinda the Good is a Grade 2-placed listed stakes winner. Her half-siblings include Grade 3 winner Take the Ribbon (second dam of Grade 3 winner Love and Thunder); listed stakes winner Flash Mash; and restricted stakes winners Bright Magic (dam of 2011 Bashford Manor (G3) winner Exfactor and stakes winner Market Magic), Hot War and Flash Forward. Another half-sister, Overnightsensation, produced 2017 Puerto Rican champion imported male Handsome Franco. Glinda the Good’s dam Magical Flash, is a half-sister to multiple Grade 1 winner Magical Maiden, who produced Grade 1 winner Miss Houdini, who in turn produced multiple Grade 1 winner and champion Ce Ce and multiple Grade 2 winning millionaire Papa Clem. Magical Flash is also a half-sister to Grade 2 winner Magical Mile. Laurie brought up the tandem work from this duo, saying that Muth worked harder during that session than did Prince of Monaco. Morning works can be indicative of a horse’s future race-day performance, but they’re not the end all, be all. Overall, I thought Muth had the better debut, and he certainly received the better speed figures. Sire Good Magic also has been throwing sensational runners, as evidenced by Muth’s purchase price of $2 million. So it’s Muth for me. |
Final thoughts
Laurie: In the last dozen years, only two Best Pal winners didn’t win their previous start. One was third in the Bashford Manor, and one, Know More, made his winning debut in Best Pal.
Speed rules. Pacesetters or pressers won 75 percent of the time and favorites 53 percent.
Bob Baffert has won the Best Pal Stakes trophy nine times. But in the last 12 years, he’s taken it easy on the entry box, entering only six horses and gaining two victories. In 2011, both of his charges finished off the board at short odds. Hopefully, that won’t be the case this year.
Prince of Monaco had a sharp pre-race gate work, and despite his size, he broke straight and with his partner. Granted, his mind needs to catch up with his body, and he’s doing everything on talent, but I like how he relaxes and does everything effortlessly. Also, although Juan Hernandez sticks with Muth, Flavien Prat flies in to ride Prince of Monaco.
Tranche has experience, took to California racing like a hedge fund trader to money, and comes into the Best Pal a fresh horse. I'll tag him to cash on the show spot.
Ashley: On paper, this is a match race between the two Bob Baffert colts, Muth and Prince of Monaco. Both had flashy debut wins, but Muth was quicker out of the gate and faster through the first half-mile. Juan Hernandez was aboard both pricey purchases in their debuts and sticks with Muth while Flavien Prat picks up the mount on Prince of Monaco. For me, it’s telling who a trainer’s go-to rider will be aboard.
Although the top two spots appear to be locked up, the third spot could conceivably go to any of the other three runners, even Who Is Pavel, whom I passed on. Not much separates Raging Torrent from Tranche’s best race by the numbers, but Tranche obviously has the experience advantage. However, I will bank on Doug O’Neill’s overall superior experience in stakes to carry the day and fill my trifecta.
Selections
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Laurie |
Ashley |
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5. Prince of Monaco (9-5) |
4. Muth (3-5) |
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4. Muth (3-5) |
5. Prince of Monaco (9-5) |
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2. Tranche (4-1) |
1. Raging Torrent (15-1) |