Head to Head: Handcapping the 2023 Kentucky Jockey Club

LAURIE

ASHLEY

1. Awesome Road (7-2)

Awesome Road had a case of road rash in the Claiborne Breeders' Futurity (G1) when he finished second-to-last, paved by 18 lengths. The Claiborne farm-bred colt is by Quality Road out of Pulpit's full sister, Orate. The mare previously produced the English Group 3 winner Whitecliffsofdover and restricted winner Endless Chatter. The Brad Cox trainee prepped with two sharp five-furlong works at Churchill. Awesome Road has speed on the rail and blinkers off. He could rebound. Exotics.

By Quality Road, Awesome Road debuted a winner for trainer Brad Cox in a 6-furlong, $70,000 maiden event at Ellis Park. The colt earned a field-best 93 Equibase speed figure for the effort. Two from that race were next out winners, including the runner-up who also went on to finish second in the Bob Hope (G3). Last out, Awesome Road ran up the track in the Breeders’ Futurity (G1), finishing seventh, 18 1/2 lengths behind the winner. There was no apparent reason for the poor effort, though sitting off the pace may have contributed to the issue. But sometimes young horses just are inconsistent. Flavien Prat, who was aboard in the Breeders’ Futurity, retains the mount. Use underneath.

2. Honor Marie (8-1)

Honor Marie caught a sloppy track in an optional claiming level event in his second race and needed some time to get used to it. He climbed early while losing ground but got the hang of it around the half-mile pole. He circled the field, closing with every stride on the promising Otto the Conqueror, but ran out of ground. Honor Mare is by multiple Grade 1 winner Honor Code out of a Grade 2-placed turf miler, and his half-brother Abarta is a Grade 2-placed on the turf. The second generation of his female family is filled with international turf stakes winners. Worth an exotics look. 

By Honor Code, Honor Marie debuted a winner for trainer Whitworth Beckman in a 6-furlong, $92,000 maiden event at Churchill Downs. The colt earned an 83 Equibase speed figure for the effort. Last out, Honor Marie was 2nd in a 7-furlong allowance race contested in the slop at Churchill Downs. He put in his typical rally and just edged past the third-place finisher inside the final sixteenth. Honor Marie’s speed figure improved to a 90 despite not winning. Regular jockey Rafael Bejarano retains the mount. Trainer Beckman is just six percent (29 percent in the money) in stakes races but does win at a 17 percent clip with sprint-to-route runners. Use underneath.

3. Real Men Violin (5-1)

Composed by Mendelssohn out of an unraced half-sister to Grade 1 winner I Want Revenge, Real Men Violin finally made it to the winner’s circle in his fifth start. He didn’t care for the muddy kickback early in the race, so Brian Hernandez, Jr. let the colt settle in the clear near the back of the pack. The pair faced a wall of horses at the quarter pole and had to make a quick decision – cut the corner or go wide. Hernandez opted for the former, and Real Men Violin athletically cut the corner while in tight. Hernandez then took him outside the tiring pacesetter, picked up the tempo, and won by a half-length, getting his final furlong in an adagietto-like 13.30 seconds. The Ken McPeek trainee has competed on all surfaces at four tracks and always hit the board. For the most part, his Brisnet speed ratings have improved, hitting a 95 with a 105 late-pace figure in his last start, the highest in this field. Real Men Violin has tactical speed, and he can close or press the pace. Contender.

By Mendelssohn, Real Men Violin has never been off the board in five career starts, racing on turf, dirt, and in the slop. A Kenny McPeek trainee, the colt was a maiden up until his last start when he finally broke through with a win in a one-mile, $120,000 maiden event in the slop at Churchill Downs. He earned a field-best 91 Equibase speed figure for the effort. One of the horses from Real Men Violin’s debut race went on to run 3rd in the Breeders’ Futurity, and two other runners from the colt’s fourth race were also next-out winners. Brian Hernandez, Jr. retains the mount for McPeek. Contender.

4. Dancing Groom (10-1)

Dancing Groom climbed and switched leads over Aqueduct’s sloppy track in Champagne (G1). Once the Antonio Sano trainee found his rhythm, he swung his partner Trevor McCarthy about 10 wide and passed tired horses to earn third place behind Timberlake and General Partner in a workmanlike effort. By no. 2 first-crop sire Vino Rosso, Dancing Groom is the second foal out of a Bernardini mare. His second dam is a multiple stakes-winning miler, and his family's third generation includes graded winning turf routers. At Gulfstream, Sano gave Dancing Groom a 59.67-second five-furlong breeze in company with an unraced 2-year-old. Dancing Groom was pushed to catch his mate around the turn and was scrubbed to keep up. Not impressed. Pass.

By Vino Rosso, Dancing Groom enters off a distant 3rd in the Champagne (G1) in his third career start. The colt debuted at Saratoga, running 6th. He won in his next outing in a one-mile off-the-turf event, also at Saratoga, over what has thus far proven to be a terrible field; none from that race have won in subsequent starts, and only one has even hit the board. In the Champagne, Dancing Groom did beat eventual Breeders’ Cup Juvenile hero Fierceness, but Fierceness ran a green race in the mud that day. Javier Castellano takes over from Trevor McCarthy for trainer Antonio Sano, and the two have only paired up once in the last year, failing to hit the board. Pass.

5. Nomos (12-1)

Todd Pletcher shakes things up by switching Nomos to dirt after a surprising twelfth-place finish in the Bourbon (G2). Nomos wasn’t a happy camper in traffic the entire way before switching to the far outside. He struggled down the lane, swishing his tail while being asked. Uncle Mo’s son is out of a multiple stakes-placed turf miler. His full sister, Soviet Excess, is a Grade 2 winner on the lawn but won and placed both times she competed over fast dirt. Pletcher gave Nomos a pre-race four-furlong work in 47.80 seconds, third best of 69. Nomos breezed on the Saratoga dirt in July in company, handling the surface well. He carries his head low, switches leads correctly, has a steady rhythm, and galloped out slightly in front of his partner, eventual Street Sense (G3) runner-up Moonlight. Worth a long-shot exotics look. 

By Uncle Mo, Nomos will be making his first dirt start for trainer Todd Pletcher. The colt debuted a winner at Monmouth but failed to hit the board in the With Anticipation (G3), where he was fourth beaten by four lengths, and the Bourbon (G2), where he was 12th beaten by 5 1/2 lengths. The colt’s best Equibase speed figure is a 76, and he’s had a different rider for each of his three starts. Luis Saez, who was aboard in the Bourbon, retains the mount. Pass.

6. Stretch Ride (3-1)

The promising Stretch Ride is undefeated in two starts and bested two next-out winners in his debut. His next outing was against a so-so field of $100,000 optional claimers, most of whom struggled to hit the board in their previous starts, so the 5 3/4-length win margin was to be expected. Street Sense’s son is out of a stakes-placed Quality Road mare. The class skips to the third generation, anchored by Stretch Ride’s third dam, the Grade 1 winning sprinter-miler, Flat Fleet Feet. Dale Romans tightened the screws for Stretch Ride’s last two breezes, giving him a second-best five-furlong work in 1:00.20 and a three-furlong lung opener in 37.20 seconds. Stretch Ride has tactical speed, and while his speed ratings are in the mid-80s, they improved, which is always a good sign. Contender.

By Street Sense, Stretch Ride is undefeated in two starts. Trained by Dale Romans, the colt debuted in a six-furlong, $120,000 maiden event at Churchill Downs, beating two next-out winners. He then triumphed over winners by 5 3/4 lengths in a 1 1/16-mile allowance race at Keeneland, and only one from that race has made a subsequent start, finishing fourth. Stretch Ride’s Equibase speed figure improved from an 83 in his debut to an 88 last out. Regular rider Martin Chuan retains the mount for trainer Dale Romans. Romans is just four percent (42 percent in the money) in stakes races. Contender.

7. Risk It (5-2)

After graduating at first asking against a nondescript herd at Saratoga, Risk It shipped to Churchill and tried a longer distance against winners in the Iroquois (G3). Risk It didn’t want any part of West Saratoga in the stretch, moving laterally away and backing down. The antic almost cost him second place as he barely held off the late-charging Liberal Arts by a neck. Gun Runner’s son is the first blacktype earner out of a Wedding Jitters, a Broke Vow mare. She’s a half to a couple of minor stakes winners. The third generation of his family includes a pair of hard-knocking stakes horses, Skipshot and Skip Code, who started a combined 78 times. Steve Asmussen gave Risk It a sharp five-furlong 1:00.40 second-to-last breeze, the best of a trio of works at the distance. Contender.

By Gun Runner, Risk It debuted a winner for trainer Steven Asmussen in a 6-furlong, $136,500 maiden event at Saratoga. The colt took that race gate-to-wire, earning a 91 Equibase speed figure over a field that has not produced any other winners. Last out, Risk It was second in the Iroquois (G3), losing by 1 3/4 lengths as the favorite. Tyler Gaffalione retains the mount for Asmussen. Contender.

8. One Red Cent (20-1)

After five out-of-the-money finishes, trainer Jon Jazdzewski switched jocks to Gerardo Corrales and changed One Red Cent’s running style to a pacesetter from a one-run closer. The tactics yielded instant success, with a narrow head defeat and then a 1 1/4 length victory in maiden claiming events. This would have excited me, thinking I’d stumbled upon a live longshot – until I noticed his tepid high 70’s speed ratings and slow final numbers. I’m not betting a cent, red or otherwise, on this one. Pass. 

By Dominus, One Red Cent is the veteran of the group, having made 7 starts for trainer Jon Jazdzewski. The gelding finally got his picture taken last out, winning a high-level maiden claiming race over this very track with a career-best 82 Equibase speed figure. Gerardo Corrales, who was aboard for One Red Cent’s last two races (certainly his best two on the drop in class), retains the mount for Jazdzewski, who has never had a stakes starter. Pass.