Head to Head: Florida Derby picks and predictions

Ashley

Laurie

Strike Power — He loves the Gulfstream Park track. He was a good second in his first attempt around two turns, running second to Promises Fulfilled in the Fountain of Youth (G2). He has an ideal post in the rail position and will likely use that to his advantage in establishing the lead. Of course, Promises Fulfilled did manage to snag the lead from post nine last time and will be much closer to the rail Saturday. Trainer Mark Hennig has Strike Power sharp, and he could be dangerous.

Strike Power — I agree, Ashley, that speed from the rail is always dangerous at Gulfstream. By Speightstown, out of a multiple stakes-winning turf router, Strike Power should have the distance within his scope, especially with the ground saving pace. If he inches away from them in the second part of the race, the Henning trainee will be hard to catch. Win contender.

Millionaire Runner — He's the field's "why?" horse last seen finishing fourth in an optional claimer. Fellow runner Tip Sheet was third in that race. The only time this colt won was in a maiden claiming event. Trainer Jaime Mejia is 0-for-9 in graded stakes. Millionaire Runner is 0-for-3 on the Gulfstream main track and has never been better than fourth here. Pass.

Millionaire Runner — So who owes the racing secretary a favor? Ashley said it best. The son of Warrior’s Reward pressed the pace and lead briefly last year in the Remsen Stakes, but finished 19 lengths behind the winner, Catholic Boy. Note that the colt’s only on the board placements came at Parx. Draw your own conclusions. Pass.

Tip Sheet — He was a well-beaten sixth in the Holy Bull (G2) against this group and last seen finishing third in the same optional claiming event as Millionaire Runner. I think he’s best going one turn. Pass.

Tip Sheet — His only off the board placings came when he had trouble. He may not be in it to win it, but 10% or even 3% of the $1 million is nothing to sneeze at. Plus, he’s a Florida-bred. The late closer will be running at the end. Could shore up the exotics at a hefty price.  

Promises Fulfilled — He was the convincing winner of the Fountain of Youth (G2). He did so while setting a comfortable pace and earned a career-best speed figure. If he can get an uncontested lead again, this Shackleford colt could make it a Fountain of Youth-Florida Derby double.

Promises Fulfilled — He ran a huge 104 Brisnet Speed Rating in the Fountain of Youth, his first race off a layoff. He won’t get away with an easy lead here, and his pedigree says 1 1/8 miles is at the top of his distance range. He completed his last work, 5/8 in 1:02.08, doing it on a loose rein, picking it up slightly by the wire and galloping out nicely. Adding the disclaimer that I haven’t seen the colt, and video angles can be deceiving, the Dale Romans trainee didn’t look as muscular in his recent works. I’ll tag him as a regression candidate. Pass.

Storm Runner — He was seventh in the Fountain of Youth, beaten 16 lengths by winner Promises Fulfilled. He was green in the lane in the race prior as well, in which he beat Mississippi. He has put in some sharp works since then, but I do not see him doing much better than he did four weeks ago.

Storm Runner —  The other Romans runner. Big difference in his five-furlong :59.17 bullet breeze compared to his stablemate. He’s a big, powerful horse, looks and runs like his sire, Get Stormy, and the distance shouldn’t be an issue. Storm Runner has high knee action and was really into the bridle for his breeze. He lost all chance early in the Fountain of Youth. Note that Storm Runner held on to beat Mississippi in a previous attempt. Romans will give a leg up to Tyler Gaffalione, who couldn’t be riding any better. Live longshot.  

Catholic Boy — He was second as the heavy favorite in the Sam F. Davis (G3). He is a graded stakes winner on turf and dirt and has the opportunity to improve off that run at Tampa Bay Downs. Trainer Jonathan Thomas is switching to jockey Irad Ortiz Jr. Both trainer and jockey have been hot, hot, hot. His running style should keep him close to the pace without burning him out. He may not win, but he’s definitely an exotics play.

Catholic Boy — He was an easy winner of the 1 1/8-mile   Remsen Stakes last winter. In his first start of the year in the Sam Davis, the son of More Than Ready ran wide the entire way. He tried hard and challenged Flameaway in the stretch, but couldn’t get by. As Ashley noted, Catholic Boy should improve in his second start, and Thomas and Ortiz Jr. are hot. Win contender.

Hofburg — This is an interesting new shooter. He’s a half-brother to Emollient, a Grade 1 winner on the turf who could run all day long. He broke his maiden on the Fountain of Youth undercard, which was his second career start. I think he will appreciate the nine-furlong distance. Leave off your ticket at your own expense.

Hofburg — He won a slowly run 1 1/16-mile maiden contest from the No. 11 post at Gulfstream. He was seven wide on the first turn and four wide on the second. The Bill Mott trainee was green in the stretch and got his final quarter in 25.20 while holding off Just Whistle. Ashley noted that this Chestnut son of Tapit is a half-brother to Emollient, who is one of my favorite race mares. Mott conditioned Emollient and the dam, Soothing Touch. Distance isn’t an issue and the reported pre-race half mile breeze in :48.60is quick by Payson Park standards, but the late maturing youngster is jumping from kindergarten to high school. Exotics, maybe.

Audible — He pressively won the Holy Bull (G2), which was his graded stakes debut. Trainer Todd Pletcher skipped the Fountain of Youth (G2) with him but had the colt steadily working. Jockey John Velazquez hops back aboard after ceding the mountain to Javier Castellano in his last two starts. Look for him to be up on the pace. Definite win contender.

Audible — He ran a huge race in the Holy Bull, earning a 105 Brisnet speed figure in his first start of the year. He’s had 56 days to recover. His pedigree is miler-oriented, but Into Mischief has a couple of winners at nine furlongs, most notably, Santa Anita Derby winner Goldencents. I wasn’t impressed with Audible’s last two breezes. He was pushed to stay with his stablemates. Maybe he isn’t a morning person. Audible’s pedigree is distance-challenged, and he breaks from post No. 8, meaning he’ll be wide most, if not all, of the race. Exotics at best.

Mississippi — He scratched from the Holy Bull after drawing the outside post, 11. He then ran second to Storm Runner the next day in an optional claimer. Unfortunately, he did not draw much better here, getting the outside post once again. Two starts back, this colt ran a close second to Noble Indy, who went on to run third in the Risen Star (G2) and first in the Louisiana Derby (G2). Trainer Mark Casse adds blinkers and regular jockey Julien Leparoux stays aboard. He seems to have a case of seconditis but leaving him off your tickets probably is not wise.

Mississippi — He has a classy, but later maturing family. He’s still figuring things out. The bad thing is that he’ll be wide most of the way. The good thing is that he can settle off the pace and should handle the distance. Blinkers could sharpen the focus of this son of Pioneerof The Nile.   

Ashley

Laurie

#7 Hofburg (20-1)

#6 Catholic Boy (7-2)

#9 Mississippi (12-1)

#1 Strike Power (4-1)

#8 Audible (9-5)

#9 Mississippi (12-1)

#4 Promises Fulfilled (3-1)

#5 Storm Runner (20-1)