Head to Head: Dueling perspectives on 2024 Jim Dandy

Laurie

Ashley

1.  Sierra Leone (1-1)

Sierra Leone made his customary late run in the Belmont Stakes, circling seven wide and closing for third place. The bit change didn't help, as he bore in down the stretch, bumping with Antiquarian. The Chad Brown trainee earned a career-best 104 Brisnet Speed Rating. The lone closer in a speed-filled race can win this if Flavien Prat doesn't leave Sierra Leone with too much to do in the stretch. Contender.

Sierra Leone enters off an excellent effort in the Belmont. Despite stumbling at the start, bumping multiple rivals, and being carried wide in the stretch, the colt still finished third, beaten by just 1 1/2 lengths for it all. The only fault I can find with this colt is his tendency to lug in. Otherwise, he's as honest of a runner as anyone could hope to have, never finishing off the board. Flavien Prat has the return call from the Belmont. Contender.

2.  Seize the Grey (6-1)

Seize the Grey faded like a bad spray tan when he was pressured by Dornoch in the Belmont Stakes after recording a career-high 102-speed rating in the Preakness. He breezed once before the Belmont, six furlongs in 1:13, so his seventh-place finish could be excused. Since then, the Wayne Lukas trainee had three sharp solo works at Saratoga for the Jim Dandy. Seize the Grey has tactical speed as a presser but has been on the engine in his last two starts. Exotics.

Seize the Grey strung together two career-best performances in winning the Pat Day Mile (G2) on the Kentucky Derby undercard and then wiring the Preakness (G1) field two weeks later. Unfortunately, the colt's tank hit empty in the Belmont, where he finished 12 3/4 lengths behind winner Dornoch, who just flattered his own Belmont performance with a victory in last weekend's Haskell. Lukas likes to dance every dance on the card, but this is about the time of year where all but his hardiest runners begin to tire and lose a step or two. Jamie Torres retains the mount. Use underneath.

3.  Batten Down (5-1)

Batten Down is improving with each start, and his 1 3/4-length Ohio Derby (G3) victory was the best race of his career with a 100-speed rating. Tacitus's little brother had a pre-race breeze with Suburban (G2) runner-up Bendoog. The pretty gray colt tracked his mate before moving alongside around the turn. They moved as a team with little separation, and the riders did not ask either one. Oddly, Batten Down's time was recorded at 1:01.6 and Bendoog's at 1:02. Although Batten Down was the pacesetter in three of five starts, he settled off the pace in his third start and targeted the horses in front. He was green in the stretch while running between horses but only missed by a half-length. Sitting mid-pack or pressing the pace may be an option, but he's still learning. Exotics.

I really liked Batten Down in the Ohio Derby (G3), picking him on top at 8-1 morning-line odds. The long-winded colt lived up to my expectations with a 1 3/4-length win over Gould's Gold. I still like him here, but this is a much tougher field than he faced at Thistledown, and I have a hunch that the 1 1/4-mile Travers is the real goal. Batten Down also won't get the easy lead that he had in his last two races and will be facing other quality speed. If the Jim Dandy were also 1 1/4 miles, I'd be all in on this colt. But the shorter distance evens the playing field between him and the others. Junior Alvarado has the return call. Use underneath.

4.  Pony Express (20-1)

Pony Express is the least experienced in the Jim Dandy Stakes, with a trio of starts under his girth. The normally conservative trainer John Sadler ships this last-out maiden winner to face seasoned quality runners at a longer distance. Gun Runner's son is out of Quiet Temper, a winner of the 1 1/8-mile Fair Grounds Oaks (G2), so Pony Express should handle the distance. But this chestnut colt is waving three red flags: shipping, facing winners and adding distance. Additionally, he earned a career-high 105 speed rating in his last start. I predict a regression. Pass.

Pony Express comes in off a gate-to-wire win to break his maiden in his third career start. The upside is that his Equibase speed figures have improved with each start. But he was beaten by 34 1/4 lengths total in his first two starts. Joel Rosario will be up for the first time in place of regular rider Umberto Rispoli. Pass.

5.  Gould's Gold (15-1)

In his graded-stakes debut, Gould's Gold chased Batten Down around the Thistledown oval in the Ohio Derby and never got closer than 1 3/4 lengths. The Ken McPeek trainee has shown improvement in all three starts around two turns, and he's capable of pressing the pace or closing. Gould's Gold faces heavy hitters, but he's capable of a minor placing if someone stubs a hoof. Lower exotics long shot.

Gould's Gold finished off the board in his first two career starts. He finally got his picture taken in his third start, winning a six-furlong maiden event at Oaklawn by a head. Since then, he's finished third in the Bathhouse Row Stakes, second by a nose in the 1 1/16-mile Sir Barton Stakes, and second to Batten Down in the Ohio Derby. And although Brian Hernandez Jr. completed the Kentucky Oaks-Derby double with two of McPeek's charges, Gould's Gold is not at that same level. Pass.

6.  Fierceness (9-5)

Fierceness opted out of the Haskell and returns to where it all began. He wowed the crowd with an 11-length score in his debut. Since then, the Todd Pletcher trainee has developed a win-lose cycle. Fierceness will dazzle with another jaw-dropping performance if he stays true to form. Contender.

Fierceness was scratched from last weekend's Haskell Invitational in order to avoid stablemates Tuscan Sky and Mindframe. He enters off a disappointing 15th-place finish in the Kentucky Derby as the favorite. Fierceness displays a win-lose-win-lose pattern, putting him on the up side of the pendulum here. Fierceness prefers to be on the lead. I'm willing to throw out the Derby because of the utter chaos of running in a 20-horse field. John Velazquez has the return call. Contender.

Laurie

Ashley

6. Fierceness (9-5)

6. Fierceness (9-5)

1. Sierra Leone (1-1)

1. Sierra Leone (1-1)

2. Seize the Grey (6-1)

3. Batten Down (5-1)

3. Batten Down (5-1)

2. Seize the Grey (6-1)