Head to Head: Handicapping the 2019 Louisiana Derby

 
Ashley
 

 
Laurie
 

Roiland — Was once again slow into stride in the Risen Star (G2) but performed a bit better than I had anticipated. He managed to snag third and will have an extra sixteenth of a mile to try to run down War of Will. He was charging hard at the end, and with the wide trip James Graham gave him in the stretch, he reminded me very much of Drosselmeyer. Just keep pedaling, Graham, and maybe you will get your picture taken this time.

Roiland — The Tom Amoss trainee had a dirt cloud view of War of Will’s backside on the horizon in the first two legs of Fair Grounds' Derby preps. He made up ground to pass tired horses in the stretch of the Risen Star to place third, but as Ashley noted, he has no legitimate speed. His pedigree is that of a sprinter/miler. Lower exotics with a ground-saving trip.

Lemniscate — I’m confused as to why McPeek entered Lemniscate here. His dirt efforts against state-breds were OK, and he broke his maiden on the turf in open company last out. He does like to be out front and will certainly provide a nice target for War of Will, but I think he will ultimately back pedal in the stretch. Pass.

Lemniscate — So we have a last out maiden winner with a sprinter/miler pedigree on a speed-favoring turf course jumping up to contest a Grade 2 race against stakes horses at nine furlongs. Will likely be gunning it on the front end and will be the the first to run out of oats. Put him in the “what were they thinking?” category. Pass.

Limonite — Gave a fair accounting of himself in his seasonal debut in the Risen Star. He had to check at the 3/16ths pole when Country House started weaving. He was not getting to the top finishers, however, so that had little impact on his ultimate fifth-place finish. Once again, I’ll pass.

Limonite — The Asmussen colt had a tough time of it in the Risen Star. He stumbled coming out of the gate, then hit traffic behind Country House. Not that he was going to catch the top pair, but it might have cost him a placing. The son of Lemon Drop Kid should be fit in his second off a layoff, and Jose Ortiz takes over the reins. If he regains his 2-year-old form and gets a better trip, possible lower exotics contender.

Sueno — Has never been out of the trifecta in five career starts and enters this spot off consecutive runner-up finishes in graded company. We saw both Improbable and Game Winner lose their first race of the year due to the interruptions in training in the golden state. Sueno has at least started twice so far this year, so that gives him an advantage over those two. He did beat eventual Rebel winner Long Range Toddy in the Southwest (G3), so I have to consider him. Exotics

Sueno — His speed figures have improved in each start as a 3-year-old. He just missed in the Southwest last time out, and he runs like he’ll handle nine furlongs, although the pedigree is light for it. Contender.

By My Standards — Has run well in each start but just broke his maiden last out in his fourth career race. This will be a class test, and the colt’s speed figures do not hold up when compared with the top runners in the field. Pass.

By My Standards — Another last out maiden winner, but what makes him interesting is that his final 3/4 of mile in an earlier race on the Risen Star undercard was slightly faster than War of Will’s. Nine furlongs may be a little farther than he wants to go, but he’s an interesting longshot exotics contender. Note that Gabriel Saez sticks with him over By My Standard’s stablemate, Mr. Money.

War of Will — Despite the wide post, War of Will broke well and got a perfect stalking position in the Risen Star. In the stretch he ran straight and strong. Another effort like this here and War of Will could head to Kentucky as your Derby favorite. 

War Of Will — He’s one race away from  joining Pyro, Friesan Fire, and International Star as the latest to sweep the Louisiana preps for the Kentucky Derby. War of Will has a sharp, sweeping middle move that carries him to the front, giving him insurmountable leads. Can he do the same thing at nine furlongs and last? His main competition, Country House, has been off slow in his last two starts. Contender.

Mr. Money — I expected a bit more from this colt in the Risen Star, but it’s possible Mr. Money just needed the race after being off since running in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. Country House’s erratic course did cause Gabriel Saez to take him up and then he tired. I expect a fitter, sharper version this weekend. Bettors could catch some good odds, making him a good play underneath.

Mr. Money — In the Risen Star, the son of Goldencents raced along behind the pacesetters for much of the race, then had to take up slightly alter course behind a fading Gray Attempt and a directionless Country House. He ran evenly to finish seventh. Mr. Money returned to pose a sharp half mile breeze and gets a jock switch to high percentage rider Adam Beschizza. A wide trip won’t do him any favors. Lower exotics, maybe.

Country House — Tried to make me eat crow, translating a maiden victory into a second-place finish in the Risen Star. He made a good move to get up into second in the stretch but could not maintain a lane. It did not cost him this time, but lugging in going forward could get him disqualified. I’m going to take a risk and pass on this colt again.

Country House — While Ashley spits feathers out of her mouth, I’ll take the opposite stance on this erratic runner. The color of this Country House is green. He’s been off slow in his last two starts, and caused a traffic jam behind him in the Risen Star, weaving down the lane like he was on I-95 and late for work. Right now reminds me a bit of Solomini. He’s too talented not to include.   
 

Bankit — Ships in from Oaklawn, where he appeared to just not like the track after some solid performances at 2. But at 3, this Asmussen trainee has not shown me anything that indicates I should even consider him for the exotics. Pass.

Bankit — His pedigree and current race form says he’s up against it. Decent against state-bred types, but hasn’t shown he can run with the big boys. Pass.

Spinoff — Out of Grade 1-winning mare Zaftig, Spinoff demolished an optional claiming field in his last start at Tampa Bay Downs. It would be foolish to ignore a Todd Pletcher trainee on the Derby trail. He’s already Grade 2-placed and could be any kind. I wouldn’t play him on top, but I would definitely use him underneath.

Spinoff — This well-bred colt should improve with racing. He looked impressive beating nothing at Tampa Bay, and I like the way stretches out when he runs. This distance should be within his scope and hey, it’s Pletcher. Exotics contender.

Hog Creek Hustle — Took the scenic route in the Risen Star and, after being checked early, could only manage fourth. I liked the effort and still think he should be used in your exotic betting. The outside post won’t hurt him because he comes from well off the pace anyway. 

Hog Creek Hustle — There’s always that one horse who manages to find trouble; off slow, bothered, lugged in, checked, wide, etc. He tries hard, but just can’t get it together. Pedigree is iffy for nine furlongs. I predict he’ll be hustlin’ late, and maybe catch fourth or fifth place.

Ashley 

Laurie

#6 War of Will (6/5)

#6 War of Will (6/5)

#11 Hog Creek Hustle (12/1) 

#4 Sueno (8/1) 

#1 Roiland (12/1)

#8 Country House (9/2)

#4 Sueno (8/1)

#10 By My Standards (12/1)