Head to Head: Handicapping the Bluegrass Stakes

 
Ashley

 
Laurie
 

Somelikeithotbrown — With a colt this versatile, you have to take a shot at the Big Dance. Turf? Check. All weather? Check. Dirt? He certainly has the pedigree for it. And at 10-1, I have to take a shot. Contender.

Somelikeithotbrown — A pro for the Jeff Ruby Steaks (G3) winner: He’s speed on the rail. But he staggered through the stretch like he was in the last stages of a pub crawl. The dull final furlong of 14.21 seconds doesn’t impress me. Still, this isn’t the strongest field. Exotics.  

Vekoma — He was undefeated entering the Fountain of Youth (G2), and while he walked away with his first career loss, his third-place finish was solid off the layoff. I think he needed the race and will be much sharper here. Contender.

Vekoma — As Ashley said, Vekoma should be sharper the second time around. The drawback is his paddling gait. That takes energy to sustain. He’s one of the few in here with a graded stakes win, so have to consider.

Signalman — I’m really not sure what to do with Signalman. Prior to the Fountain of Youth, I thought he was an honest runner. That seventh-place finish was certainly nothing to write home about, but perhaps he just needed the race. He’s had a couple of sharp five-furlong works since then and should certainly be considered for the exotics, if not the win.

Signalman — I’m with Ashley on this one. No clue what happened with this guy in his 3-year-old debut. I don’t care for his pedigree going nine furlongs, but he does have back class. I’m ready to draw a line through the last. Contender.

Market King—Speedy Market King will break on top and try to wire the field, but his speed figures just do not fit with the best in this field. He did run third in his division of the Rebel (G2), but he was nowhere near the Top 2. Maybe he can hang around for a piece of the pie. Maybe he can’t. I think I’ll pass.

Market King — Ashley noted that his speed figures aren’t all that. I agree. But note that Jon Court does well with this guy and Market King is trained by sneaky D. Wayne Lukas. Improving speed figures, and could hit the lower exotics at long odds.

Chess Chief — A last out maiden winner, Chess Chief is diving right into the deep end in his graded debut. It would appear that he liked the added distance in getting his first win going 1 1/16 miles  after four failed attempts at six furlongs. Dallas Stewart is an expert at sending out longshots to run well in May at Churchill, but this is April at Keeneland. Pass.

Chess Chief — There’s some stoutness in the bottom half of this well-bred colt’s pedigree, and it looks like the lightbulb went on when he got to go two turns. Post-race breezes look good, plus Stewart knows how to get late-blooming 3-year-olds ready. Live longshot potential.

Dream Maker — How the heck is Dream Maker 12-1 on the morning line when he has never even placed in a graded race? I could be missing something, but there’s no way I would take odds this low on Dream Maker. Pass.

Dream Maker — In the Tampa Bay Derby, Dream Maker bumped around a bit at the start and looked rank while climbing. He also looked like he didn’t corner all that great. Doesn’t act or run like he want’s anything to do with the stakes scene. Pity, ‘cause he has a good stamina pedigree. Pass.

Admire — His best career race came in the slop at Churchill, so if it rains, I would certainly consider him. On a fast track, he has never been better than fifth, and two of those races were in graded company. Dale Romans better do a rain dance. Otherwise, hard pass.

Admire — Sorry, Ashley, no rain scheduled for Saturday.  Can’t find anything to admire about this one. Pass.

Win Win Win — This race should be a better indicator of whether Win Win Win wants to route. He ran a  solid third in the Tampa Bay Derby (G3) in his two-turn debut and figures to at least pick up a check here. I’m on the fence about his chances of winning, but he is a must-use in exotic wagering.

Win Win Win — In all but one start, this guy has made up ground in the stretch. Good speed figures, and never out of the money. Can sit anywhere in the field. He could be our win win winner.

Sir Winston — This Awesome Again colt looks like a better fit for synthetic races. His speed figures on dirt are comparable to the top of the field, but speed figures don’t win races, and Sir Winston has not even hit the board on a traditional track. Pass.

Sir Winston —  He made a late rush in the Tampa Bay Derby,  and sure, he was bested by four lengths. But he made up six in the stretch. Plus he has the pedigree to love the extra distance. Include. 

Lucky Lee — Trained by John Servis, Lucky Lee enjoyed being the big fish in a little pond at Parx but was overwhelmed in the Withers (G3) at Aqueduct. It was his first start in a couple months, but I don’t think a little sharpening will help anything. Pass.

Lucky Lee — Could be a need-the-lead sort, but doesn’t look like John Servis will follow brother Jason in winning a major prep. Pedigree says he should handle the distance if they let him loose on the lead. That can’t happen again, can it? Pass.

So Alive—I’m finding it difficult to pass up these morning line odds on a Todd Pletcher colt. His Sam F. Davis (G3) effort was nice considering he broke slowly and was bumped during the running. I’m willing to give him another shot here and will definitely use him underneath at the very least.

So Alive — The Silver Fox and Luis Saez at 15-1? Out of the money only once, Vino Rosso's half-brother sports decent late pace speed figures and a pedigree to enjoy the distance. I agree with Ashley. He deserves another shot.

Parsimony — Doug O’Neill is swinging for the fences in putting a maiden in the Blue Grass. Is this one the next Irap? He was well beaten in the Rebel (G2) in his last outing, and, judging by his half-sister Lovely Loyree, would be better suited for the lawn. Pass.

Parsimony — Hasn’t finished in the same zip code as Gunmetal Gray and Roadster, among others, and appears to have a case of second-itis. I see green in his future, and it isn’t a check for the winner’s share of the Bluegrass. Pass.

Moonster — By Malibu Moon, Moonster moved up when switching from dirt to synthetics when running third in the Jeff Ruby. I’m thinking that or turf is the way to go with this colt. Pass.

Moonster — Have seen faster snails. Pass. 

Aquadini — This colt’s last two efforts have been solid, but in lesser company. Parking wide certainly does not help Aquadini’s chances while stepping up in class. Part of me wants to like him given his highest last-race speed figure, but I just can’t get past the rest. Pass.

Aquadini — Well, look, another Stewart colt. Nice pedigree and should handle the distance. Outside post isn’t that great, and Corey Lanerie will either have to go early to get position or stay wide. Maybe exotics, with a good trip.

Ashley 

 Laurie

#1 Somelikeithotbrown (10/1)

#11 So Alive (15/1)

#2 Vekoma (9/5)

#8 Win Win Win (7/2)

#11 So Alive (15/1)

#9 Sir Winston (15/1)

#3 Signalman (5/1)

#5 Chess Chief (30-1)