Head to Head: Clashing outlooks for Kentucky Derby prep

Laurie

Ashley

1. Built (7-2)

Built improved in his second start to tear down Render Judgment and nine other maidens by 1 1/2 lengths. Under the guidance of Corey Lanerie, Built took command at the 1/8 pole and held off the late charge of Render Judgment while under a hand ride. The Wayne Catalano trainee completed seven furlongs in 1:23.96 with a 13.10 final furlong, improving his Brisnet speed rating to 89.

Hard Spun's son is the first foal out of Curlin's daughter Sea Garden so Built is bred for distance. Sea Garden's half-brother Glenville Gardens is a Grade 2-winning turf sprinter in Canada. Built's third dam is Grade 1 winning sprinter Marley Vale, and the family includes Indian Vale, a multiple Grade 2 winner at 1 1/8 miles.

Built breezed twice at Fair Grounds, including a pre-race five-furlongs in 1:00.80. He should enjoy two turns, but there's always the possibility of regressing after the victory. Exotics.

Trained by Wayne Catalano, Built crossed the wire fourth in his debut but was bumped up to third after the disqualification of the runner-up to fifth. East Avenue, the winner of that six-furlong maiden event at Ellis Park, won the Breeders’ Futurity (G1) in his next start. One other entrant has become a winner since after dropping into maiden-claiming company.

Last out, Built held off Render Judgment by 1 1/2 lengths in a seven-furlong, high-level maiden race at Keeneland. Render Judgment did win next out, and the third-place finisher hit the board in his next two starts. In his debut, Built attempted to close from the back of the field, and although he moved up, he finished well behind the winner. Jockey Corey Lanerie took him to the front in his second race to press the pace, resulting in the colt’s first win. Lanerie will retain the mount. Catalano has 15% winners with a 40% in-the-money clip with sprint-to-route runners in the last year.

Over the last five years, Catalano has sent only 16 juveniles in 21 overall stakes starts, with 13 of those on dirt, per Race Lens. Catalano is 0% winners on dirt with a 31% in-the-money rate. The 88 Equibase speed figure Built received last out is on par with the other runners, and despite Catalano’s poor record with juveniles in stakes, Built is worth taking a look at. Exotics.

2. Render Judgment (4-1)

Render Judgment was green but game in his second start against a full field of maidens at Churchill and completed 1 1/16 miles in 1:44.83. He regressed in the Kentucky Jockey Club (G2), grinding his way to a fifth-place finish, 8 1/2 lengths behind First Resort. Typical of one-run closers, the Ken McPeek trainee's late-pace figures are in the high 90s, but his overall speed ratings are in the mid-80s.

Sired by Blame', Rener Judgment is the first foal out of Barbara Gordon, a daughter of Commissioner. His damsire was a multiple graded-winning router who placed in the 2014 Belmont Stakes. Class in Render Judgment's distaff line skips to the third generation, including Grade 1-winning turf miler Karelian and Queen's Plate hero Basquwin.

Render Judgment returns in 21 days and could improve now that he has the "maiden bounce" out of the way. Exotics.

Trained by Kenny McPeek, Render Judgment rallied from the back of the field to finish second to Built at Keeneland in October. The cleverly named colt bounced back to win at second asking in a high-level maiden event at Churchill Downs before finishing fifth in his graded debut in the Kentucky Jockey Club (G2).

Render Judgment’s second race has not produced any other winners, but a couple of runners hit the board in their next start. According to Race Lens, McPeek has 19% winners with a 48% in-the-money clip with juveniles in stakes races over the last five years.

Laurie and I both used this colt to fill out our superfecta in the Kentucky Jockey Club (G2), and he just missed the top four by 1/2 length. I’m going to double down on the drop in class with Brian Hernandez Jr. retaining the mount. Exotics.

3. Magnitude (2-1)

Magnitude does his best work on the lead or pressing the pace. He was a speed-fade casualty in the Iroquois (G3) and faded like a bad spray tan to seventh place. In his latest start, Magnitude was rank when Erik Asmussen asked him to settle, but Magnitude eventually relaxed while breathing down the neck of the pacesetter. The Steve Asmussen trainee was chased down the lane but turned away his rival and prevailed by a length. Magnitude completed 1 1/16 miles in 1:44.24, earning an 86 Brisnet rating.  

A $450,000 Keeneland September yearling, Not This Time's son is the first winner in his immediate family. Magnitude's second dam, Octave, captured the Mother Goose and CCA Oaks, both Grade 1's, and among Octave's many accomplishments, she was second in the 2006 Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies and Kentucky Oaks.

With four starts under his girth, Magnitude is the most experienced colt in the field and gets a jock switch to Jose Ortiz. Contender.

Trained by Steve Asmussen, Magnitude was caught wide at Churchill Downs in his debut and outkicked for anything better than fourth. The colt made his second start at Ellis Park and shook things up by going to the lead rather than pressing the pace. He came away with a dazzling 5 3/4-length victory in that seven-furlong event. Magnitude made his third start in the Iroquois (G3), where he once again took up the running, pressing the pace only to weaken to seventh, beaten by 12 lengths.

His fourth start saw him once again set the pace en route to a victory, this time in a high-level, 1 1/16 mile optional claimer. The key difference aside from running style in Magnitude’s four races is that Tyler Gaffalione was aboard for both losses and Erik Asmussen piloted the colt to both wins. Neither will have the mount on Saturday, however, as Jose Ortiz will be up for the first time. Despite his ups and downs, I like this colt and trust Ortiz to give him the trip he needs. Contender.

4. Chris's Revenge (6-1)

After conquering $50,000 optional claimers in his second start by 1 3/4 lengths at Belmont At The Big A, Chris's Revenge shipped to Churchill, stretched to a mile and faced winners in an allowance race. He broke outward, losing lengths, and then made a sustained drive while wide the entire way. It was a decent effort for the Brittany Russell trainee, who was tired but managed to finish fourth, bested 2 1/4 lengths.

By no. 10 First-Crop sire Instagrand, Chris's Revenge is the first foal out of the Broken Vow mare Summer Squeeze. Her half-sister Summersault is a Grade 3-winning turf router.

Race Lens shows Instagrand has two winners from four starters at 1 1/16 miles on dirt. Chris's Revenge has the build of a sprinter-miler, although he may handle two turns in the right company. Pass.

Trained by Brittany Russell, Chris’s Revenge is 3: 1-0-0. He debuted in a six-furlong maiden optional claimer at the Belmont at Aqueduct meet, finishing fifth by 8 1/2 lengths. Russell sent him out in another maiden optional claimer for his second start, resulting in a win. Chris’s Revenge then was fourth in a starter race at Churchill Downs.

Russell is based in the mid-Atlantic region and generally does not venture far from home. She has sent only 18 runners in 30 starts in Louisiana in the last five years for a 13% win rate and a 43% in-the-money clip, according to Race Lens. Those are good numbers, but her colt is outclassed here. Jaime Torres has the call. Pass.

5. Admiral Dennis (9-5)

After placing a troubled third in his debut, Admiral Dennis returned to conquer maidens by three lengths at Churchill. Luis Saez kept the Brad Cox trainee three wide while tracking the pace then took over with authority, and the strapping Chestnut sailed home under a hand ride. Admiral Dennis completed a mile in 1:35.87 with a sharp 12:37-secodn final furlong. He earned a 91 Brisnet speed rating and 97 late pace figure.

A $425,000 Keeneland September yearling by Constitution, Admiral Dennis is out of Gulf Cost, a stakes-winning miler daughter of Union Rags. Admiral Dennis's second and third dams are stakes placed milers and his fourth dam is the superior mare, Weekend Surprise, dam of A.P. Indy, Summer Squall, and her descendants have shaped racing.

Admiral Dennis fired a second-to-last five-furlong bullet in 1:00.60, and all systems are a go for this contender.

Trained by Brad Cox, Admiral Dennis found all kinds of trouble in his debut, breaking inward, getting checked and then running into traffic in the stretch. Despite all that, he finished a gallant third, beaten by only two lengths.

Along with Admiral Dennis, two other runners from that field were next-out winners. The son of Constitution stretched out to a mile for his second start and drove clear to win by 3 1/2 lengths with a field-best 97 Equibase speed figure. Luis Saez was aboard for the race and has the return call here. Admiral Dennis could wish his rivals fair winds as he looks to make it two in a row. Contender.