Head to Head: Clashing viewpoints of 2024 Test Stakes

Ashley

Laurie

1.  Emery (5-2)

Trained by Brad Cox, Emery has only one loss from four career starts: a fourth-place finish in last year’s Frizette (G1), 5 1/4 lengths behind Just F Y I. She was given a six-month freshening and returned in April at Keeneland in an optional claimer. She easily dispatched that field, winning by 5 1/4 lengths, and followed up that performance with wins in the Leslie’s Lady Overnight Stakes and the Victory Ride (G3). She posted career-high 98 Equibase speed figures in her last two starts, and although she’s a one-run type, she has enough tactile speed to stay in touch with the leaders. Regular rider Tyler Gaffalione retains the mount. Contender.

Emery is pried for her Grade 1 debut after her 3/4-length victory in the Victory Ride (G3). Her dam is a multiple stakes-winning sprinter, and her second dam is an unraced half to multiple graded winning sprinter-miler Peeping Tom, so the class is there. There’s a lot to like about this Brad Cox trainee. She graduated at first asking over the Saratoga mud, is undefeated as a sprinter, and her speed ratings are on the improve, cumulating in a career-best 96 Brisnet rating. Contender.

2.  Denim and Pearls (7-2)

Also hailing from the Brad Cox barn, Denim and Pearls put in an uncharacteristically bad performance in the Eight Belles (G2) on the Kentucky Oaks undercard. She ran seventh, beaten by 10 1/4 lengths by My Mane Squeeze, after having never been out of the exacta in her previous five starts. In winning the Beaumont (G2) two starts back, Denim and Pearls posted a career and field-best 101 Equibase speed figure. Irad Ortiz Jr. takes over from Flavien Prat, who will be riding Ways and Means instead. After an almost three-month absence from the starting gate, I anticipate a much better race from this filly, and Cox is 19 percent with a 60 percent in-the-money clip with runners coming off a two- to six-month layoff. Contender.

In the Eight Belles (G2), Denim and Pearls was forced out of her customary pace pressing style when she was squeezed between rivals at the seven-sixteenths pole. She made a tepid wide move around the turn, but she just wasn’t into it and checked in seventh as the beaten favorite. Off since May, Denim and Pearls fired two pre-race, five-furlong bullets in 59 seconds and change. The Brad Cox trainee placed in the listed Martha Washington Stakes over a sloppy Oaklawn track earlier this year, so we know Into Mischief’s daughter can handle a sloppy track. Additionally, Denim and Pearls is Santa Anita Handicap (G1) winner Newgate’s little sister, so the class is there. Contender. 

3.  Belle’s Blue Bell (20-1)

Trained by Carlos David, Belle’s Blue Bell enters off a triumph in the Maryfield Stakes at Monmouth. Two starts back, she was sixth in the Miss Preakness (G3). She has raced several times in state-bred company at Gulfstream, where she did have success at the lower levels. David is 4 percent with a 17 percent in-the-money rate in graded stakes. Joe Bravo has the call. Pass.

Belle’s Blue Bell is the most experienced filly in the Test Stakes, with 10 starts under her girth. She’s hit the board in six of them, mainly optional-claiming contests. The David Carlos trainee had an excuse in the Miss Preakness. She broke from the far outside in a field of 12 and had a six- to seven-wide trip. To her credit, she improved from ninth to sixth place. There’s plenty of listed and regional class in Belle’s Blue Bell’s distaff line, but she looks up against it here. Pass.

4.  Ways and Means (7-5)

Trained by Chad Brown, Ways and Means is a solid runner but lacks a stakes win of any type. Last year she was second by a half-length to Brightwork in the Spinaway (G1) at Saratoga. This year she finished second by one length in the Gulfstream Park Oaks (G2) and fourth by 10 1/2 lengths in the Kentucky Oaks (G1) before thumping, in theory, her elders in an allowance race at Saratoga in June. I say “in theory” because only three of her rivals were older, all 4-year-olds, and they finished sixth through eighth, so clearly they weren’t the best older fillies around. In fact, that trio is a combined 35: 7-5-7 with no stakes appearances. All this makes for a questionable favorite. Flavien Prat retains the mount. Use underneath.

Ways and Means bookended sensational multi-length victories with her six-furlong debut and recent score in a 1-mile allowance. In between, she encountered trouble in the Spinaway (G1) and Gulfstream Park Oaks (G2), but still finished second. Toss this Chad Brown trainee’s Kentucky Oaks performance, as the distance was too far for her sprinter-miler’s pedigree. Ways and Means has a series of four-furlong solo moves over Saratoga’s dirt training track, including a second-to-last bullet 47.20, best of 58. Practical Joke’s daughter is all business in the morning, with her ears flat and ready to roll. Ways and Means earned a career-best 106 Brisnet rating in her last start, 8 points higher than her previous best. Although Ways and Means is a 3/4 sister to multiple graded winner Highly Motivated and a half to Grade 1-winning miler Surge Capacity, I’ve run out of ways to figure out why she’s the favorite off almost a three-month layoff. So you know what that means. Exotics.

5.  My Mane Squeeze (5-1)

Trained by Mike Maker, My Mane Squeeze enters off a fourth-place effort in the Acorn (G1). A mile is about as far as this filly wants. In races a mile or shorter, she’s 7: 5-2-0, but in races longer than a mile, she’s 2: 0-0-0. My Mane Squeeze won the Eight Belles (G2) with a career-high 100 Equibase speed figure on the Kentucky Oaks undercard before that fourth-place finish in the Acorn behind established route runners. I expect that the cutback in distance will move this filly back up. Maker is 11 percent with a 38 percent in-the-money rate with route-to-sprint runners. Luis Saez retains the mount. Contender.

Toss My Mane Squeeze’s efforts in the Acorn (G1) and Fantasy (G2), as this sprinter-miler was out of her element. She was impressive closing in the Eight Belles (G2) over a sloppy Churchill surface and galloped to the line under a hand ride, beating Impel by two lengths. The Mike Maker trainee received a career-best 98 Brisnet rating for her efforts. Audible’s daughter is a half-sister to two restricted black-type sprinters. My Mane Squeeze likes to settle two to three lengths off the pace, and she should be competitive here. Exotics.

6.  Brightwork (6-1)

Trained by John Ortiz, Brightwork will make her first start since finishing sixth in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies (G1). Like My Mane Squeeze, Brightwork is a confirmed sprinter. In races seven furlongs and shorter, she’s 4: 4-0-0, but in routes, she’s 2: 0-0-0. This race is obviously the perfect length for Brightwork, but the layoff is a concern. Ortiz is 11 percent with a 21 percent in-the-money clip with runners coming off a six-month-plus layoff. Brightwork does have a field and career-best (tie) 101 Equibase speed figure. She’s also 2-for-2 at Saratoga. If there’s no rust to shake off, Brightwork could be a winner at a nice price. John Velazquez has the mount for the first time. Contender.

Undefeated in her first four starts, including the Spinaway (G1), Brightwork disappointed around two turns in the  Alcibiades (G1) and Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies (G1). The John Ortiz trainee had an extended vacation and now surfaces in a Grade 1 against fillies with more recent conditioning. Brightwork recorded a trio of works at Saratoga, including a five-furlong gate work in 1:00 in a solo move, the second-best of 23 works. She broke well and held a steady rhythm throughout without needing encouragement. Outwork’s daughter tries an off track for the first time. The stallion has an average of 13 percent winners sprinting over the surface, and Race Lens shows that Brightwork’s half-sister placed three times on off-tracks. Brightwork has tactical speed and can set or press the pace. Exotics.