Head to Head: Handicapping Monday’s 2024 Smarty Jones

The $300,000, 1 1/16-mile Smarty Jones Stakes is the first stop on Oaklawn’s road to the Kentucky Derby. Monday’s edition attracted a field of nine led by D. Wayne Lukas’s Grade 1 veteran Just Steel.

First run in 2008, none of the Smarty Jones winners went on to finish in the top four in the Kentucky Derby. But 2009 winner Flat Out and 2011 winner Caleb’s Posse had distinguished careers. The 2015 winner Far Right won the Southwest Stakes (G3) in his next start and was second in the Arkansas Derby (G1) behind eventual Triple Crown winner American Pharoah. The 2013 winner Will Take Charge also won the Rebel (G2), and 2021 winner Caddo River went on to run second in the Arkansas Derby (G1).

The Smarty Jones Stakes is carded as race 9 on Oaklawn’s 10-race New Year’s Day card. Post time is 5:14 p.m. EST.

Ashley Tamulonis of From Coast to Coast and Laurie Ross of Pedigree Power temporarily put aside new year’s festivities to preview 2024’s first official Kentucky Derby prep race.

Laurie: The one-paced Informed Patriot finished third in his last two starts and lost ground both times. In the Street Sense Stakes, he was kept on the rail and steadied slightly twice while green. The Steve Asmussen trainee had no excuse in his next start, an optional claimer. With Brisnet Speed Ratings in the solid mid-80s, this full brother to 2019 Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile hero Spun to Run needs to improve to win but could run well enough to hit the exotics.

Ashley: By Hard Spun, Informed Patriot is just 1-for-4 lifetime with a pair of third-place finishes in his last two outings. The colt’s debut race has only produced two eventual winners, Informed Patriot and Chaperone. The race in which Informed Patriot broke his maiden has only produced one winner. More recently, the colt was third to Grade 3 winner Liberal Arts in the 1 1/16-mile Street Sense (G3) and third to undefeated stakes winner Who Dey in a one-mile, $100,000 optional claimer. The son of Hard Spun’s top Equibase Speed Figure was the 88 he earned when breaking his maiden. Trained by Steve Asmussen, Informed Patriot reunites with Ricardo Santana Jr., who rode him in his debut. Exotics.

2. Catching Freedom (9-2)

Laurie: Catching Freedom had an excuse in his second start, an optional claimer at Churchill. He was stuck behind a wall of horses through the stretch and had to steady about a half-furlong from home, unable to get a clear run. Despite this, the Brad Cox trainee made up a little ground once he saw daylight. Constitution’s son is out of stakes winner and multiple graded placed Catch My Drift, and he’s a half to multiple graded placed Bishop’s Bay and stakes placed Strava. Catching Freedom’s speed rating jumped from an initial 83 to 90 and is capable of further improvement. The flaw in the armor is the jock switch to Cristian Torres, who seeks his first win of the meet after 19 attempts. Exotics.

Ashley: By Constitution, Catching Freedom was a debut winner for trainer Brad Cox, taking a one-mile, $120,000 maiden event by 3 3/4 lengths. The colt ran into trouble early but made a wide, sweeping move off the turn to grab the win. Only the runner-up from this race has returned a winner. Last out, Catching Freedom was fourth behind undefeated Parchment Party and Lagynos, who was third. He was beaten by just 2 1/4 lengths, and his Equibase Speed Figure improved from 83 to 88. In that race, Chasing Freedom first tried to split horses then attempted to move to the outside but was thwarted and had to settle for fourth despite having a full head of steam. Cristian Torres takes over from Florent Geroux, who will be riding at Fair Grounds. Contender.

3. Lagynos (6-1)

Laurie: In his initial try on the dirt, Lagynos returned against Catching Freedom in an optional claimer. Lagynos athletically cut the corner into the stretch, then battled with the eventual second-place finisher. It was a decent effort, and the Asmussen trainee returned to win his next start, this time rating on the outside. He drew clear by 1 3/4 lengths after battling down the stretch with multiple rivals. It’s a case of who did he beat, since only one of five opponents returned to hit the board in their next outing. Kantharos’s son is a half to multiple stakes-winning turf sprinter-miler Vision Perfect. Lagynos posted a 93 late-pace speed rating, the highest in the Smarty Jones field. Contender.

Ashley: By Kantharos, Lagynos (named after a jug typically used as a wine pot) debuted a winner for trainer Steve Asmussen in a 6 1/2-furlong turf race at Kentucky Downs. Asmussen moved him to the dirt at Churchill Downs for his second start, where he finished a good third, beaten by just 1 3/4 lengths. He earned a field- and career-best 89 Equibase Speed Figure for the surface-distance for that effort. The intent was to put him back on the turf for his third start, but that race came off the lawn and resulted in a 1 3/4-length triumph for the colt. In those three starts, Lagynos had three different jockeys, but Joel Rosario, who was aboard in the colt’s last race, retains the mount for the Smarty Jones. Contender.

4. Mystik Dan (5-1)

Laurie: After graduating by a sharp 7 3/4 lengths in his second start, Mystik Dan stretched to a mile, flashed early speed then regressed against optional claimers, including Informed Patriot, and was bested by eight lengths. Although Goldencents’s son’s second dam is a full sister to Grade 1 hero Siphonic, there’s little black type in the first two generations of Mystik Dan’s distaff line. The Ken McPeek trainee needs to capture his previous form to be competitive. He showed speed on the lead in his second start at seven furlongs and earned a 93 late-pace rating, but the big question is whether Mystik Dan can carry his speed. Exotics.

Ashley: By Goldencents, Mystik Dan attempted to take his debut race at Keeneland gate-to-wire but conceded the lead inside the final sixteenth and settled for second. He cut back from 6 1/2 furlongs to 5 1/2 furlongs for his second start and dominated the $120,000 event at Churchill Downs by 7 3/4 lengths. He earned a career- and field-best 102 Equibase Speed Figure for that sprinting win. He stretched out to a mile in his third start and finished fifth as the favorite, beaten by eight lengths, in the same race Informed Patriot also exits. His speed figure drastically dropped to 69. He raced up close to a hot pace, and three of the colts who finished in front of him came from off the pace. It’s too early to say whether he simply tired or doesn’t want the distance. Julien Leparoux takes over from Brian Hernandez Jr., who will be riding at Fair Grounds, for trainer Kenny McPeek. Exotics.

5. Mo Winning (20-1)

Laurie: Mo Winning graduated at first asking against a soft Remington field, getting six furlongs in 1:11.17, and his final furlong in 13.31. He received an 81 Brisnet Speed Rating for his efforts, and his late-pace figure of 82 is squarely in the middle of his Smarty Jones rivals. Mo Town’s son has no black-type earners in the first two generations of his distaff line. However, his third dam is multiple Grade 1-placed Til Forbid. It’s hard to tell what this colt will do. He showed some talent in his debut, but as Ashley noted, the trainer is stuck in a cold spell. Pass.

Ashley: By Mo Town, Mo Winning was a debut winner for trainer Robertino Diodoro on Nov. 13. The colt dueled throughout the six-furlong affair at Remington Park before pulling away from that foe and repelling other challenges to win by four lengths. He received a 74 Equibase Speed Figure. One colt was a next-out winner while another hit the board while dropping into maiden-claiming company. Harry Hernandez, who just returned to the saddle after being sidelined with a collarbone injury Nov. 25, has the call. Diodoro has not saddled a winner in the last 30 days. Pass.

6. Gettysburg Address (7-2)

Laurie: Gettysburg Address showed improvement in his first start against winners in the Street Sense, despite a speed-fade result. His Brisnet figure jumped from 76 to 84, and if we take into account the typical maiden regression shown by many of Brad Cox’s maiden winners, Gettysburg Address should bounce back, especially with the blinkers off. By Constitution, Gettysburg Address is out of the multiple graded-winning Jojo Warrior. She’s a three-quarter sister to Grade 1 heroine A Z Warrior, plus a half to graded winner E Z Warrior, and stakes winner J Z Warrior. Contender.

Ashley: By Constitution, Gettysburg Address was a debut winner for trainer Brad Cox. The bay colt chased the pace in the six-furlong event at Ellis Park before just getting up to win by three-quarters of a length. Last out in the Street Sense (G3), Gettysburg Address set the initial pace before weakening and finishing fourth, beaten by 7 1/4 lengths. Cox takes the blinkers off for the colt’s third start, and he strikes at a 33 percent clip, 78 percent in the money, with that angle. Flavien Prat retains the mount. Exotics.

7. Just Steel (9-5)

Laurie: Just Steel is the most experienced in the Smarty Jones field with seven starts under his girth but only two victories. Joel Rosario got Just Steel to relax off a fast pace in the Ed Brown Stakes, pass tired horses and win by 2 1/2 lengths. The Wane Lukas trainee’s speed ratings hit the mid-90s twice but have been unremarkable overall. Justify’s son has a solid turf pedigree and high leg action. He’s a half to two group-stakes winners, and his dam is an Australia Group 1 winner. Just Steel beat a few minor stakes horses in the Ed Brown and was flattered by the runner-up Agoo, who returned to finish third in the Sugar Bowl at Fair Grounds. It’s telling that Rosario sticks with Lagynos instead of Just Steel. I’d really like to see this colt on the lawn, and perhaps he'll wind up there eventually. Exotics.

Ashley: By Justify, Just Steel either shows up or doesn’t. In seven career starts, he’s cobbled together a 2-1-1 record. Unlike most in this field, Just Steel has faced the best of the best, though he did not fare well either time. He was seventh in the Hopeful (G1), beaten by 7 3/4 lengths, and sixth in the Breeders’ Futurity (G1), beaten by 16 lengths. In both races, Just Steel set the early pace before giving way. Trainer D. Wayne Lukas gave the son of Justify class after following the Breeders’ Futurity, and the colt responded with a third, beaten by eight lengths, in a seven-furlong optional claimer in the slop at Churchill Downs and a win in the 6 1/2-furlong Ed Brown Stakes, also at Churchill. Ramon Vazquez, who has never ridden this colt before, has the call. Lukas is another on a cold streak, with no wins in the last 30 days, according to Race Lens. He’s also winning stakes races at just an 8 percent clip. I can kind of see the logic of Just Steel being the favorite here, but I can’t play him on top at 9-5. Use underneath.

8. Chaperone (30-1)

Laurie: Chaperone is a large, lumbering, one-paced sort. Although he made up ground in his second and third starts, the Ron Moquett trainee needed a drop in class to Remington Park to get the job done. He also stayed a little closer to the pace, but his final time of 1:20.41 for 6 1/2 furlongs, even over a sloppy track, wasn’t inspiring. Curlin’s son is out of It Tiz Well, winner of the Cotillion (G1) and runner-up in the Alabama (G1), Santa Anita Oaks (G1) and a pair of G3s. Chaperone’s speed ratings are in the mid-70s, and he’ll need to show more to be competitive. Pass.

Ashley: It took Chaperone four attempts to finally get his picture taken. His first three starts came at Saratoga and Churchill, where he finished seventh, third and seventh, beaten by a combined 25 1/4 lengths. In all three of those races, the Curlin colt was never a real threat, racing as far back as 13 1/2 lengths off the pace. Trainer Ron Moquett then moved Chaperone to Remington Park and dropped him into a $34,000 maiden event. With Keith Asmussen up, Chaperone initially was last of five but advanced up the rail willingly, made a three-wide move in the far turn and battled the runner-up down the length of the stretch to prevail by three-quarters of a length. Keith Asmussen retains the mount for Ron Moquett, who is zero percent in stakes races. Pass.

9. Fidget (15-1)

Laurie: Undefeated on dirt and turf in Indiana, Fidget gets a class check. His Brisnet ratings improved on dirt in his last start, but his final furlong of 13.61 seconds wasn’t spectacular. Fidget’s dam and her full sister are stakes placed. The third generation of his distaff line includes a mix of dirt and turf stakes winners, including Breeders’ Cup Classic hero Raven’s Pass, his hardy multiple stakes-winning half-brother Gigawatt, plus Grade 1 winners No Matter What and Rainbow View. Fidget is worth a long-shot look.

Ashley: By More Than Ready, Fidget made his first two career starts on the lawn. In his debut, he pressed the pace from seventh and there he remained, losing ground to check in 15 lengths behind the winner. In his second start, Fidget pressed the pace from second then dueled to the wire, prevailing by a neck. For his third start, trainer Brad Cox switched the colt to dirt. Again, Fidget was up on the pace and again, he won, this time by a length in a one-mile allowance race at Indianapolis. Martin Chaun has the call for Cox. Pass.

Final thoughts

Laurie: Speed rules in the Smarty Jones Stakes. Only two closers won in the last 10 years, while pacesetters won most of the time, including six of the last seven editions.

Only one Smarty Jones winner finished worse than third in their final prep, and the last five won. Four of 10 favorites won, and three failed to hit the board. Trainers Cox, McPeek, Lukas and Asmussen won the last four editions of the Smarty Jones.

With that in mind, we’re looking for a pacesetter who finished no worse than fourth in their last start.

I settled on Gettysburg Address on top. I love his pedigree and he should be stronger for the Smarty Jones. Mystic Dan and Fidget should also be up close and if either one get the lead and can sustain the drive, we could see an upset. Let’s wing it.

Ashley: With Oaklawn just opening for its winter meet on Dec. 8, none in the field have the advantage of having a prior race over this track. Conditions in Hot Springs, Ark., are expected to be sunny and cold on Monday, making for a fast track and a level playing field.

The pace scenario looks like it could be a contested one. Mystik Dan likes to have the early lead, but I anticipate Just Steel will be close up, too. Informed Patriot, Mo Winning and Gettysburg Address have all shown early speed in their past races, and Fidget showed a new dimension last out by being close to the pace.

Although Just Steel is the only Grade 1-tested colt in the field, he never came close to winning either of those two races. He did earn black type last out in a sprint, however. Informed Patriot and Gettysburg Address both contested the Street Sense, finishing third and fourth respectively, but that event was held over a sloppy track, so both colts can improve on a fast track.

Circling back to the speed scenario, I’m looking for a colt that will relax off that early pace. With that said, I’m looking hard at Lagynos. He’s already had two races at the Smarty Jones distance with a win and a show. He has the best Equibase Speed Figures for the distance and surface of the Smarty Jones with an 89 and an 88. Mystik Dan and Just Steel both own better overall speed figures, but those came in sprints. Catching Freedom also has an 88 speed figure for the Smarty Jones distance and surface. So I’m playing those two on top and going from there.

Selections