Head to Head: Handicapping the 2019 Risen Star Stakes

 
Ashley

 
Laurie
 

Plus Que Parfait — If I’ve learned anything about the Fair Grounds’ Derby preps, it is this: there has not been a clean sweep in some time. So while War of Will will be the one to beat, I wouldn't be surprised to see this colt move up, especially after the roller derby he endured in the Lecomte. The rail is winning at a 20% clip, and Plus Que Parfait does like to be up near the lead. Exotics use.

Plus Que Parfait — As Ashley noted, the Brenden Walsh trainee bounced around from the gate, and the son of Point of Entry raced wide the entire race. He placed an even fifth, and is now back for a do-over. Plus Que Parfait has the speed to stay closer to the pace, if Leparoux will use it, so maybe we’ll see improvement this time around. Exotics.

Roiland — He is not quick out of the gate, and it has been costing him. In the Kentucky Jockey Club he broke slowly and moved up some. Last out in the Lecomte, he was slow into stride and again moved up but was never a threat. I suspect that as the distances get longer, his one-paced style will work out better. As it stands, I’ll pass here.

Roiland — Also returning from the Lecomte, Roiland took his sweet time coming out of the gate, followed the pack for much of the race, and passed a few tired horses in the stretch. The Tom Amoss trainee was off the board in his first stakes attempt last year. Hasn’t shown the ability to run with the stakes class. Pass.

Mr. Money — Fourth in the Breeder’s Cup Juvenile at long odds, Mr. Money will be making his seasonal debut. So was it a fluke or is he really as good as his last showing? Time will tell. His numbers do fit, so a win here would not be completely out of the question. Maybe.

Mr. Money — The son of Goldencents was ambitiously placed in the Juvenile, and placed a credible fourth after a poor trip. He’s been breezing well at Fairgrounds, but again appears in tough in his first start off a layoff. Only two horses in the last 13 years has pulled this off. Gun Runner was the latest.  Don’t think he can win it, but Mr. Money might place in the exotics.

Chase the Ghost — Definitely improved in his graded stakes debut in the Lecomte, but that was not enough. Ghostzapper progeny do tend to mature a little later than most, so maybe this will be a colt to watch in the second half of the year. For the Risen Star, no thanks.

Chase The Ghost — After winning his maiden, the Dallas Stewart trainee ran evenly in the LeCcmte after bumping at the start and running wide the entire way. Not impressed that Corey Lanerie abandons horse to stick with the other Stewart entry, Frolic More. Chase the Ghost has slowly improving speed figures, and the farther the better. Don’t count out closers from the Stewart barn! Exotics.

Henley’s Joy — Will be making his dirt debut after a so far successful career on the lawn. I do and do not understand this move. He doesn't look at all like a dirt runner, but Derby fever is easy to catch this time of year. Pass.

Henley's Joy — Now for something   completely different. If you’ve seen the past performances, you’ll note the son of Kitten’s Joy has done quite well as a turf horse. Many, including my esteemed colleague considers him an automatic toss. Not so fast. After multiple unsuccessful tries on turf, Henley’s Joy’s dam won her maiden in her first attempt on dirt. Kitten’s Joy has 26 dirt stakes winners, and Henley’s Joy looks comfortable breezing on dirt. Mike Maker captured the 2015 Risen Star with International Star and doesn’t ship for the fun of it. The question is, how will Henley’s Joy handle the dirt kickback? Guess we’ll find out. Longshot potential.

Hog Creek Hustle — My hunch bet turned out to be pretty good in the Lecomte. Even though he did not win, Hog Creek Hustle still got up to be a good second. If he repeats that effort, he could definitely be dangerous here. I’ll take him for at least another placing, if not a win.

Hog Creek Hustle — The son of Overanalyze looks good hustling past tired horses to earn a runner-up check in the Lecomte. In his last two starts, while he closed with a fury, he didn’t make up any ground on the winners. A fast early pace might help. Exotics.

Manny Wah — His name might be a bit ridiculous, but his chances aren’t. Third in the Lecomte, Manny Wah has been competitive in every career start except in the Iroquois as a juvenile. He had the lead early in the LeComte but could not hold off Will of War and Hog Creek Hustle. His best dirt speed is at the top, but he lost some form last out. Could still be an exotics contender.

Manny Wah — This half-brother to   Lookin’ at Lucky is a step below the top competition. I’m not convinced he wants two turns and he may have company on the pace. Pass.

Owendale — Has the highest last race speed rating and has consistently finished in the superfecta. Trainer Brad Cox knows how to win at Fair Grounds, but the outside posts have not been doing well this meet. A continued upward trend sees this one getting his picture taken. One to consider.

Owendale —Into Mischief’s son is ready to take a step forward after a professional victory over Frolic More   and Gun It. He doesn’t need the lead to win, and the duo of Cox and Shaun Bridgmohan is hitting at 42% together. On the negative side, Owendale’s late pace speed figures aren’t all that, and he’s previously finished behind Roiland and Limonite. Pass.

Country House — Has done well on the dirt since a terrible debut on the grass. He’s had three different jockeys in as many starts, but Luis Saez stays aboard after being in the irons for this colt’s first career win last out. This will also be his fourth different track in as many starts. Well-traveled, but no thanks.

Country House — The leggy son of   Lookin at Lucky didn’t beat much in his last start, but boy, did he do it impressively. Breaking from post 1, Country House took a left turn, brushed the rail, and promptly found himself six lengths behind the field. Saez gave Country House time to find his stride, then circled his rivals to power home by 3 1/2 lengths. Not impressive enough? How about the fact that his first quarter was 25.13 and his last was 23.78 over a speed-favoring track. Has longshot appeal at 20-1 on the morning line.

Limonite — As with Mr. Money, Limonite will be making his 2019 bow. Off since running third in a sloppy rendition of the Kentucky Jockey Club, this son of Lemon Drop Kid has been working well at Fair Grounds for trainer Steven Asmussen. Regular rider Ricardo Santana, Jr. was named aboard Gun It, also trained by Asmussen, which tells me everything I need to know. Pass.

Limonite — The son of Lemon Drop Kid is bred for turf, but has done just fine over the dirt. He’s had tough luck, beaten a neck in two of four starts. Limonite closed from the clouds to finish third in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes, and his final Trakus numbers were faster than Signalman and Plus Que Parfait. Steve Asmussen gave Limonite two quick breezes for the colt’s 2019 debut, including a second-to-last bullet. Additionally, Brian Hernandez, Jr. takes over the reins. Contender.

Dunph — Did not seem to appreciate the slop at Churchill Downs but bounced back well to be third in the Springboard Mile to close out his juvenile season. He gets a jockey upgrade to Jose Ortiz, but I’m not sure that will help much here. Pass.

Dunph — The dark bay gelding has shown moderate ability against restricted and listed runners. He was stuck on the outside in the Springboard mile and ran out of oats in the stretch. Appears a cut below. Pass.

Frolic More — Was second in an optional claimer last month, won by Owendale, but takes a step up in class here. Trainer Dallas Stewart has sent out some longshots to run second in the Kentucky Derby. That’s still a few months away. Pass.

Frolic More — More Than Ready’s son looked just ok in his 3-year-old debut. He bobbled at the start, but made up some ground to finish a clear second to Owendale. Nice, but nothing spectacular. The outside post won’t help. Pass.

War of Will — Has been untouched since moving from the turf to the dirt for trainer Mark Casse. However, he could not have gotten a poorer post position in this full field. Jockey Tyler Gaffalione stays aboard. Contender.

War Of Will — I’m embarrassed to admit that I didn’t fall for the hype of War of Will before his runaway triumph in the Lecomte. Gaffalione gave the bay son of War Front a perfect ride, stalking the early pace before overpowering the competition. War of Will likes to be up close early, and to maintain that running style, the jockey will need to send early to get a good position. Distance isn’t a factor, but he’ll need a sharp break from the far outside. Contender.

Gun It — Exits the same optional claimer as Owendale and Frolic More. From the family of Gun Runner, this colt has the pedigree to be exceptional. He will have a lot to overcome from the far outside post, but regular jockey Ricardo Santana, Jr. stays aboard rather than switching to Limonite.   Good enough for me.

Gun It — The pretty gray son of Tapit has shown shades of green in every start, and it cost him victories   in two of his three starts. The far outside post in the Risen Star won’t do him any favors. Talented, but needs to get his head into the game. Maybe blinkers would sort him out. Pass.

Ashley

Laurie 

#14 War of Will (5/2) 

#10 Limonite (10/1)

#6 Hog Creek Hustle (8/1)

#14 War of Will (5/2)

#3 Mr. Money (12/1)

#9 Country House (20/1)

#15 Gun It (10/1) 

#5 Henley's Joy (10-1)