Head to Head: Clashing opinions on the 2024 Travers Stakes

Laurie

Ashley

1. Thorpedo Anna (3-1)

The queen of the filly division, Thorpedo Anna's only defeat was a troubled second place in the Golden Rod (G2) in her third start. Fast Anna, a son of Medaglia d'Oro out of 2-year-old champ Dreaming of Anna, won and placed as a sprinter. Race Lens shows that out of five racing crops, one of his progeny has raced beyond 1 1/8 miles and was unplaced. Six of his offspring have contested 1 1/8 miles, with Thorpedo Anna the only winner. Thorpedo Anna's damsire Uncle Mo lends stamina to her pedigree, and her second dam is a half-sister to Wood Memorial (G1) hero and sire Eskendereya. Ken McPeek isn't afraid to take on the colts; he conditioned Swiss Skydiver to a victory in the 2020 Preakness. Thorpedo Anna is a pacesetter-presser. She earned a career-best Brisnet Speed Rating in the Acorn (G1) two starts back, and her speed figures and final times are competitive with her Travers rivals. Thorpedo Anna must contend with four others with the same pacesetting-pressing style, but she has the advantage of the rail. She looked keyed up in her morning breezes, ears flat and tugging hard while the rider had a tight hold. But she was relaxed during solo gallops. Contender.

Trained by Kenny McPeek, Thorpedo Anna has been the darling of the 3-year-old filly division. She's gone undefeated this season and won her four races by a combined 18 3/4-lengths, with her smallest margin of victory a four-length decision in her 2024 bow in the Fantasy (G2). With no competition in her own division, McPeek has made the bold move to try her against the boys in a classic-distance contest. Thorpedo Anna ran a career-best 105 Equibase speed figure in winning the Coaching Club American Oaks (G1) last out, just five points shy of field-best Fierceness's 110 twice. This is a big test for the filly, but I trust in McPeek's judgment that she can handle this spot. Regular rider Brian Hernandez Jr. retains the mount. Contender.

2. Sierra Leone (7-2)

Sierra Leone consistently hits the board. He's been on the losing end of the photo twice, and the losing margins in his last three starts were less than two lengths. Will Take Charge was the last horse to place second in Jim Dandy (G2) and win the Travers (2013). The Chad Brown trainee and Dornoch are the only ones in the Travers with consecutive triple-digit speed figures, and this one-run closer anticipates a fast pace. If he can keep a straight path and not get into bumping matches with the competition, he could find himself in the winner's circle. Contender.

Trained by Chad Brown, Sierra Leone has not shied away from any competition this year. Unfortunately, he's proven to be his own worst enemy. Between his from-the-clouds running style and tendency to not maintain his lane, he has dropped the last three decisions while still finishing in the trifecta. He has never beaten Dornoch and lost to Fierceness last out in the Jim Dandy (G2). Flavien Prat continues to take the place of Tyler Gaffalione. Use underneath.

3. Unmatched Wisdom (8-1)

Unmatched Wisdom has been unmatched on the track. The late-maturing colt has won all three starts by a combined 13 lengths, including a one-length victory over Corporate Power in the listed Curlin Stakes after setting slow early fractions. Unmatched Wisdom was never seriously threatened and was just playing around, ears twitching, and plenty left in the tank. He completed 1 1/8 miles in a poky 1:50.70, with a crawling 13.27 final furlong. The Chad Brown trainee's speed ratings have gradually improved in each start, topping off at 99, and he has room for further improvement. But this pacesetter-presser's pedigree for handling 1 1/4 miles is concerning. On dirt, Cairo Prince's offspring are successful to 1 1/8 miles, although Race Lens shows he has eight starters, with four placing second or third at 1 1/4 miles. As a damsire, Pure Prize is represented by several turf routers at classic distances, but all the winners on dirt are sprinters to middle distances. The last winner of the Curlin Stakes to capture the Travers was V.E. Day (2014). Unmatched Wisdom has questions to answer. Will he fight? He's untested against seasoned battle-hardened foes. Can he settle behind the pace? He won't get things all his own way this time. Pass.

Also from the Chad Brown barn, Unmatched Wisdom in undefeated in three starts, including winning the restricted Curlin Stakes at Saratoga last out. He received a career-best 107 Equibase speed figure, which certainly fits with the top numbers in this field. In an interesting twist, Irad Ortiz Jr. will replace Flavien Prat, who rode the colt in his first two starts. This is a big class jump, but this one could certainly pull a surprise at good odds. Live long shot.

4. Corporate Power (15-1)

The McGaughey barn has been high on Corporate Power since he beat Batten Down by a neck in a maiden victory at Gulfstream Park. Skipping the rigors of the Triple Crown races, the later-maturing Corporate Power closed to capture the restricted Sir Baron Stakes by an exciting nose. Then in the Curlin Stakes, he had every chance to go by Unmatched Wisdom but backed away from that rival. By Curlin out of a Grade 2 winner, Corporate Power should enjoy the extra distance of the Travers. But he's in deep. Pass.

Trained by Shug McGaughey, Corporate Power lost the Curlin Stakes by a length to Unmatched Wisdom. Two starts back he won his stakes debut with a determined nose decision in the Sir Barton at Pimlico on the Preakness undercard. He did beat Batten Down in a maiden race at Gulfstream Park earlier this year and has shown improvement in his Equibase speed figures with each start. Regular rider Javier Castellano retains the mount. Pass.

5. Batten Down (20-1)

We discovered something about Batten Down in the Jim Dandy (G2). He's a need-the-lead type and was no match for the brilliance of Fierceness or the closing kick of Sierra Leone. This well-bred Bill Mott trainee hopes to follow in the hoofprints of his big brother Tacitus, who was second in the 2019 Jim Dandy and Travers. Batten Down likely will be part of the pace scenario, but if he settles in third or fourth place early, he's capable of maintaining position. He'll have to run the race of a lifetime, and his Brisnet late-pace figures are middling. Pass.

Trained by Bill Mott, it might be time to admit that Batten Down might be more like Tacitus than like Scylla. Tacitus was a solid racehorse, but he more often filled out second through fourth than actually won. Two starts back Batten Down won the Ohio Derby (G3) before finishing third last out in the Jim Dandy. Although his speed figures have improved with every start, he has so far maxed out at a 98 Equibase speed figure in the Jim Dandy (G2). He would need to take a significant step forward to beat this field, which encompasses more than just Fierceness and Sierra Leone, who he faced last month. Junior Alvarado continues to have the call. Long-shot play underneath.

6. Honor Marie (20-1)

Honor Marie was bumped hard and had the wind knocked out of him in the Kentucky Derby and Belmont Stakes. Despite this, he still passed other horses, gained position both times and earned a career-best 100 Brisnet rating in the Belmont. Trainer Whit Beckman adds blinkers to Honor Marie's arsenal to make the colt more responsive and able to sit closer to the pace. Honor Marie wore blinkers in his last two breezes, stayed close to his mates and handled the corners better than without blinkers. Honor Marie should relish the 1 1/4 miles. 2015 champion older horse Honor Code has two winners at the classic distance, including Jockey Club Gold Cup (G1) hero Max Player, who was third in the 2020 edition of the Travers. Honor Marie's damsire Smart Strike ensures stamina. Honor Marie has had a few months off, and if the blinkers do the job, he could surprise. Live long shot.

Trained by Whit Beckman, Honor Marie was last seen getting up for fourth in the Belmont (G1). This colt's last win came last year as a juvenile in the Kentucky Jockey Club (G2). His come from the clouds running style just isn't conducive to winning against quality speed that holds. Beckman is adding blinkers to Honor Marie and is 0 percent with first-time blinkers over the past year. He also has just an 8 percent win clip with blinkers on over that same period. Tyler Gaffalione gets the call. Pass.

7. Dornoch (5-2)

The free-running Dornoch seeks the designation of being the first Haskell-Travers winner since Point Given in 2001. There's a lot going for him. The Danny Gargan trainee has a high cruising speed and refuses to give up in a fight. He's also a winner at 1 1/4 miles over this track, which is a plus. Additionally, his trio of post-Haskell breeze times are slightly faster than the pre-race, and Dornoch was relaxed and under wraps all three times. Contender.

Trained by Danny Gargan, Dornoch enters off back-to-back grade one victories, winning both the Belmont and the Haskell (G1). He posted career-best speed figures of 106 and 107 respectively. He did run uncharacteristically poorly in the Blue Grass (G1) and Kentucky Derby (G1), failing to hit the board in either race. Since bouncing back, he has reverted to not failing to make the exacta. The Belmont was contested at the Travers distance at Saratoga, giving Dornoch a leg up on the competition. Regular rider Luis Saez will get the leg up. Contender.

8. Fierceness (3-1)

When he's good, Fierceness is very, very good, which is about half the time. Can he break the dreaded win-lose cycle over a track he likes? On the plus side, the Todd Pletcher trainee is outside speed, and John Velazquez can keep our prima donna free of the typical bumping and grinding that happens during a race. On the negative side, besides the dreaded cycle, he'll have Dornoch, Unmatched Wisdom, Thorpedo Anna and Batten Down to his inside, and Fierceness might have to use energy to get a good early position. Contender.

Trained by Todd Pletcher, Fierceness continued his win-every-other-race pattern when winning the Jim Dandy after bombing in the Kentucky Derby and dominating the Florida Derby (G1). That brings us back to the downside of his pattern, which means he has no shot here if you subscribe to that theory. He has the best Equibase speed figures in the field with a 110 in both the Breeders' Cup Juvenile and the Florida Derby and even earned a 108 last out. John Velazquez has the call. Beware the bounce. Use underneath.