Head to Head: 3 Grade 1 winners line up for Acorn showdown

Laurie

Ashley

1. Scottish Lassie (12-1)

Off since a fourth-place finish in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies, Scottish Lassie surfaced in a one-mile allowance contest at Aqueduct on May 1. The Jorge Abreu runner fought every step of the way and got a little leg-weary near the wire, finishing third by three lengths. It was more than six lengths back to the rest. She earned a poor 76 Brisnet Speed Rating for the effort. Scottish Lassie posted a pair of five-furlong works, including a sharp pre-race bullet in 58.16 seconds, in company with grade 2 heroine Jody’s Pride. She pressed the older filly but stayed about a half-length behind without being asked for her best. So far, Second-Crop Sire McKinzie’s offspring are distance challenged, although his son Baeza was third in the Kentucky Derby. Scottish Lassie’s distaff line is speed-oriented. She will have company on the front end and must up her game to be competitive in the Acorn. Pass.

Trained by Jorge Abreu, Scottish Lassie is lightly raced with just one start in 2025. She debuted a distant third behind winner Quickick over Saratoga as a juvenile. She followed that up with a runaway, maiden victory in the Frizette (G1) in just her second start. She ended 2024 with a fourth-place run in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies, beaten by seven lengths. She made her first start off a six-month layoff in a high level optional claimer, running third after an awkward start and then weakening late. Abreu wins at a 27% clip with a 45% in-the-money rate with runners second off the layoff over the last year. I’m not wild about this filly’s speed figures. Her top Brisnet Speed Rating is the 92 she picked up winning the Frizette, and her top Equibase Speed Figure is the 89 she received in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies. Distance could also be an issue, but Irad Ortiz Jr. has the mount. Live long shot.

2. Good Cheer (1-2)

Undefeated Kentucky Oaks winner, Good Cheer, has been untested in all seven starts. She has tactical speed and earned a career-best 95 Brisnet Speed Rating in the Oaks drawing away in the stretch. The Brad Cox runner didn’t miss a beat and posted two five-furlong works in the 1:00 range at Churchill prior to her score. The only drawback is she hasn’t raced at Saratoga. Top contender.

There aren’t enough good things to say about Good Cheer. She hasn’t done one thing wrong, staying perfect through seven starts. She didn’t even blink twice when faced with sloppy conditions for the first time in the Kentucky Oaks. The big question, however, is whether she will fall victim to the dreaded “Graveyard of Champions” curse. Time will tell. Regular jockey Luis Saez will get the leg up. The one to beat.

3. La Cara (10-1)

La Cara was pushed early to get the lead in the Kentucky Oaks and set a solid pace while being pressed the entire way. She backed up to ninth place with a furlong to go. By Street Sense, out of a full sister to Grade 1 winners To Honor and Serve and Angela Renee, La Cara may find 1 1/8 miles a touch too far against top company, especially as a pacesetter with other early speed types. However, unlike her pacesetting rivals, the Mark Casse runner has experience over sloppy tracks and has won at Saratoga. Exotics.

Trained by Mark Casse, speedy La Cara set a lively tempo in the slop in the Kentucky Oaks before ultimately fading to ninth, 13 lengths behind winner Good Cheer. In her final Oaks prep, La Cara led her seven rivals on a merry chase, winning the Ashland (G1) by 1 1/4 lengths with a career and field best 105 Equibase speed figure and a 92 Brisnet Speed Rating. I believe the mud was the key factor at Churchill Downs, as it was her second career start over the surface, and she ran poorly in both races. I expect an improvement if Mother Nature graces Saratoga with good weather this weekend. Bonus points for already having a win at Saratoga, an eight-length victory over a maiden field that included Quickick. Dylan Davis has the return call. Exotics.

4. Shred the Gnar (3-1)

Shred the Gnar is a neck away from being undefeated in three starts. The Todd Pletcher charge dominated maidens and allowance types in her last two starts and showed that she could settle off the pace in her debut.

Shred the Gnar’s full brother Owendale won a pair of Grade 3 derbies at 1 1/8 miles. Shred the Gnar’s Brisnet Speed Ratings have improved in each start and her late-pace figures are the highest in the Acorn field. Exotics.

Trained by Brian Lynch, Shred the Gnar is a neck away from perfection. (What is “gnar,” you ask? It’s slang for challenging terrain or conditions, particularly snow or waves). She was a gaining second on debut after pressing the pace, but when unleashed on the lead, she won her next two starts by a combined 13 1/2 lengths, earning her the right to face the big girls. She brings a field-best 97 Brisnet Speed Rating and a 104 Equibase speed figure to the table from her last outing. Her Brisnet and Equibase numbers have improved with each start. It’s worth mentioning that even though she ran on the Oaks undercard, she did not face the same sloppy conditions as the fillies returning from the Oaks because her optional claiming event was the first race on the card. Regular jockey Luis Saez, who sticks with Good Cheer, will be replaced by Jose Ortiz. Contender.

5. Bless the Broken (10-1)

Wide throughout the Kentucky Oaks, Bless the Broken made a sustained rally to finish third and was closing on Drexel Hill at the end. The Will Walden trainee’s speed ratings improved in her last three starts but show that she’s a one-paced closer. She could benefit from quick early fractions and has picked up a check in six of eight career starts. Exotics.

Trained by William Walden, Bless the Broken closed willingly to get up for third in the Kentucky Oaks. Runner-up Drexel Hill took advantage of a more ground saving trip to outkick Bless the Broken, who broke from gate 12, for the place. As the Bourbonette Oaks winner, I didn’t give much credence to this filly, something reflected by her 18-1 odds. She did get an ideal pace setup and obviously didn’t mind the mud. The Oaks was the second time that she’s hit the board when facing Good Cheer, and unlike in the Rachel Alexandra (G2) when there were only two other fillies in the race, she did it on the big stage and against a field full of the nation’s top 3-year-old fillies. Walden has dropped to 7% wins and 29% in-the-money in graded stakes over the last year. John Velazquez gets the return call. Exotics.

6. Look Forward (15-1)

Look Forward captured the Eight Belles (G2) in her last start by 1 1/4 lengths. However, she’s winless around two turns, beaten a combined 23 3/4 lengths in all starts past seven furlongs. Pass.

Trained by Mike McCarthy, Look Forward won the seven-furlong Eight Belles (G2) on the Kentucky Oaks undercard. Like Shred the Gnar, she mostly avoided the slop with an earlier post time. However, while Shred the Gnar raced over a completely fast track, there had been some rain by post time for the Eight Belles (G2), resulting in a sealed, fast track for Look Forward. Like Good Cheer, Look Forward received a 95 Brisnet Speed Rating. Look Forward will be out of her element in the Acorn, however, as she has shown to prefer sprints. In races longer than seven furlongs, she’s 3: 0-1-0 with a seventh place in the Honeybee (G3) and a sixth in the Ashland (G1). Umberto Rispoli has the return call from the Eight Belles (G2). Pass.

7. Quickick (20-1)

Also by McKinzie, Quickick is back at the scene of her last and only victory. The Tom Amoss runner showed promise in last year’s stakes but hasn’t put it together this year and was bested a combined 27 lengths in her previous three starts. Her pedigree suggests she’ll be happier as a sprinter-miler. Pass.

Trained by Tom Amoss, Quickick continued to show regression in the Kentucky Oaks. She raced at the back of the field but ended up finishing mid-pack in seventh, beating just the fillies that were going backward. She’s failed to hit the board in any start this year and could use some class relief. Amoss is winless with a 24% in-the-money rate in graded stakes over the past year. Flavien Prat takes over from Umberto Rispoli, who rides Look Forward. Pass.