Blue Grass Head to Head: Differing on big Ky. Derby prep

Laurie

Ashley

1. River Thames (5-2)

River Thames looked like the Fountain of Youth winner until Sovereignty nailed him on the wire. River Thames had put an ear up searching for the horse to his inside but was surprised by Sovereignty. He was flattered when that one finished second in the Florida Derby (G1). The Todd Pletcher trainee earned a 99 Brisnet rating, and his late pace figures are in the low to mid 90s. River Thames fired a second-to-last bullet four furlongs in 1:00.51 at Palm Beach Downs in company with listed winner Noted. The pair was evenly matched until several strides from the wire where River Thames pulled ahead under his own power with the rider sitting chilly. River Thames may find 1 1/8 miles at the top of his distance range. Race Lens shows Maclean’s Music has eight winners from 44 starters at 1 1/8 miles and none farther. River Thames’s dam Proportionality (Discreet Cat) was a sprinter. The extended family includes two-time Carter (G1) hero Dads Caps and multiple Grade 1 winning heroine Paulassilverlining. River Thames will be part of the speed contingent taking the short way around. Exotics.

Trained by Todd Pletcher, River Thames enters off a very gallant effort in the Fountain of Youth (G2). He raced on the pace and had the lead before being nailed by Sovereignty at the wire. He lost by just a neck. Before that River Thames dominated in his debut and his second start, winning them by a combined 11 1/4 lengths. He earned a joint field-best 98 Equibase Speed Figure and a 99 Brisnet Speed Rating for the effort. Jockey Irad Ortiz Jr. takes over from John Velazquez. Contender.

2. Render Judgment (20-1)

Render Judgment has two starts at 1 1/8 miles under his girth. He showed notable improvement, finishing second in the Virginia Derby, his second start off the layoff, and earned a career-high 96 Brisnet Speed Rating. Blame’s son is the first foal out of a daughter of Commissioner. His damsire was a multiple graded winning router who placed in the 2014 Belmont Stakes. Class in his distaff line skips to the third generation, including Grade 1 winning turf miler Karelian and Queen’s Plate hero Basquwin. In the Virginia Derby, Render Judgment had trouble disengaging from the horse on his inside. He didn’t want to pass but did so because his rival was tiring. This one-paced grinder will need considerable improvement to be a threat. Pass.

Trained by Kenny McPeek, Render Judgment was last seen finishing second in the Virginia Derby. He also had a third in the Gun Runner and an eighth in the Risen Star (G2). Virginia Derby winner American Promise also finished ahead of Render Judgment at Fair Grounds. Aside from Chunk of Gold, who finished second in the Risen Star and the Louisiana Derby (G2), the Risen Star form didn’t carry over to the Louisiana Derby. The Virginia Derby field wasn’t particularly strong, and Render Judgment will face tougher foes here. Sheldon Russell, who rode the colt at Colonial Downs, retains the mount. Render Judgment is the only horse Russell has ridden for McPeek in the last year, per Race Lens. I don’t think we’ll see a win, but Render Judgment could certainly grab a piece of the pie at a price. Exotics.

3. Burnham Square (9-2)

Burnham Square was the hype horse after his surprise victory in the Holy Bull (G3), where he bested Tappan Street by 1 3/4 lengths. The Ian Wilkes trainee earned a career-best 101 Brisnet rating. Burnham Square regressed off the effort, checking in fourth and earning a 96 rating in the Fountain of Youth, although he had a wide trip. Ian Wilkes gave the colt a pair of recent five-furlong works, including a pre-race move at Churchill in 59.6 seconds. Burnham Square may find 1 1/8 miles at the top of his distance limit. Liam’s Map has eight winners from 77 starters at 1 1/8 miles and farther, but they are 0-for-22 in graded stakes. Burnham Square is out of Grade 2-winning turf miler Linda, who is by Scat Daddy. His second dam is Grade 2-winning turf router Beautiful Noise, and 1983 Kentucky Derby hero Sunny’s Halo makes a rare appearance as Burnham Square’s second damsire. Burnham Square has tactical speed and could rebound off his last effort. Exotics.

Trained by Ian Wilkes, Burnham Square won the Holy Bull (G3) but could manage only fourth in the Fountain of Youth (G2). Sovereignty, the winner, and Neoequos, the third-place finisher, both ran back in the Florida Derby (G1) and finished second and third, respectively. The gelding gets a jockey switch from Edgard Zayas to Brian Hernandez Jr., who was Render Judgment’s regular rider. Burnham Square’s best Equibase Speed Figure is the 94 he earned when breaking his maiden, but he received a 101 Brisnet Speed Rating for the Holy Bull (G3). Exotics.

4. Owen Almighty (3-1)

After a tenacious loss by a half-length in the Sam F. Davis, Owen Almighty ruled the Tampa Derby (G3) by a powerful 3 1/2 lengths over Blue Grass rival Chancer McPatrick and Hill Road, who was scratched from the Wood Memorial (G2). The Brian Lynch trainee’s Brisnet speed ratings are in the high 90s, and his 108 late-pace figure is the highest in the Blue Grass. Owen Almighty had a pre-race bullet five furlongs in a solo work in 1:00.75 at Palm Meadows. He was relaxed through a routine maintenance move, identical to his pre-race breeze for the Tampa Derby. Owen Almighty should handle 1 1/8 miles. Speightstown is the sire of 14 stakes winners at 1 1/8 miles and farther. Owen Almighty is the first foal out of Bayern-sired Grade 2 winner Tempers Rising. She is half to a stakes-winning sprinter, and there is little black type in the third generation of the distaff line. Owen Almighty will have company on the front end, yet he proved that he won’t back down in a fight. Contender.

Trained by Brian Lynch, Owen Almighty comes off a victory in the Tampa Bay Derby (G3). He also was second in the Sam F. Davis and crossed the wire first in the Pasco but was disqualified to fifth for interference. He shared a field-best 98 Equibase figure and a 95 Brisnet rating for the Tampa Bay Derby. Owen Almighty always shows up and runs his race, and the Pasco was the only time he ever was officially outside the exacta. Jose Ortiz takes over from his brother, who will be on River Thames instead. Lynch is 11% wins with a 44% in-the-money rate in graded stakes over the past year, per Race Lens. Exotics.

5. East Avenue (3-1)

East Avenue was given a tough assignment in the Risen Star (G2), his first start of the season. He showed brief speed before folding like a cheap lawn chair, checking in 22 lengths behind Magnitude. Since, the Brendan Walsh trainee has logged six works, including a trio of five-furlong moves in the 59.0-1:00.0 range. East Avenue is bred for classic distances. Medaglia d’Oro’s son is out of unraced Ghostzapper mare Dance Music, who is a half-sister to 2023 champion older dirt male and horse of the year Cody’s Wish. Dance Music’s full brother Endorsed is a multiple graded-winning miler who placed twice at 1 1/8 miles. Another full brother Bocephus is a stakes-winning miler and a stakes-placed sprinter. East Avenue’s second dam Dance Card won the 1 1/8 mile Gazelle (G1) and was third behind Groupie Doll and Judy the Beauty in the 2013 Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Sprint. East Avenue is well-bred and returns to the scene of his best performance. However, questions remain. He beat a nothing field in the Breeders’ Futurity (G1) and had excuses in two subsequent starts. Will the real East Avenue pave the way to success, or will he hit a pothole? I love breeding, and this is East Avenue’s make or break race. Exotics.

Trained by Brendan Walsh, East Avenue failed abysmally as the odds-on favorite in the Risen Star (G2). The Breeders’ Futurity (G1) winner also was ninth in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. In that race he stumbled badly at the start and lost all chance since he didn’t make the lead. In the Risen Star he again didn’t make the lead but did stalk in second. When it was time for the real running, however, his bid collapsed like a Jenga tower constructed at a kegger. In fairness, it was his first start off a 3 1/2-month layoff. Walsh is a 14% winner with a 41% in-the-money clip with runners second off the layoff. He’s also sending East Avenue out with a new set of blinkers and is 17% in wins with a 39% in-the-money rate with first time blinkers. Luan Machado, who rode the colt in his debut, takes back over from the injured Tyler Gaffalione. Exotics.    

6. Chancer McPatrick (7-2)

Chancer McPatrick wasn’t going to catch Owen Almighty in the Tampa Bay Derby (G3). Still, he lived up to the class he flashed as a multiple Grade 1-winning juvenile when he athletically cut the corner and turned back a challenge by Hill Road, opening up 2 3/4 lengths on that one. It was a good first-off-the-layoff effort, and the Chad Brown trainee recorded his third triple-digit late-pace figure. Chancer McPatrick has a borderline pedigree for 1 1/8 miles and farther. The second-leading second-crop sire McKinzie won 2 of 4 starts at 1 1/8 miles and was second twice at 1 1/4 miles. Chancer McPatrick is out of the winning Bernardini mare Bernadreamy, who won once at 1 1/8 miles on the lawn. His second dam is Alcibiades (G1) heroine and Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies runner-up Dream Empress. In the Tampa Bay Derby, Chancer McPatrick settled closer to the pace than previously. While there’s a possibility Chancer McPatrick will regress, he’s shown a strong late closing kick in each race and must be considered a contender.

Trained by Chad Brown, Chancer McPatrick was second to Owen Almighty in his 2025 debut in the Tampa Bay Derby. It was his first start since finishing sixth in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. He ran a solid race, but Owen Almighty was just the better horse that day. Brown is 21% in wins with a 60% in-the-money rate, with runners second off a layoff. The colt’s best Equibase Speed Figure is the 95 he received for the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. Regular rider Flavien Prat retains the mount. Contender.

7. Admiral Dennis (20-1)

Admiral Dennis is a steady, one-paced type with a predictable good-bad form and inconsistent speed ratings. The Brad Cox trainee walked out of the Rebel (G2) gate while the rest of the field sailed off without him. Admiral Dennis eventually made up 17 lengths, passing tired horses to place sixth. It was a steady effort, and he earned a 96 late-pace figure. Admiral Dennis has a pair of recent five-furlong breezes at Churchill. He paired with the maiden Zardun in their second-to-last work, a bullet in 1:00.8. Little separated the pair, although Admiral Dennis pulled slightly ahead in the gallop out. Admiral Dennis has the pedigree to handle classic distances. Constitution’s son is out of Gulf Coast, a stakes-winning miler daughter of Union Rags. Admiral Dennis’s second and third dams are stakes placed milers, and his fourth dam is the Reine, Weekend Surprise, dam of A.P. Indy, Summer Squall, and her descendants have shaped racing. Admiral Dennis doesn’t have gears, but he has a decent closing kick. If his past form holds true, he’ll try to leave the rest in his wake. Live long shot.

Trained by Brad Cox, Admiral Dennis has been an also-ran in both prior Kentucky Derby preps. He finished in a different ZIP code in the Gun Runner, finishing fourth but beaten by 16 1/2 lengths. Most recently, he was sixth in the Rebel (G2). Rebel winner Coal Battle then ran third in the Arkansas Derby (G1). Runner-up Madaket Road was fourth in the Florida Derby (G1). Third-place finisher Sandman came back to win the Arkansas Derby, fourth-place finisher Publisher was second in the Arkansas Derby and fifth-place finisher Tiztastic won the Louisiana Derby (G2). The Rebel form obviously has held, but I don’t think that is going to help Admiral Dennis. Luis Saez takes over from Florent Geroux. Pass.