Head to Head: Bob Lewis Stakes, Ky. Derby prep at Santa Anita

Laurie

Ashley

1. Madaket Road (5-2)

The first of the Bob Baffert trio, Madaket Road was ambitiously placed in the Bob Hope (G3) in his debut and wasn’t disgraced by his second-place finish. He benefited from a torrid early pace as the pacesetters fell apart but couldn’t keep pace with Bullard. Madaket Road broke a step slow in his second start facing maidens. He settled directly behind the pace, angled off the rail and held off the second-place finisher by a half-length. Madaket Road completed six furlongs in 1:09.97, with a 12.84-second final furlong, and earned a 94 Brisnet speed Rating. The pretty gray colt recorded three swift five-furlong breezes, including two in the 59 range. Quality Road’s son is out of Grade 2 winning sprinter Frolic’s Dream, and Madaket Road is half to multiple stakes-winning sprinter Bode’s Dream and Grade 3-placed runner Wyeth. Madaket Road can settle off the pace and if they go too fast early, he could surprise. Contender.

Trained by Bob Baffert, Madaket Road debuted in the Bob Hope (G3), finishing second, beaten by 4 3/4 lengths by Bullard, who finished third in the San Vicente (G3) in his next start. That field also included Grade 1-placed McKinzie Street. Madaket Road dropped into maiden company in his second start and got up to win by a half-length. Stablemate San Saba was a next-out winner. The Quality Road colt earned a 96 Equibase speed figure in the Bob Hope (G3) and a 94 in his second start. Frankie Dettori has the mount and will be Madaket Road’s third jockey in as many starts. Contender.

2. Citizen Bull (6-5)

Our 2-year-old champ has won three of four starts and owns two triple-digit Brisnet Speed Ratings. The only mar on his record was a distant third-place finish in the Del Mar Futurity (G1) after he had a wide trip behind a quick pace. A $675,000 Keeneland September yearling purchase, Into Mischief’s son is the third foal out of an unraced Distorted Humor mare who is a half-sister to 2017 Del Mar Debutante (G1) heroine Moonshine Memories. This is the distaff line of 1997 horse of the year and champion 2-year-old Favorite Trick and multiple Grade 1 winner Tiz the Law. Bob Baffert tuned Citizen Bull up with a quartet of stamina works, including a pre-race five-furlongs in 59 flat. He paired with last year’s San Vicente (G2) runner-up Pilot Commander. Traveling on the inside, Citizen Bull used his natural speed while being flanked by his mate. He urged through the stretch and received a tap on the shoulder while Pilot Commander was hand-ridden. Contender.

Also from the Bob Baffert barn, Champion Citizen Bull is making his first start since upsetting the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile at odds of 16-1. Citizen Bull also won the American Pharoah (G1) and finished third in the Del Mar Futurity (G1). This colt has two triple-digit speed figures, including the field high of 105 he earned in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. Regular rider Martin Garcia has the return call. Contender.

3. Rodriguez (7-5)

Rodriguez improved in his second start with an added two furlongs. He broke alertly from the rail and was lightly pressured through reasonable fractions of 22.91 and 46.33 seconds for the first and second quarters. He athletically cut the corner, opened up under a hand ride and was wrapped up in the final furlong. The Baffert trainee finished a mile in 1:35.91 with an easy 12.91-second final furlong. He got his three-quarter split in 12.73 seconds. Rodriguez earned an 87 speed rating. He returned to training with two sharp works, which were quicker than his pre-race ones. This is a good sign the race took nothing out of him and that he’ll progress in the R.B. Lewis. He teamed with multiple graded Getaway Car both times, and in their last breeze, Getaway Car was urged slightly. By no. 7 first-crop sire Authentic, Rodriguez is a three-quarter brother to 2017 Southwest Stakes (G3) hero One Liner and multiple stakes-winning sprinter Provocateur. The extended family includes 2008 Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile hero Albertus Maximus and Grade 1 winner and sire Daredevil. Rodriguez has natural speed, but how will he fare when facing Citizen Bull, who also wants the lead? Exotics.

Rounding out the Bob Baffert trio is Rodriguez, who just broke his maiden on Jan. 4 in his second trip to the starting gate. In his debut, he dueled stablemate and eventual San Vicente (G2) runner-up Romanesque and came out on the losing side, finishing 2 1/4 lengths behind that rival. That race produced only one other winner besides Rodriguez. As the heavy favorite, Rodriguez took his second race gate to wire, drawing off to win by seven lengths. His speed figure improved from an 87 to a 96. Because of the recency of the colt’s second race, none from that field have made subsequent starts. J J Hernandez has the return call. Contender.

4. Clock Tower (10-1)

Clock Tower returns to dirt after a trio of starts on the lawn, including a victory in the Cecil B. DeMille (G3). By Not This Time, Clock Tower is out of Grade 3 winner Hot Stones, a stakes winner from seven furlongs to 1 1/8 miles. Clock Tower has inbreeding to the superior mare Mariah’s Storm through her sons Giant’s Causeway, the sire of Not This Time, and his full brother Freud, Clock Tower’s second damsire. A confirmed pacesetter, Clock Tower doesn’t have the same late kick on dirt that he shows on the lawn and hasn’t flashed the same speed as the Baffert boys. Pass. 

Trained by Wesley Ward, Clock Tower began his career on dirt but has since switched to turf. He’s capable on both surfaces, but he appears to prefer turf. He’s 2: 0-1-1 on dirt and 3: 2-0-1 on turf, with a victory in the Cecil B. DeMille (G3) and a third in the Bourbon Stakes (G2). Ward had Clock Tower cross-entered in the Cecil B. DeMille and the Kentucky Jockey Club (G2) and ultimately opted to keep the gelding on the turf. Ward is 24% wins with a 55% in-the-money rate with turf-to-dirt runners. Kent Desormeaux will get the leg up, replacing originally named Gerardo Corrales. Pass.

5. Valentines Candy (30-1)

Valentines Candy is the “why?” horse in the R.B. Lewis and likely was entered for betting purposes. The career state-bred maiden finally earned a trip to the winner’s circle in his eighth start, a 6 1/2-furlong maiden claiming event at Los Alamitos. Dazing Candy’s son is out of the winning Harlan’s Holiday mare Ancient Holiday. His second dam is restricted-stakes placed and owns the only black type in three generations of this distaff line. Why are they running this poor gelding against a superior field and crushing him mentally? Nothing sweet about that. Pass.

Trained by Jesus Mendoza, Valentine’s Candy is the salty veteran of the group, with nine starts already under his girth. He has raced exclusively in California-bred company and didn’t break his maiden until his eighth start. He enters off an eighth-place finish in the King Glorious Stakes for Cal breds, ironically earning a career-high 77 Equibase speed figure. Mendoza is 0% across the board in all stakes races, as is jockey Welfin Orantes. I understand wanting to take a shot, but Valentines Candy is seriously outclassed. Pass.