Head to Head: 2 takes on a competitive Stephen Foster

Laurie

Ashley

1. Pyrenees (12-1)

While Kingsbarns was busy fighting Harlocap, Pyrenees closed late to capture the Pimlico Special (G3) by 3/4 length. It was his fourth consecutive victory and the first graded. The well-bred Into Mischief 4-year-old is half to three black-type runners, including Grade 1 heroine Grace Adler, and his dam, graded winner Our Khrysty, is half to handicap veteran Bull’s Bay. The Cherie DeVaux trainee won two of three off-track starts, and his Brisnet Speed Ratings improved in his last four starts and recorded three triple-digit late pace figures. Live long shot.

Trained by Cherie DeVaux, Pyrenees enters on a four-race win streak, including a 3/4-length decision over Kingsbarns last out in the Pimlico Special (G3). His past performances are interesting. He went 4: 0-1-1 as a juvenile then broke his maiden in his fifth start off a year layoff. He’s been undefeated ever since. Pyrenees previously raced at Churchill Downs twice as a 2-year-old, finishing second in his second career start and 11th in his third career start. Back then, his speed figures were nothing to be excited about. But since he broke his maiden in December, his Equibase speed figures have improved with each start, culminating with a 103 in the 1 3/16-mile Pimlico Special. The colt has tactical speed. He typically closely presses the pace but can set the pace himself if necessary. Brian Hernandez Jr., who has been aboard for all the colt’s victories, retains the mount. Live long shot.

2. First Mission (6-5)

First Mission won the Stephen Foster prep, the Alysheba (G2), by a relaxed four lengths over a sloppy track. The Brad Cox trainee earned a career-best 106 Brisnet rating, a seven-point jump from the 99 earned from his five-length score in the Essex Handicap (G3). First Mission tuned up for the Stephen Foster with two sharp five-furlong breezes in 59 and 59.6 seconds. Contender.

Trained by Brad Cox, First Mission has rattled off two straight wins since finishing a disappointing ninth, beaten by 20 1/2 lengths, in the Pegasus World Cup Invitational (G1) to begin his 2024 season. That was the only time the 4-year-old has ever been out of the exacta. He just ran his two best career races in winning the Essex Handicap (G3) by five lengths and the Alysheba (G2) by four lengths. He earned a career and field-best 115 Equibase speed figure for both races. That makes me anticipate a bounce, but First Mission is 2: 1-1-0 under the twin spires. Florent Geroux, who was aboard the colt in his last two starts, retains the mount. Contender.

3. Happy American (30-1)

Happy American closed for third place in last year’s Stephen Foster when it was held at Ellis Park. The Neil Pessin trainee hasn’t seen the winner’s circle since January 2023, and although he’s been on the board in six of eight starts at Churchill, Happy American has an unhappy record at 1 1/8 miles, with one victory and a third in nine attempts. Pass.

Trained by Neil Pessin, Happy American hasn’t won a race since January 2023. He’s hit the board several times since then, but he couldn’t manage to win an optional claimer last out. Over the past five years, Pessin is 16 percent in graded stakes with a 42 percent in-the-money clip, according to Race Lens. The only thing Happy American really has going for him here is that he is 8: 3-0-3 at Churchill Downs. Corey Lanerie gets the leg up. Pass.

4. Disarm (6-1)

Off since a second-place finish to Arcangelo in last year’s Travers, Disarm returned this May against three overmatched rivals in an optional-claiming allowance, essentially a paid workout, starting off with a glacial 26.27 first quarter, then picking it up to get his second quarter in 24.48, and third in 23.49. The Steve Asmussen trainee recorded a trio of five-furlong works in the 59 to 1:00 range, so Disarm should be fit for the Stephen Foster. Exotics.

Trained by Steve Asmussen, Disarm took an optional claiming field gate-to-wire last month off a nine-month layoff. What’s particularly interesting about that race is that Disarm has never shown a propensity for setting the pace; he usually sits just off the pace from a few lengths back. The 88 Equibase speed figure he received certainly isn’t turning any heads, but there’s no denying that the colt is competitive in graded-stakes races, going 6: 1-2-1 in prior attempts. In the two races in which he did not land in the trifecta, he finished fourth, rounding out the superfecta. Asmussen is 19 percent with a 49 percent in-the-money rate with runners second off the layoff. Disarm is going to need to take a big step forward numbers-wise to win here, but I still expect a solid effort from him. Joel Rosario takes back over from the injured Keith Asmussen. Exotics.

5. Dreamlike (10-1)

The well-bred Dreamlike finally gets blinkers. He went very wide in most of his starts and wandered down the stretch like a loose shopping cart in a parking lot. The “other” Todd Pletcher trainee owns one win and six runner-up finishes, yet his speed ratings are consistently in the high 90s. Gun Runner’s son is out of an unraced full sister to 2014 champion 3-year-old filly Untapable and is a half-sister to Grade 1 turf router Paddy O’Prado. Another full sister bore multiple graded winner Red Route One and stakes-winning turf miler Red Run, both by Gun Runner, making them full brothers in blood to Dreamlike (by the same sire out of full sisters). Exotics.

Trained by Todd Pletcher, Dreamlike has only one victory in nine lifetime starts, but he’s hit the board in all two of his previous graded-stakes attempts, finishing third in the Wood Memorial (G2) and second in the Pennsylvania Derby (G1). This season he finished second by a neck in an allowance race to Cagliostro and third in the Blame (G3), beaten by three lengths with Cagliostro finishing ahead of him again. In the Blame, Dreamlike likely would have improved his position if he hadn’t swung so wide off the far turn. Pletcher puts the blinkers back on and is 23 percenet with a 55 percent in-the-money rate with that angle during the last year. Irad Ortiz Jr. retains the mount, making Dreamlike one to not underestimate. Exotics.

6. Classic Causeway (30-1)

Classic Causeway was a promising 2-year-old and competitive at 3 on dirt and turf. He went off form at the end of his 3-year-old season and hit the board only twice in the last two years. The Ken McPeek trainee was fourth last month against optional claimers, a field he would have demolished as a 3-year-old. The 5-year-old has earned $1.5 million in 22 starts. Perhaps Giant’s Causeway’s son would be better suited as a regional sire or at a new career. Thoroughbred makeover, anyone? Pass.

Trained by Kenny McPeek, Classic Causeway has only four wins in 22 lifetime starts. He managed a close second in his 2024 debut in the Temperence Hill Stakes but finished off the board in his other two starts this year. Julien Leparoux takes over from Brian Hernandez Jr. Pass.

7. Kingsbarns (6-1)

The talented Louisiana Derby (G2) hero’s only off-the-board finish was in the Kentucky Derby when he encountered trouble. More recently, Kingsbarns was second in the Pimlico Special (G3) to Pyrenees because he was fighting with the third-place horse. Kingsbarns owns speed ratings in the high 90s and earned triple-digit late-pace figures in his last two races. He has tactical speed, and if he doesn’t get caught up in a prolonged battle, this Pletcher trainee could earn a trophy. Contender.

Trained by Todd Pletcher, Kingsbarns has been out of the exacta only once in eight lifetime starts. His only off-the-board finish was when he placed 14th in last year’s Kentucky Derby (G1). So far this year, he’s 3: 2-1-0, missing by just 3/4-length to Pyrenees last out in the Pimlico Special (G3) after having had the lead in the stretch of that 1 3/16-mile affair. So he’ll get a slight cutback in distance here, which isn’t really necessary considering that the colt has two prior wins at 1 3/16 miles. Luis Saez retains the mount. Contender.

8. Steal Sunshine (20-1)

Steal Sunshine hit the board in one of three tries at 1 1/8 miles. But it wasn’t the distance that was the factor, it was the running style. Constitution’s son is out of an Unbridled’s Song mare so the distance should suit. He does best when kept closer to the pace, within three to four lengths of the lead. But for whatever reason, that hasn’t happened in three of his last four starts, and the Bobby Dibona trainee is left with too much to do. Still, Steal Sunshine is fairly reliable, finishing out of the superfecta once in his last 10 starts. Steal Sunshine’s speed ratings are in the 90s, and if Paco Lopez keeps Steal Sunshine closer to the pace, they could rain on somebody’s superfecta. Toss him in your lower exotics if playing multiple bets.

Trained by Bobby Dibona, Steal Sunshine is 22: 6-2-6 lifetime. The 5-year-old hasn’t hit the board in either previous start at Churchill Downs. All of Steal Sunshine’s victories have been at a mile or shorter, so he will not appreciate the 1 1/8-mile distance of this race. In fact, he’s 3: 0-1-0 at this distance. In the last five years, Dibona is 8 percent with a 50 percent in-the-money rate in graded stakes, with 11 of the 12 starts being by Steal Sunshine himself, according to Race Lens. Pace Lopez retains the mount. Pass.

9. Skippylongstocking (5-2)

Skippylongstocking seeks the hat trick after dominating the Challenger (G3) and Oaklawn Handicap (G2). He’s also taking his sixth stab at earning an elusive Grade 1 victory. The Saffie Joseph Jr. trainee managed third place in the Belmont Stakes and Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile but otherwise has been blanked. Joseph’s record shipping to Churchill is poor, but Skippylongstocking is doing well now. Contender.

Trained by Saffie Joseph Jr., Skippylongstocking brings a two-race win streak to the table after being pulled up and walked off in his 2024 bow in the Pegasus World Cup (G1). The 5-year-old was off the board in his only other start at Churchill Downs, but that was as a juvenile, and Skippylongstocking has since matured into a check-cashing machine. As for the distance, he’s 9: 4-1-1 and enters off a win at this distance in the Oaklawn Handicap (G2) in April. He earned a career-best 114 Equibase speed figure for that effort. Jose Ortiz, who was aboard in Hot Springs, has the return call. Contender.