Head to Head: Outlooks clash in the Woody Stephens

Laurie

Ashley

1. Big Truzz (10-1)

Big Truzz has a couple of things going for him. By Justify, he’s bred to handle classic distances, yet his dam, by Curlin, is half to the multiple graded-winning sprint warrior Salutos Amigos, so there’s class in this pedigree. Big Truzz has won at two tracks, including experience in the slop. In his last start, a 6 1/2-furlong optional claimer that included stakes runners, Big Truzz had a pace-pressing three-wide trip and gave the more experienced Patch Adams all he could handle in the stretch. Big Truzz weakened slightly late but finished 4 1/2 lengths in front of stakes-placed Multiverse. The Brian Lynch trainee earned a 100 Brisnet Speed Rating, and his 102 late-pace figure is second only to rival Patch Adams. Big Truzz has a series of sharp four- and five-furlong breezes at Churchill. The drawbacks are his inexperience and jump in class. Live long shot.

Trained by Brian Lynch, Big Truzz debuted April 12 at Keeneland. He stalked the early pace, took over,and pulled off to a four-length victory. Runner-up Fact was a next-out winner against his elders, third-place finisher Valiant Humor was second next out against his elders, and fourth-place finisher Zandvoort also was a next-out winner. Big Truzz then ran second to Patch Adams in the slop at Churchill Downs on the Kentucky Derby undercard. The son of Justify earned a 100 Brisnet Speed Rating for that effort. Lynch is 10% wins with a 50% in-the-money clip in graded stakes but winless with a 17% in-the-money rate in Grade 1 races over the last year. Joel Rosario takes over from regular rider Luis Saez, who will ride Patch Adams. Pass.

2.  Madaket Road (10-1)

After a hit and mostly miss experience on the Derby trail, Madaket Road shortened up for the Pat Day Mile (G2). He delivered the same good-but-not-good-enough performance as throughout his career, barely beating stablemate Gaming by a neck. The Bob Baffert trainee has a strong-weak race cycle, starting with a second-place finish in his debut. His speed ratings vary in the 80s and 90s, and his late-pace figures are solid 80s. He gets blinkers for this contest, but I predict the usual result. Exotics.

Trained by Bob Baffert, Madaket Road enters off a runner-up effort to Macho Music, whom he chased all the way around the oval, as the favorite in the Pat Day Mile (G2). An honest sort, Madaket Road has never been worse than fourth in his career. But he has only one win to his name. The colt has had five jockeys in six starts and gets his sixth jockey in John Velazquez, who takes over from Irad Ortiz Jr., who will be aboard Gunmetal. Baffert puts the blinkers back on Madaket Road after running him without them in the Pat Day Mile and has 38% wins with an 88% in-the-money rate with this angle over the past year. Baffert also has 13% wins with a 50% in-the-money rate with route to sprint runners. Exotics.

3. Macho Music (8-1)

Macho Music needs time to round into form. He won his third start off the layoff, an 11-length romp against statebred maidens in the Sophomore Stakes. Then he surprised everyone with a front-running score in the Pat Day Mile. How strong was the race? His final time of 2:35.65 was the second slowest of the day, and his final furlong was 13.38, comparable to a filly-and-mare optional-claiming event earlier on the card. On the plus side, the Rohan Crichton trainee has won at multiple tracks and on mud and his speed ratings are improving. Exotics.

Trained by Rohan Crichton, Macho Music enters off a decisive score in the Pat Day Mile, his graded debut. He’s had an interesting path to this spot that includes Florida-bred races and an attempt on the Kentucky Derby trail. He was second to Neoequos in his debut. He also ran second to Gate to Wire in the Swale Stakes while being four lengths clear of third-place finisher Gunmetal. The tables were turned when Gate to Wire ran fourth in the Pat Day Mile. The Pat Day Mile was Crichton’s first and only career graded-stakes victory. Javier Castellano sticks with the colt. Exotics.

4. Patch Adams (5-1)

After fading in a pair of Derby trail races at 1 1/16 miles, Patch Adams returned to seven furlongs and bested optional claimers on the Derby undercard, earning a career-best 104 Brisnet rating. Draw a line through the two-turn starts, and we have a sprinter with triple-digit speed ratings and late-pace figures. The Brad Cox trainee does his best work on the front end, and he’ll be tough in his second start off the layoff. Contender.

Trained by Brad Cox, Patch Adams returns to sprints after taking a stab at the Kentucky Derby trail. He finished fourth in the Southwest (G3) and the Tampa Bay Derby (G3) as the favorite. Cox sent the colt out for a confidence booster on the Kentucky Derby undercard, and Patch Adams returned with a 2 1/4-length score over Big Truzz in the slop. Seven furlongs seems to be exactly what this colt wants. He scampered off to a 10 1/2-length victory at the distance in his second career start and got the job done at 6 1/2 furlongs last out but was third going six furlongs in his debut. The question remains whether he can get the job done in graded company. Flavien Prat, who's riding Chancer McPatrick, and Florent Geroux have split riding duties in the past, but Luis Saez will get the leg up instead. Exotics.

5. Citizen Bull (5-1)

The once-hyped 2-year-old champ Citizen Bull showed shortcomings in the Santa Anita and Kentucky derbies. The California speedster is a need-the-lead type who likes to establish breathing room of a length or more and then play try and catch me. The Bob Baffert trainee might not get that setup against other sprinters, so we’ll see if he has the courage to fight back or if he’ll fold. His speed ratings are respectable in the 90s and 100s, so he should be included on your tickets. Exotics.

Also from the Bob Baffert barn, Champion Citizen Bull cuts back in distance after finishing fourth in the Santa Anita Derby (G1) and 15th in the Kentucky Derby (G1). I like this move, as I don’t think Citizen Bull wants anything past 1 1/16 miles. Baffert takes off the blinkers and has 35% wins with a 70% in-the-money rate with this angle. Mike Smith takes over from regular rider Martin Garcia. Contender.

6. T Kraft (30-1)

A local horse, T Kraft spent the winter beating up on rivals at Aqueduct. Unfortunately, he’s winless elsewhere, including the Spa. The Bill Mott trainee fired a bullet four furlongs in 48.45 seconds in company with the pricy, unraced and well-bred Domino Vitali. But the race video shows that T Kraft never headed his rival yet received the quicker time. The breeze wasn’t that impressive, and despite my Pavlovian instinct to include Mott horses when I see a bullet or second-to-last bullet, I must pass.

Trained by Bill Mott, T Kraft finally broke his maiden in his sixth attempt after facing the likes of Mentee, Colloquial, American Promise, Patch Adams and Guns Loaded in his first five starts. Once he got the monkey off his back, he continued to move forward, winning his next two starts, including the Jimmy Winkfield Stakes, to bring a three-race win streak to the table. The Jimmy Winkfield obviously featured lower-class runners, and the colt barely got the job done with a neck victory. T Kraft is 2: 0-1-0 at Saratoga. Jose Lezcano has the mount. Pass.

7. Colloquial (6-1)

Trainer scratch.

8. Gunmetal (8-1)

In his second start, Gunmetal was no match for Gate to Wire and Macho Music in the Swale Stakes. In his last start, he regrouped and opened up on a herd of optional claimers at Keeneland. The Brad Cox trainee has experience at three tracks, but his late-pace figures are low. Gun Runner is a superior mud sire, but Gunmetal returns after 61 days. Cox and Irad Ortiz Jr. must be respected, but Gunmetal’s class is questionable. Exotics.  

Also from the Brad Cox barn, Gunmetal is 3: 2-0-1 lifetime. His only loss came when he ran third behind Gate to Wire and Macho Music in the Swale. He did get locked up in a duel in the Swale, where he put up his second quarter-mile in 21.97 seconds. Macho Music was involved in that duel, also, so neither could hold off the late charge of Gate to Wire. He’s had a different jockey in each start, and that trend will continue here with Irad Ortiz Jr. taking the reins. If Ortiz can get the colt to conserve energy, he could be dangerous late. Exotics.

9. Neoequos (10-1)

Neoequos was competitive sprinting against statebreds and showed courage dueling with Madaket Road in the Florida Derby (G1). Neoequos edged clear of that rival but could not hold off Tappan Street and Sovereignty. After a misguided attempt in the Kentucky Derby, the Saffie Joseph Jr. trainee returns to what he does best. He showed courage and class when facing graded types going longer and owns a pair of breezes at Saratoga. He looked decent in a maintenance work on May 29, galloping out in front of his mate. Contender.

Trained by Saffie Joseph Jr., Neoequos was an unexpected force on the Kentucky Derby trail at Gulfstream Park. He ran third in both the Fountain of Youth (G2) and the Florida Derby (G1) to earn his spot in the Kentucky Derby gate, where he finished 13th. He dueled with Citizen Bull in the early stages, and both faded to finish in the second half of the field. I gained a ton of respect for the plucky son of Neolithic after the Fountain of Youth (G2), but I do think he will improve with the cutback in distance. Joseph has 21% wins with a 49% in-the-money clip with route to sprint runners. Jose Ortiz has the mount for the first time. Live long shot.

10. Chancer McPatrick (4-1)

Once upon a time, Chancer McPatrick was the best colt in the east. A winner of three straight, including the Grade 1 Hopeful and Champagne, he tasted defeat in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile at a short price. Winless around two turns, the Chad Brown trainee returns to the scene of his greatest triumphs and takes the blinkers off. The $500,000 question is how he’ll handle an off-track. Race Lens shows McKinzie’s offspring have a dismal 10% win rate on off-tracks, and Chancer McPatrick’s half-sibling was unplaced in their only try over the surface. Otherwise, Chancer McPatrick has tactical speed with Brisnet ratings in the 90’s. Exotics.

Trained by Chad Brown, Chancer McPatrick gets back to sprinting after three straight losing efforts at 1 1/16 miles or longer. The colt began his career 3-for-3, including two straight Grade 1 wins in the Hopeful and Champagne. He’s also 2-for-2 at Saratoga, making his return to New York all the more enticing. Brown takes the blinkers off and has 31% wins with a 63% in-the-money rate with that angle. He also has 20% wins with a 49% in-the-money clip with route to sprint runners. Regular rider Flavien Prat retains the mount. Contender.

11. Gate to Wire (12-1)

Gate to Wire’s most impressive performance was a five-length triumph in the Swale Stakes against Macho Music and Gunmetal. After a poor finish in the Fountain of Youth, the Todd Pletcher trainee surfaced three months later in the Pat Day Mile. He was ping-ponged between rivals coming out of the gate and was last in the early going. Gate to Wire made a late, grinding move to gain fourth place. Considering the trouble and it being his first start since March, Gate to Wire put forth a decent effort and can improve, but his speed ratings are going the wrong way. Pass.

Trained by Todd Pletcher, Gate to Wire began his career on turf. But after a poor showing in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint, Pletcher brought him back in 2025 as a dirt runner. He won the Swale Stakes at 14-1 after Macho Music, Gunmetal and Grayscale torched themselves with a three-way speed duel, leaving Gate to Wire to pick up the pieces. He’s since been fifth in the Fountain of Youth and fourth in the Pat Day Mile. Dylan Davis takes back over from Flavien Prat. Pass.