Head to Head: Dornoch faces Sierra Leone in Blue Grass

Laurie

Ashlen

1. Top Conor, 15-1

Top Conor gained valuable experience in his debut at Gulfstream in February. He showed good speed from the rail post in a field of 11 to get position, then rated comfortably behind the pace. He was stuck in a traffic jam around the far turn, but once he saw daylight at the 1/8 pole, Top Conor breezed down the lane, passing tired horses to win by two lengths. It was a workmanlike effort, and the Chad Brown trainee finished a mile in 1:38.22 with a glacier 13.55-second final furlong, earning an 86 Brisnet Speed Rating. Twirling Candy’s son is out of the multiple stakes placed sprinter Divine Dawn by G1-winning miler Divine Park. Her full sister, Divine Miss Grey, is a G2-winning miler who placed up to 1 1/8 miles. Multiple-graded winning sprinter Noble Court is also part of the family. Top Conor may find 1 1/8 miles at the top of his distance range, as Race Lens shows Twirling Candy’s offspring have six wins from 68 starts at 1 1/8 miles and farther, and Top Conor’s immediate family are sprinter-milers. In his final four-furlong work at Payson Park in 49.80 seconds, the pretty gray colt started out solo then targeted an unrelated pair in front. Top Conor swung wide and passed without urging while the others were pushed. Top Conor has flashed talent, and it will be interesting to see if he’ll challenge Dornoch on the lead. Exotics.

Top Conor has just a single start in his young career. The Chad Brown trainee captured a one-mile maiden event at Gulfstream on Feb. 17. The colt pressed the pace before getting up near the sixteenth pole but ran greenly in the stretch, drifting in and out depending on which hand jockey Jose Ortiz had the crop in. He received just a 79 Equibase speed figure for the effort. That race produced just one next-out winner, though a handful did hit the board in their next race. In the last year, Brown has been at 15 percent, with a 62 percent in-the-money clip, with maiden winners making their second start in a graded-stakes race, according to Race Lens. Jose Ortiz retains the mount. I don’t see this colt winning, but he could get up for a minor award. Use underneath.

2. Be You, 8-1

Be You finally put it all together in his sixth start, beating maidens at Gulfstream by 2 1/2 lengths. The Todd Pletcher trainee was unfocused for a second in the stretch while bearing out but soon got back on track to mow down the leaders and clear by 2 1/2 lengths. Be You finished seven furlongs in 1:22.31 with an average 12.62 final furlong and earned a 94 speed rating, with a strong 101 late pace figure. He showed promise in his debut last year, finishing second to Just Steel by a nose at Saratoga. Curlin's son is a half to stakes-placed miler American West. Their dam, a grade 3 winning miler, is a half-sister to multiple Grade 1 winner and sire Constitution and to a Group 2 winning turf sprinter. Be You is bred to improve with maturity, and his two pre-race bullets put him on his toes. I can’t ignore the duo of Pletcher and Irad Ortiz Jr., but Be You must run a huge race to win. Exotics.

Trained by Todd Pletcher, Be You has made six starts and won only one of them, his most recent start. The colt is well-traveled, having debuted at Saratoga in the same race that produced Just Steel and Locked. He was then fourth in the Hopeful (G1) at Saratoga before shipping to California to run third behind the Bob Baffert duo of Muth and Wine Me Up in the American Pharoah (G1). He made his next start at Churchill, finishing fifth. His two most recent starts were at Gulfstream Park, a fifth and finally a victory last out. The colt’s best Equibase speed figure is the 99 he earned when losing by a nose to Just Steel in his debut, and he posted a career second-best figure of 94 last out. Irad Ortiz Jr., who has been aboard for four of the colt’s starts, including the last two, retains the mount. He does come off Lasix and will be stretching out from seven furlongs to nine. Pletcher is just 12 percent, 44 percent in the money, with sprint-to-route runners in the last year. I’m not looking for a win, but Be You is another who would not be a surprise if he nabs a minor award. Use underneath.

3. Seize the Grey, 20-1

Seize the Grey has finished out of the money twice in seven starts. After a noticeable improvement in his 3-year-old debut at Oaklawn, where he sat closer to the pace than usual and recorded a career-best 92 speed rating. The Wayne Lukas trainee took a shot in the Jeff Ruby Steaks (G3) over Turfway’s Tapeta. The pretty gray colt closed resolutely to finish third, missing second by a head and beating out the fourth-place finisher by a nose. Arrogate’s son is half to stakes-placed turf miler Shoppingforpharoah. Their dam, a stakes-placed daughter of Smart Strike, is half to Grade 1 winner Power Broker. The well-bred colt is one-paced and needs to be closer to the lead to have an impact. When I see his name, I’m reminded of the old Saturday Night Live Jeopardy skits with Darrell Hammond, the Sean Connery imitator, and read Seize the Gray in that voice. Worth a bet to seize a lower exotics placing.

Trained by D. Wayne Lukas, Seize the Grey has been off the board only twice in seven career starts, finishing eight in his debut and a close fourth in the Iroquois (G3). Seize the Grey’s only victories have been in his second start, a 6 1/2-furlong maiden event in the slop at Saratoga, and an optional claimer at Oaklawn. He enters the Blue Grass off a third-place finish, beaten by four lengths, in the Jeff Ruby Steaks (G3). That race, of course, was contested over Turfway Park’s Tapeta course, and the colt earned a career-best 93 Equibase speed figure. Normally, this would be an automatic toss for me. Still, the Turfway Park races have proven surprisingly productive in the last couple years, with Rich Strike winning the Kentucky Derby in his next start after finishing third in the Jeff Ruby Steaks in 2022 and Two Phil’s finishing second in the Kentucky Derby after winning the Jeff Ruby in his prior start. With that said, Lukas is just 4 percent, 37 percent in the money, in graded stakes over the last year. Nik Juarez has the return call. Pass.

4. Dornoch, 3-1

Since stretching to two turns, Dornoch is undefeated. The free-running pace setter tuned up with a 1 3/4-length victory in a weak edition of the Fountain of Youth (G2), finishing 1 1/16 miles in 1:43.64. None of his competitors hit the board in their next outing. Dornoch didn’t switch to his right lead until about a furlong from home and was all out to put away a stubborn Le Dom Bro by 1 3/4 lengths. The Danny Gargan trainee earned a 94 speed rating with a career-best 95 late-pace rating, and he should build on that in the Blue Grass. Further, he fired a pre-race four-furlong bullet in 47.25. Breezing with stakes winner Ringy Dingy, who was used as a rabbit, Dornoch started a couple of lengths behind, was scrubbed to catch up around the far turn, tapped slightly on the shoulder, and hand urged to pass the smaller filly. Ringy Dingy wasn’t asked until near the wire. Dornoch correctly switched leads soon after the 1/8 pole. Contender.

Dornoch enters off three straight victories, including the Remsen (G2), where he was headed by Sierra Leone but fought back to win by a nose, and most recently, the Fountain of Youth (G2), which he took gate-to-wire. Interestingly, Dornoch lost his debut to Seize the Grey and his second start to dual stakes-winner Noted in the $206,000 Sapling Stakes. It’s been nothing but up from there, however, with the colt’s Equibase speed figure progressing from 83 to 85 to two straight 99s and culminating with a field and career-best 102 in the Fountain of Youth. Regular rider Luis Saez retains the mount for trainer Danny Gargan. Contender.

5. Good Money, 20-1

Good Money fought bravely in the Tampa Bay Derby (G3) in his second start. The pacesetter set a slow early pace but was hounded the entire way. Despite this, the Chad Brown trainee couldn’t hold off the charges of Domestic Product, No More Time or Grand Mo the First. The top four hit the wire in a wild blanket finish. By 2018 Blue Grass hero Good Magic, Good Money hails from the same distaff line as Champions Arcangelo and Rags to Riches. But his second dam, Cascading, is the only stakes winner in the most recent two generations. Good Money had two sharp breezes at Payson Park, including a last-out four-furlong bullet in 48.2. Talented, but this is a huge step up. Pass.

Good Money was a debut winner for trainer Chad Brown at Tampa Bay Downs. That race has since produced one next-out winner and another who was third in their subsequent start. I pegged Good Money to fill out the superfecta in the Tampa Bay Derby (G3) in his last outing and fourth is exactly where he finished, beaten by just 3/4-length for it all. The colt did the early leg work but weakened late, though he tried valiantly to hang on. Good Money gets yet another jockey switch with Javier Castellano taking over from Irad Ortiz Jr., who sticks with Be You instead. Good Money will be asked to go an extra 1/16 mile and will have to contend with the likes of Dornoch on the front end. I liked this colt last time, but for the Blue Grass, I have to pass.

6. Just A Touch, 7-2

Just A Touch closed almost 10 wide in the Gotham (G3) over a sloppy track to grab second over a tired El Grande O. Previously, the Brad Cox trainee bested a nice herd of maidens at Fair Grounds in his debut, yielding a next-out winner and five who hit the board out of six returning runners. Just A Touch earned two 97 speed ratings and almost identical late-pace figures. Justify’s son is out of the Grade 3-winning miler Touching Beauty, a daughter of Tapit. Her full brother is Grade 2-placed at 1 1/16 miles, and Just a Touch’s second dam is a stakes-winning miler. Brad Cox gave Just a Touch two sharp five-furlong breezes at Keeneland, both in 59 and change. Let’s see if Just a Touch will improve over a fast track. Exotics.

Just a Touch debuted a winner for trainer Brad Cox in a six-furlong maiden event. He initially was sitting in second but quickly took over and was ridden out to a 4 1/2-length win in the mud. In his most recent start, he was second, beaten by two lengths, in the slop in the Gotham (G3). Winner Deterministic will line up in the Wood Memorial (G2) this weekend. Just a Touch earned a 100 Equibase speed figure in his debut, but that number dropped slightly to a 95 when stretching out two furlongs in the Gotham. He’ll be asked again to run longer, and this is a much tougher crowd than he faced in the Gotham (G3). The morning line odds of 7-2 seem a bit low to me, but his maiden race did produce a next-out winner, another eventual winner and four others who hit the board in their next race. Dornoch has successfully transferred his Aqueduct form to other tracks, so maybe Just a Touch can, too. Regular jockey Florent Geroux retains the mount. Use underneath.

7. Lat Long, 30-1

Lat Long finally got his picture taken in his fifth start after switching to a pace pressing-setting style. He returned to finish third in the Lecomte (G3) in an even effort. Liam’s Map’s son is the second foal out of the Street Cry mare Amen Sista. She’s a 3/4 sister to multiple graded winner, Southdale, plus the producer, Savvy Sassy, dam of graded stakes placed veteran Bourbon Bay. Another 3/4 sister, S S Pinaforte, bore multiple Grade 3 winner Plainsman and Oaklahoma Derby runner-up, Liam, who is by Liam’s Map. Liam’s Map has 6 winners from 64 starters at 1 1/8 miles and further. The Ken McPeek trainee’s speed ratings are consistently in the high 80s, and he reliably picks up a check in each outing. Worth an exotics long-shot look.

Lat Long has been a trifecta machine for trainer Kenny McPeek, though he did not find the winner’s circle until his fifth start. The colt was third behind eventual Remsen (G2) winner Dornoch in his second start and second to Track Phantom in his fourth start. He consistently posts Equibase speed figures in the mid-to-upper 80s. Julien Leparoux was aboard for Lat Long’s only victory, a race in which he had the lead by the second call for the first time in his career. I used him in my superfecta for the Lecomte (G3), and he ended up third, beaten by just 4 1/2lengths. Winner Track Phantom has since run second in the Risen Star (G2), beaten by Sierra Leone, and fourth in the Louisiana Derby (G2). Lecomte runner-up Nash has since been second in an optional claimer and dominantly won the Hot Springs Stakes at Oaklawn. Regular jockey Brian Hernandez,Jr. retains the mount for McPeek. Use underneath.

8. Epic Ride, 20-1

Epic Ride was the big horse at Turfway until someone bigger came along in the John Battaglia Memorial. Adam Beschizza kept Epic Ride under a tight hold in the early stages, and Epic Ride wasn’t happy, fighting, climbing and occasionally tossing his head. He finally settled down halfway down the backstretch. Epic Ride shortened stride a furlong from home, likely because of his earlier antics, and was nabbed by Encino a few strides from the wire. Blame’s son is the second foal out of a daughter of champion turf sire Gio Ponti. She’s half to a trip of stakes winners, Miss Dracarys and Up the Ante, turf milers, and the dirt sprinter Aristocratic. The extended family includes multiple G1 turf router Honey Ryder. Epic Ride has upright, choppy leg action and a strong turf pedigree. His half-sibling placed on dirt but hasn’t won in 15 tries. Pass.

Epic Ride has never been out of the exacta in four starts, but the caveat is that they all were over Turfway Park’s tapeta surface. He was second on debut before dominantly winning a six-furlong maiden event and the one-mile Leonatus Stakes. Last out, he was second by a length to Encino in the John Battaglia Memorial. His best career Equibase speed figure is the 100 he received when breaking his maiden, followed by the 98 he earned in the John Battaglia. According to Race Lens, trainer John Ennis is 0 percent with a 17 percent in-the-money rate in graded stakes in the last five years. Additionally, over that same time frame, he’s just 11 percent, with a 43 percent in-the-money clip, with runners switching from all-weather to dirt. Regular jockey Adam Beschizza retains the mount. Pass. 

9. Mugatu, 30-1

Mugatu is the Blue Grass Stakes “Why?” horse. One victory in 11 starts, can’t beat optional claimers, and only try on dirt resulted in a 10-length embarrassment. A son of G2-winning sprinter-miler Blofeld, Mugatu is out of a Union Rags mare. She’s a half to restricted winning turf miler Ex Pirate. Blofeld has two winners from 10 starters at 1 1/18 miles and further. Pass.

With 11 starts under his girth, Mugatu is one of the most experienced runner in the field. However, he has made only two starts on traditional dirt. The first was in his debut, a 5 1/2-furlong affair at Ellis Park in which he was sixth, beaten by 15 1/2 lengths. Trainer Jeff Engler also tried him on Gulfstream’s main track in a one-mile optional claimer, and Mugatu wound up fourth, beaten by 10 3/4 lengths. The colt has done most of his running on the lawn and Tapeta and eventually broke his maiden on Gulfstream’s Tapeta track in his fifth start. His biggest claim to fame, if you can call it that, was finishing fourth in the John Battaglia Memorial behind Encino and Epic Ride. Engler is 0 percent across the board in graded stakes over the last five years, according to Race Lens. Regular jockey Joe Talamo has the return call. Pass.

10. Sierra Leone, 2-1

Sierra Leone did an excellent job of shaking the dust off in his 3-year-old debut, closing to win the Risen Star by a half-length and traveling his final furlong in a decent 12.73 seconds. All his starts have been at 1 1/8 miles, and he fought the more experienced Dornoch to an epic nose loss in last year’s Remsen (G2). The Chad Brown trainee should build on his Risen Star 93 speed rating. Contender.

Trained by Chad Brown, Sierra Leone is a nose shy of being undefeated in three career starts. The colt was a debut winner back in November at Aqueduct and most recently ran down Track Phantom in the Risen Star (G2) to steal the victory by a half-length. Sandwiched between those two races was the Remsen (G2), in which Sierra Leone headed Dornoch in the stretch only to lose by a heartbreaking nose. He earned a career-best 99 Equibase speed figure in the Remsen and followed that with a 98 in the Risen Star; both races were contested in muddy conditions. Tyler Gaffalione, who was aboard in the Risen Star, has the return call. Contender.

11. Encino, 12-1

Encino showed adaptability in all three starts. He closed from far back in his debut to miss by a neck after a troubled trip, then stretched to two turns and won by a stubborn half-length despite wandering and losing focus. The Brad Cox trainee had a wide trip setting near the middle of the pack in the John Battaglia Memorial. Encino made a four-wide move around the turn and was still green, ducking in and losing momentum. Once Axel Concepcion sorted him out, Encino took aim on Epic Ride and passed him in the shadow of the wire. Encino is by Kentucky Derby hero Nyquist, who was the 2-year-old champ out of a half-sister to Street Sense, also a 2-year-old champ who won the Derby. Encino’s dam Glittering Jewel, by Preakness winner Bernardini, won at 1 3/8 miles on all-weather in England, placed at 1 1/4 miles on turf and multiple times over the Tampa dirt, so Encino should handle most surfaces. Encino’s speed ratings rose in each start, and although he’s jumping in class, distance and switching surfaces, this green but game competitor likes to win. Exotics.

Encino is a Turfway Park specialist. He lost his debut there by just a neck before winning two straight, including the John Battaglia. His speed figures have improved with each start, moving from an 81 to a 91 to a 100 in his last outing. Trainer Brad Cox is 20 percent with a 67 percent in-the-money rate, with runners switching from all-weather to dirt in the last year, according to Race Lens. Flavien Prat replaces regular jockey Axel Concepcion. Pass.