Head to Head: Handicapping the 2023 Alabama Stakes

Ashley

Laurie

1. Sacred Wish 8-1

Sacred Wish has had the misfortune to be the bridesmaid in three of her four last outings, including seconds in the Gulfstream Park Oaks (G2) and the Coaching Club American Oaks (G1), which she lost by a neck to Wet Paint. She earned a career-best 100 Equibase speed figure for that effort. In the CCA Oaks, she tracked the pace, took over inside the five-sixteenths pole, and was caught in the final strides after having a three-length advantage in the stretch. The pace was slow, so she had no excuses to get nailed on the wire. Now she’s being asked to go another furlong. Pass.

Wet Paint was all over Sacred Wish in at the end of the CCA Oaks, where Sacred Wish’s hope was dashed by a neck defeat. The George Weaver trainee has only one victory in six starts, showing that she’s a polite filly, letting others go first. Not This Time’s daughter has a versatile running style as a pace presser/closer. Her sire has one winner, Epicenter, and three runners up from 10 starters at 1 1/4 miles. Still, Sacred Wish’s female family are sprinters to middle-distance winners, having produced Grade 1-winning miler Sharp Azteca, multiple Grade 1-winning turf miler Bowie’s Hero, and Sunland Derby hero Firing Line, although that one placed in the Kentucky Derby. John Velazquez is a master at rating his mounts and has the option of pressing, tailgating or closing. Exotics play.

2. Wet Paint  2-1

Wet Paint rattled off three straight wins to begin her 2023 campaign but could only manage fourth in the Kentucky Oaks (G1) as the favorite. She followed that up with a loss to Hoosier Philly in the Monomoy Girl before rebounding with a win in the CCA Oaks over Sacred Wish, Gambling Girl, and Southlawn. She earned an identical 100 Equibase speed figure to Sacred Wish, also a career-best for her. Others who have fallen victim to this filly’s closing kick are Taxed and Defining Purpose. Wet Paint comes from off the pace and has proved on a few occasions that she can overcome a slow pace. Contender.

CCA Oaks heroine Wet Paint has finished off the board only twice in her nine-race career, and as Ashley pointed out, she’s previously bested four of her Alabama rivals. By Blame out of a stakes-winning daughter of Street Cry, Wet Paint should handle the extra distance. The Brad Cox trainee generally closes, but she has tactical speed and isn’t dependent on a fast pace. Contender.

3. Julia Shining  5-1

Regally bred Julia Shining has never been out of the trifecta in four career starts. The Curlin filly was undefeated as a juvenile, including winning the 1 1/8-mile Demoiselle over Gambling Girl in her second career start. She’s managed just a pair of third-place finishes this year, but they’ve been close losses. She was only 1 1/2 lengths shy of the winner in the Suncoast in her season debut and missed by just 3/4 of a length to Defining Purpose in the Ashland (G1). Julia Shining earned a career-best 99 Equibase speed figure when finishing 3rd in the Ashland. According to Race Lens, trainer, Todd Pletcher produces winners at a 21 percent rate, 55 percent in the money, with runners coming off a two- to six-month layoff. Exotics play.

The lightly raced Julia Shining closed to within 3/4 of a length of Defining Purpose in the Ashland in her last start. Unfortunately, she was an also-eligible in the Kentucky Oaks and didn’t draw in, so she’s been on the shelf since early April. Her full sister, 2-time champ Malathaat won the 2021 version of the Alabama, but will Todd Pletcher have Julia Shining fit enough to win against this group? She fired a five-furlong 1:00 bullet in her second-to-last breeze with 2021 Cigar Mile (G1) victor Americanrevolution. I question the time since the 5-year-old horse outworked her easily by two lengths under a hold while the rider was scrubbing Julia Shining. She looked better in her latest five-furlong work in 1:01.55 in company with recent maiden winner Abadin. Traveling as a pair early, Julia Shining surged forward by about a length under the wire while moving easily. Exotics play.

4. Sabra Tuff  30-1

Sabra Tuff owns just one victory in nine career starts. In her debut, the Cross Traffic filly was slow out of the gate but sprinted up for the lead. Runner-up Shoplifter joined her on the pace, and those two engaged in a sustained battle to the wire, with Sabra Tuff prevailing by a determined neck. She was a distant second to Wonder Wheel in the Debutante and third in the Adirondack (G3) in her next two outings but has not hit the board since then. In her most recent effort, she was fourth in a 1 1/8-mile optional claimer over this very track. Two starts back, she was last and well beaten in the Monomoy Girl Stakes. Trainer Dallas Stewart is just 2 percent, 22 percent in the money, in stakes races. Pass.

Sabra Tuff is the Alabama “Why?” horse. Other than graduating at first asking in a 5 1/2-furlong sprint, the Dallas Stewart trainee hasn’t been competitive against stakes or optional claiming company. By Cross Traffic out of a Cactus Ridge mare, Sabra Tuff has a sprinter/miler pedigree. Either Stewart or the owners, I suspect the owners, need to get a clue. Pass.

5. Fireline  12-1

Juddmonte Farms' homebred Fireline has two wins from four starts. The Arrogate filly was slow out of the gate in her debut and never got involved, but she bounced back to break her maiden in a mile, $85K event at Aqueduct by 13 1/2 lengths in her second start. She was then off for six months, returning a winner in May. She was most recently fourth in the Delaware Oaks as the favorite (G3), six lengths behind the winner. Fireline earned identical 87 Equibase speed figures in both 2023 starts. Since she was beaten by much weaker rivals than these last out, Fireline is a pass.

Fireline never looked comfortable in her foray into graded stakes in the Delaware Oaks (G2). She raced in traffic chasing slow fractions and never relaxed at any point during the race.The Chad Brown trainee was wide around the turn and ran out of energy fighting a rival to her inside. She was unfocused and couldn’t hold a straight path down the lane. The pretty gray daughter of Arrogate is out of the graded stakes-winning sprint mare High Ridge Road, a daughter of Quality Road. Fireline needs to improve her performance and focus to be competitive here, but if Castellano can keep her on or pressing the pace, there’s a chance she can grab a minor award. Live longshot exotics play.

6. Chocolate Gelato  15-1

Chocolate Gelato broke her maiden at second asking, romping to an 8 1/2-length, gate-to-wire victory. She then took the Frizette (G1) in her third start before finishing 12th of 13 in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies (G1) to end her juvenile campaign. Trainer Todd Pletcher gave her a seven-month freshening and brought her back in the $150,000, six-furlong Jersey Girl Stakes, where she was fourth after brushing the gate at the start as the odds-on favorite. She’s being asked to run an extra half-mile this time, and Pletcher wins at a 15 percent clip, 55 percent in the money, with sprint-to-route runners. I don’t think Chocolate Gelato will want this classic distance, though. Pass.

I’ve liked Chocolate Gelato since her debut, but not in this race. The Frizette (G1) heroine is best as a pace presser-setter and was taken out of her game and asked to rate in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies and the Jersy Girl Stakes. By sprinter-miler Practical Joke out of a daughter of Candy Ride, Chocolate Gelato has a miler’s pedigree. None of her siblings have won beyond a mile, and according to Race Lens, only three of 13 of Practical Joke’s offspring have won at 1 1/8 miles, and none beyond the distance. This is an odd spot for the Todd Pletcher trainee. Last seen finishing third in a six-furlong listed stake in June, she’s jumping into a 1 1/4-mile Grade 1 more than two months later, and that gap between works from July 14 and Aug. 9 is a red flag. The armchair trainer in me thinks the Test Stakes would have been a more competitive spot. Could Pletcher use Chocolate Gelato as a rabbit for Gambling Girl? He’s used rabbits before, but not with good results. Pass.

7. Gambling Girl  8-1

Gambling Girl ran the race of her life to miss the Kentucky Oaks (G1) win by a neck. In 11 career races, this daughter of Dialed In has missed the trifecta only three times. She was most recently third, 8 3/4 lengths behind Wet Paint and Sacred Wish, in the CCA Oaks over this track. She sat a good trip in fourth, but when it came time to do the real running, she put in a mild bid and came up empty. Wet Paint swept right past her to nip Sacred Wish at the wire, while Gambling Girl was simply the best of the rest. Exotics play.

Gambling Girl has finished off the board only twice, with excuses, in her 11-race career. Ashley noted that the Todd Pletcher trainee weakened to third place in the CCA Oaks. However, it was her first start off a two-month layoff, so she had the right to get a little leg weary. By Dialed, who had five of seven starters hit the board at 1 1/4 miles out of a mare by the stamina-oriented stallion Empire Maker, Gambling Girl should handle 1 1/4 miles. Additionally, a half-sibling has won and placed at the distance. Drawing a line through her last race, Gambling Girl has some of the best late-pace numbers in the field. Plus, it’s hard to ignore the Pletcher-Irad Ortiz Jr. combo who captured last year’s Alabama with Nest. Contender.

8. Randomized  9-2

Randomized has a lose-win-lose-win cycle, and after winning the $135,000 Wilton Stakes over this track in gate-to-wire fashion last out, she’s on the losing side of that cycle. The Nyquist filly owns the best Equibase speed figure in the field, a 106 she received when breaking her maiden in March. She had raced once before that in July 2022 but finished third in her debut. After breaking her maiden in March, trainer Chad Brown put her in the Acorn (G1), where she ran an abysmal sixth. But she didn’t make the lead in the Acorn, and both career wins came when Randomized had the lead. Joel Rosario hops aboard for the first time, and he’ll need to stomp the gas at the break to get her in a winning position. Contender.

Randomized has proven she’s a -need-the-lead type, and she’ll probably butt heads on the lead with Defining Purpose and maybe Chocolate Gelato. Randomized has a miler/middle-distance pedigree. Her sire Nyquist might have won the Kentucky Derby, but his offspring are 0-for-8 at 1 1/4 miles, with one third-place finisher over the last five years. Randomized’s female family includes the awesome multiple Grade 1-winning turf sprinter/miler Get Stormy and multiple graded winner Smooth Air, capable to 1 1/8 miles. The Chad Brown trainee’s Brisnet ratings had a 20-point increase between her last two starts, and she’s a bounce candidate. Pass.

9. Taxed  8-1

Taxed is a filly who runs either really well or really poorly, and she’s been in good form all year except in the Honeybee (G3),   which was contested over a sloppy track. In her other four starts in 2023, she’s compiled a 1-3-0 record with a win in the Black-Eyed Susan (G2). The Collected filly was most recently second in the Indiana Oaks (G3), 1 1/4 lengths behind winner Defining Purpose. Trainer Randy Morse is only 8 percent, 46 percent in the money, in stakes races and four percent, 28 percent in the money, in races over this distance/surface. Exotics play.

Taxed switched from a pace pressing to a closing running style in her last two starts and was rewarded with a Black-Eyed Susan victory and closed within 2 1/4 lengths of Defining Purpose in the Indiana Oaks. That one has bested Taxed in two of the three occasions they’ve met. Taxed is also well acquainted with Wet Paint’s hind end, having lost three times to her. By second-crop siree and Pacific Classic (G1) hero Collected out of a stakes-winning sprinter by Yankee Gentleman, this pretty gray filly has a router’s physique. Exotics play.

10. Defining Purpose  10-1

A daughter of Cross Traffic, Defining Purpose most recently bested Taxed in the Indiana Oaks. The pretty gray filly also upset the Ashland (G1) and was 3rd in the Martha Washington but finished off the board in the Honeybee and the Kentucky Oaks. She earned a career-best 100 Equibase speed figure in the Ashland and a second-best 93 in the Indiana Oaks. Her inconsistency, however, is a big red flag for me, and after her winning effort in Indiana last out, I’m expecting her to bounce here. Trainer Kenny McPeek is just 12 percent, 36 percent in the money, in stakes. Pass.

The pace pressing-setting Defining Purpose had excuses in all four of her off-the-board placings. She doesn’t like to get her hooves dirty in the mud, and she stumbled and was rushed to fight between horses in the Kentucky Oaks. The fight tired her to seventh place. Defining Purpose has a miler pedigree. Her sire Cross Traffic is noted for getting quick offspring, none of whom have won beyond 1 1/8 miles. Defining Purpose is out of the multiple stakes-winning sprinter-miler Defining Hope, a daughter of Strong Hope, whose distance range was up to 1 1/8 miles. The distance, Defining Purpose’s running style and the fact that she’ll either have to go early or be wide throughout is a pass for me.