Head to Head: 2 takes on the Withers Stakes

Ashley

Laurie

1.  Global Steve (10-1)

Trained by Robert Reid Jr., Global Steve is undefeated in two starts. He won his debut by 6 1/2 lengths and subsequently won his second start, the Parx Future Stars Stakes, by 1 1/2 lengths. The colt's debut race produced two next-out winners, and the Parx Future Stars field included a stakes winner and a stakes-placed runner. Global Steve's highest speed figure is the 85 he received for his stakes win. Reid is 14% wins with a 49% in-the-money rate in stakes races over the past year, and regular jockey Mychel Sanchez is 19% wins with a 47% in the money clip in stakes races, according to Race Lens. Normally, I would pass on a runner from Parx, but this is a mediocre field, so why not? Exotics.

Global Steve steps up after outclassing sprinters at Parx twice by a combined eight lengths. Despite the eye-catching performances, Global Steve's final times were slow, and his fastest final furlong was 13:13. The Robert Reid Jr. trainee's Brisnet Speed Ratings are solid mid-80s, but his late pace figures are the lowest in the Wither's field. By no. 9 ranked speedy Third-Crop sire Bucchero, Global Steve is out of the Hard Spun mare A Rosefor Isabelle. His dam is half to the stakes-winning miler Water White, and Global Steve's second dam is half to Del Mar Derby (G2) hero Madeo. According to Race Lens, Bucchero has six winners from 82 starters at 1 1/16 miles and one finished third on turf at 1 1/8 miles. Global Steve's half-brother placed at 1 1/8 miles, and there's stamina on the distaff side. Reid surprised with last year's Withers victor, Uncle Heavy, who entered the race after a win in a stakes at Parx. Global Steve prepped with a second-to-last five-furlong bullet at Parx, and if Mychel Sanchez hustles Global Steve out of the gate, they can dictate the pace. Exotics.

2.  Surfside Moon (15-1)

Trained by James Lawrence II, Surfside Moon has one victory in five starts. His lone win came on the turf at Delaware Park in his third start. He then ran fifth in the off-the-turf Laurel Futurity and sixth in the Awad Stakes on the lawn. Lawrence II is 0% across the board in stakes races in the last year. Sahin Civaci has the call and will be Surfside Moon's sixth jockey in as many starts. Pass.

Surfside Moon hasn't decided who he wants to be when he grows up. I'm leaning toward a turf horse. His sole victory was at a mile on the lawn, and he previously placed on a muddy track, which suits some turf horses. Surfside Moon had a troubled trip in the Laurel Futurity. He steadied to almost last before the turn and was behind a wall of horses in the stretch. Once clear, he wasn't comfortable, running with his head up, climbing and changing lanes because of the crop. Malibu Moon's son is the first foal out of the winning turf miler, Crescent Lady. She is half to the multiple stakes-winning miler, Make Mischief. Crescent Lady's full sister bore stakes winner and 2023 Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies runner-up, Jody's Pride. The James Lawrence trainee's speed ratings are the lowest in the field, and Surfside Moon needs significant improvement to beat these. Pass.

3.  Corvus (12-1)

Trained by Jose Jimenez, Corvus is 6: 1-1-1 so far in his career. Four of his starts were in New York-bred races, including his sole win. Corvus's speed figures have improved with each start, but his best number is the 77 he received in his most recent two starts. Trainer Jose Jimenez is 0% wins with a 20% in-the-money rate in stakes races in the last year. Romero Ramsay Maragh gets the return call and will be the first jockey to pilot Corvus twice. Pass.

Corvus's best performances were against state-breds at Aqueduct. The one-run closer is typical of his sire's offspring; they are one-paced grinders. Covus's final time in his maiden victory was an uninspiring 1:38.28 with a 13.31 final furlong. Six of eight rivals returned, still searching for the winner's circle.Vino Rosso's son is the first foal out of the winning Scat Daddy mare, Dolores Westworld. Class skips to the third generation and includes Midway Road, who set a track record at Keeneland for 1 1/8 miles, and he was second in the 2023 Preakness. Corvus is bred to run all day. But that doesn't mean he's fast. Pass.

4.  Uncle Jim (3-1)

Trained by Brad Cox, Uncle Jim was a debut winner at Keeneland. He then ran third in an optional claimer at Aqueduct. Cyclone State, the winner of that race, won the Jerome Stakes next out. Only one rival from Uncle Jim's debut race eventually found the winner's circle. Jose Lezcano takes over from Florent Geroux. Contender.

Uncle Jim got an education in his debut. He was off a step slow, handled dirt in his face and pressure while between horses, was in tight on the rail, and finally dove through a hole and kept going. By the final furlong, his ears were twitching, meaning he was still mentally fresh. So the Brad Cox trainee had every right to regress in his first start when facing a couple of future stakes horses. Uncle Jim's Brisnet ratings fit with the field despite his low late-pace figures. City of Light's son is out of the Tiznow mare Now Now. Her half-brother Listen Here is a multiple-graded winning sprinter-miler. Now Now's half-sister bore Grade 1 winning turf mare La Coronel. Uncle Jim and Holy Bull (G3) entry Burnham Square share the same third dam, Margaret's Number. Uncle Jim should move forward off his last effort, and he has stamina-oriented breeding. Contender.

5.  Mo Quality (3-1)

Trained by Christopher Davis, Mo Quality enters off a runner-up effort in the Smarty Jones Stakes at Oaklawn Park. Third-place finisher Kale's Angel won the Renaissance Stakes in his next start, while last-place finisher Hot Gunner won an allowance race next out. Mo Quality has never finished outside the exacta in his three starts. His debut race produced one next-out winne, and the winner himself ran second in a stakes race next out. Nothing of note has come from Mo Quality's second race. Davis is 20% wins with a 40% in-the-money rate in stakes races ub the last year according to Race Lens. Kendrick Carmouche has the call. Exotics.

No one was going to catch Coal Battle in the Smarty Jones Stakes, but Mo Quality tried. He went five wide around the turn while Coal Battle got the jump on him. Mo Quality gave chase and switched leads a couple of times but closed for second place. The Chris Davis trainee's 77 Brisnet rating is low, but his 93 late-pace figure is the second-highest in the Withers field. Mo Town's son is out of the Quality Road mare, Revealing Quality. Mo Quality's second dam is a full sister to Grade 1 winning router Belle Gallantey, and his fifth dam, Meadow Star, was Champion 2-Year-Old Filly and the third dam of Arrogate. Mo Quality has tactical speed and can be placed anywhere. A bonus in a small field. Contender.

6.  Captain Cook (5-2)

Trained by Rick Dutrow, Captain Cook is a last-out maiden winner. In his unveiling, he finished sixth, beaten by just four lengths, then won at second asking after being transferred from Norm Casse's barn to Dutrow's. Aside from Captain Cook, his debut race produced one other winner. Only one rival from the colt's second race has made a subsequent start, and that one landed in the winner's circle. Captain Cook earned a 90 Equibase speed figure for his maiden-breaking victory. Manny Franco has the return call, and he and Dutrow are winning together at a 26% clip with a 70% in-the-money rate. Contender.

Captain Cook showed immediate improvement for Rick Dutrow in his first start for the barn. Captain Cook handled the sloppy Aqueduct track in his second start and sailed home 9 1/4 lengths in front under his own power. His final time for seven furlongs was a soggy 1:24.22 with a 13.48-second final furlong. No one completed a sub-13-second final furlong that day. The Dutrow trainee earned a 92 Brisnet rating. Practical Joke's son is out of Pow Wow Wow, a Grade 2-placed daughter of Indian Charlie. Captain Cook's third dam is Kentucky Oaks heroine Bird Town, and her half-brother is Belmont Stakes winner Birdstone. Captain Cook could handle 1 1/8 miles. Practical Joke has a winner and three runners up from seven starters at 1 1/8 miles, and there's stamina in Captain Cook's female family. Contender.

7.  Omaha Omaha (4-1)

Trained by Michael Gorham, Omaha Omaha enters off a runner-up effort in the Jerome Stakes to kick off the new year. He closed into a pedestrian pace to finish a clear second while never threatening the winner, Cyclone State. His speed figures have improved with each start, culminating with a field- and career-best 91 in the Jerome. Gorham is 0% wins with a 44% in-the-money rate in stakes races. Laurie and I both left this colt off our Jerome tickets, and I'm not eager to make the same mistake. Regular jockey Raul Mena has the return call. Contender.

After beating up on rivals at Mid-Atlantic states, Omaha Omaha proved he belonged with stakes horses with a runner-up finish in the Jerome Stakes. The Michael Gorham trainee bumped at the start of the Jerome, sending him behind the pack, at one point 10 1/2 lengths behind the free-running Cyclone State and looking hopelessly beaten. But Raul Mena never gave up and kept Omaha Omaha going while the colt wandered greenly through the stretch. He regained focus after passing the exhausted, battling third and fourth-place finishers, and his stride lengthened, ultimately winding up only 3 1/2 lengths behind Cyclone State. Omaha Omaha's speed ratings have progressed in each start, culminating in an 88 for the Jerome. He owns a 94 late pace figure, the highest in the Withers field. By no. 2-ranked second-crop sire Audible, Omaha Omaha is half to the Canadian multiple stakes placed Moon Strikes. Their dam's full brother, Big Blue Kitten, is a multiple Grade 1 turf router. The extended family includes 2-year-old champ Stevie Wonderboy and the multiple-graded-winning turf veteran Somelikeithotbrown.Omaha Omaha should appreciate the extra distance. Contender.