Head to Head: Handicapping the 2022 San Felipe Stakes

ASHLEY

LAURIE

1. Happy Jack

Hmmmm…Calumet Farm being Calumet Farm again. Here’s one with good breeding, let’s take a shot at the Derby. The blinkers come off for the San Felipe, but I doubt that will help decrease the 27-length margin of defeat Happy Jack suffered in the Robert B. Lewis. Toss.

I'm drawing a line through Happy Jack's last start, a terrible performance in the Robert B. Lewis (G3) because of the two-week turnaround after winning his debut. Previously, he handily beat Beautiful Art in their debut. This son of Oxbow is out of a Tapit mare, so he should improve with maturity and racing. That being said, I don't think he's up to beating this group. Toss.

2. Worse Read Sanchez

OK, I have no idea who decided this was a good name because the only worse one could possibly be “Butt Fumble Sanchez.” But, keeping with the theme, I think this was a bad read. State-bred company only? Check. Last three starts on turf? Check. Granted, he won one and missed by just a nose in another, but is this really the place to try the Derby Trail? Ummm….no. Toss.

Worse Read Sanchez (no relation to stakes-placed turned performance horse Bad Read Sanchez) has the makings of a decent turf router, at least at the state-bred level. He displays a strong late kick that, hopefully, he can transfer to dirt. However, Doug O'Neill, hoping for a Derby contender, gives the son of Square Eddie a shot in a weak Grade 2 dirt contest. Stats Race Lens shows O'Neil has a 12-percent win rate with the turf-to-dirt angle over the last five years. What I want to know is – who is Sanchez, and why are they making fun of the way he reads? Exotics.

3. Armagnac

Armagnac intrigues me. He’s in the Baffert barn, so he obviously has talent and potential. He moved up nicely from the increase from sprint to route, and John Velazquez stays aboard. Despite being only a maiden winner, there is something to be said for this son of the handsome Quality Road. Exotics.

Armagnac wired the field by 2 1/4 lengths in a 1 1/16-mile maiden event, and three of his four competitors returned to win or place in their next start. Armagnac and Doppelganger teamed for a pre-race six-furlong breeze in 1:12.40. Doppelganger sat off his stablemate's flank until they hit the stretch, then gradually drew even, and Armagnac was pushed in the final half-furlong and around the turn. Both colts run upright with a slightly choppy motion. Exotics.

4. Beautiful Art

Boy, did Beautiful Art learn a thing between starts one and two. Firstly, he learned to break faster. Secondly, he ended up close to the pace, something evidently helpful. Perhaps the biggest difference was the “drop” in class from a $67,000 maiden to a $200,000 maiden claiming. A son of Klimt, Beautiful Art has yet to race past six furlongs and could find himself folding in the stretch as the others continue on. Toss.

Beautiful Art destroyed $200,000 maiden claimers in a six-furlong race by 4 3/4 lengths in his second start and traveled his final furlong in 12.64. The race yielded a next-out winner. According to Stats Race Lens, Klimt's offspring ore 0-for-10 past a mile. Toss.

5. Doppelganger

Doppelganger debuted beautifully for Baffert but could only manage fourth in the San Vicente (G2) in his second start. He raced very evenly throughout, neither gaining nor losing position. His last three works have been bullet moves, so expectations are there. If he’s not the morning-line favorite, he’ll be one of the top choices. Exotics.

Doppelganger was a ghost of his former self in the San Vicente (G2). He raced three wide and never improved on his fourth-place position, even after making a tepid bid in the stretch, finishing 2 3/4-lengths behind Forbidden Kingdom. The son of Into Mischief is a big, muscular colt, but he has high knee action and runs with his head up. In previous works, he's held his own with Newgrange and Country Grammer, but will the real colt show up? I'm taking a stand against. Toss.

6. Forbidden Kingdom

By resumé only, Forbidden Kingdom should be the favorite. The son of American Pharoah was third in the Speak Easy on turf, second in the Bob Hope (G3), and won the San Vicente (G2) in his last start. Mandella has a good one here, but he’s going to have to be able to stretch his speed another 1 1/2-furlongs. I do love his last works, though! A bullet seven-furlong move three days before the San Vicente (G3). And bullet three-furlong, four-furlong, six-furlong and seven-furlong moves since then. Someone is obviously having stamina trained into him. Win contender.

Forbidden Kingdom took the lead in the San Vicente Stakes and was never challenged. Grade 1-winner Pinehurst chased but lost ground in the stretch as the Richard Mandella trainee widened his advantage to 2 1/4 lengths. Pinehurst returned to win the $1.5 million Saudi Derby (G3) in Dubai. By Pioneerof the Nile, Forbidden Kingdom should handle his two-turn test. In a seven-furlong work paired with the maiden filly Micro Share, Forbidden Kingdom started a few lengths behind to learn to relax. He drew even with the filly but was pushed to pass. Not thrilled with the work, but must consider him a Win contender.

7. Cabo Spirit

Cabo Spirit’s first efforts on dirt weren’t very successful. George Papaprodromou switched the Pioneerof the Nile colt onto the turf, where he went 4: 2-1-1, including a win in the Eddie Logan. Cabo Spirit faced a buzzsaw in his next start on dirt, valiantly trying to catch runaway winner Messier, who eventually won by 15 lengths. When Messier is away, perhaps Cabo Spirit will pay (bettors and the connections). Exotics.

Cabo Spirit tried to go with Messier in the Robert B. Lewis (G3) but was outclassed, finishing 15 lengths behind that rival. However, the George Papaprodromou trainee was a clear second, eight lengths ahead of the third-place Wharton. Early in his career, Cabo Spirit was no factor behind Pinehurst and Rockefeller. He gets a break in this weak Grade 2. Exotics.