Head to Head: Handicapping the 2022 Arkansas Derby

ASHLEY

LAURIE

1. Kavod (15-1)

Kavod finally broke his maiden in start number six after being well beaten in all his previous races aside from his debut. Since then, he’s been knocking at the door. He won the Adventure at Oaklawn to close out his juvenile campaign but has run fourth in all three outings in 2022, the Smarty Jones, the Southwest (G3), and the Rebel (G2). His speed figures have remained consistently in the high 80’s, but I doubt blinkers off is going to help him beat the best in the field. Bottom of superfecta.

Kavod has flashed early speed and faded like a bad spray tan in the stretch of his last three starts. The Chris Harman trainee has the pedigree to handle nine furlongs but not the mindset. I predict a similar result. Toss.

2. Chasing Time (12-1)

Chasing Time’s best race was his maiden breaker, in which he earned a 94 speed figure. He’s won once more since then but could do no better than fifth against this same group last out. Toss.

Steve Asmussen is hunting for his third-straight Arkansas Derby with Chasing Time. The pace presser has good gate speed but isn't happy when stuck between horses, which is where he found himself in the Rebel Stakes. When the real running started, Chasing Time gave up the chase and finished fifth. By Not This Time out of a daughter of Dixie Union, Chasing Time should handle the extra distance, yet his speed figures show that he's not as fast as others in here. Additionally, he gets his seventh jockey switch in as many starts. He'll have to show a significant form reversal and breaking from post two, I expect a similar result to the Rebel Stakes unless Jose Lezcano uses the colt's swift early foot to take the lead. Toss.

3. Barber Road (8-1)

Like Kavod, Barber Road has been knocking at the door in stakes company. He was second in the Lively Shively, the Smarty Jones, and the Southwest (G3) and was 3^rd in the Rebel (G2). Exotics.

Barber Road made up ground in the Southwest (G3) and Rebel (G2), which is what I like to see. He missed the victory only by a half-length in the Rebel, and his Brisnet speed ratings indicate a forward move. His pedigree and running style suggest nine furlongs won't be a problem. Live longshot.

4. Doppelganger (3-1)

Formerly trained by Bob Baffert, Doppelganger will be making his first start for Baffert’s former assistant Tim Yakteen. The Into Mischief colt previously ran 4^th in the San Vicente and 2^nd in the San Felipe. Yakteen takes the blinkers off while John Velazquez takes over for Flavien Prat. Win contender.

Making his first start for new trainer Tim Yakteen, Doppelganger gets out of Forbidden Kingdom's shadow and gets the chance to prove himself against the Midwest contingent. By into Mischief out of a stakes-winning daughter of Quiet American, Doppelganger should handle the distance, and he has gained ground in every start. Although Yakteen has just ten percent winners with the blinkers off angle, he has hit the board with 80 percent after a trainer switch. Win contender.

5. Un Ojo (6-1)

Un Ojo (Spanish for “One Eye”) has pulled surprise after surprise. First, at odds of 28-1, he ran second in the Withers (G3). Then, even more shockingly, he upset the Rebel (G2) at odds of 75-1. So does the son of the late Laoban have yet another ace up his sleeve? Maybe. Use in all spots.

Rebel Stakes hero Un Ojo returns to defend his title. The Rodney Dangerfield of the 3-year-old class, Un Ojo, hasn't received respect in five of his six career outings and has been dismissed at double-digit odds in his last three starts. By Laoban out of a stakes-placed daughter of A.P. Indy, Un Ojo should have no problem with the distance. I don't think he's in Secret Oath's league, but Un Ojo has my respect. Win contender.

6. Secret Oath (5-2)

By the late Arrogate, Secret Oath is the lone filly in the field and is a perfect 3-for-3 at Oaklawn. She was completely uncontested in all three of those races, giving D. Wayne Lukas the indication that she can tackle the boys on what seems to be her favorite track. She has the best speed figures in the field and is certainly a force to be contended with. Win contender.

Secret Oath bullied the fillies into submission in her last three starts. Her dam Absinthe Minded, also conditioned by Lukas, loved Oaklawn. She won two listed stakes and hit the board in the Apple Blossom (G1) twice. Lukas is no stranger to starting fillies against the boys. Althea won the 1984 Arkansas Derby and won the Kentucky Derby with Winning Colors in 1988. Secret Oath may well be in their league. Win contender.

7. Ben Diesel (15-1)

Ben Diesel’s best finish in stakes company was his 3^rd place finish in the Southwest (G3). Aside from that, he’s been off the board in every race except his debut. Toss.

Ben Diesel's performance and speed ratings go up and down like a rollercoaster. He sandwiched a third-place finish in the Southwest Stakes between two off the board finishes. This Dallas Stewart trainee has lost ground in four of five lifetime starts despite having the pedigree to handle nine furlongs. He's on the upward swing, so a good trip could mess up the exotics. But I'll take the risk. Toss.

8. Cyberknife (8-1)

After running a disappointing 6^th in the Lecomte (G3), Cyberknife got a confidence-boosting win in optional claiming company while earning a 94 speed figure. If he runs back to that form, he certainly stands a chance at hitting the board, if not winning. Use in all spots.

This son of Gun Runner has the pedigree to win at nine furlongs, and I'm willing to overlook his poor Lecomte performance. However, Cyberknife will likely get a wide trip, and he'll need to stay closer to the pace if he's to have any chance. Exotics.

9. We the People (7-2)

We the People is undefeated in two career starts, in which his speed figure improved from start one to start two. He won both with ease, and both wins came at Oaklawn. With his early running style, he’ll likely try to break quickly, get closer to the rail, and try to run the field off its hooves. Exotics.

By Constitution out of an unraced daughter of Tiznow, We the People is bred to run all day. His second dam is the classy Grade 1-winning Harmony Lodge, and distant relatives include Del Mar Futurity hero Pinehurst and 2018 Arkansas Derby winner Magnum Moon. The Rudy Brisset trainee has outside speed. Let's see how good he is. Win Contender.