Head to Head: Making cases for Ky. Derby prep in Louisiana

Laurie

Ashley

1. John Hancock (7-2)

John Hancock scratched from last week's Virginia Derby. The undefeated by lightly raced Sam Davis winner will try to become the second horse in 20 years to capture the Louisiana Derby in his third start. Kingsbarns in 2023 and High Limit in 2006in were the last to complete this feat. The Brad Cox trainee has speed on the rail and showed courage in winning the Sam Davis while dueling every step of the way with Owen Almighty and getting the better of that one by a half-length. Owen Almighty returned to capture the Tampa Bay Derby (G3) by 3 1/2 lengths. John Hancock's Brisnet Speed Rating jumped 9 points in the Sam Davis, and his late-pace figures are competitive with the field.

Race Lens shows Constitution's offspring love distance, as 18% have won from 1 1/8 to 1 1/2 miles and 50% have finished in the top three. John Hancock has a classy family. His half-sister Speech set set a track record in the 2020 Ashland (G1) of 1:41.26 for 1 1 1/6 miles. She was also second in the Santa Anita Oaks (G2) and third in the Kentucky Oaks (G1). She later finished second to Donna Veloce in the Santa Ysabel (G3). Brad Cox gave John Hancock a pair of recent five-furlong breezes in the 1:02 range at Payson Park, and the colt should be ready to roll. Contender.

Trained by Brad Cox, John Hancock is undefeated in two career starts. The colt stretched out from his six-furlong debut to win the Sam F. Davis by a half-length in his second start. Sam F. Davis runner-up Owen Almighty returned to reign supreme in the Tampa Bay Derby, kicking away to a 3 1/2-length win. The confirmed front runner's Equibase speed figure improved from a 96 to a 97. He also earned a 97 Brisnet Speed Rating. Cox's stats go without reiterating. Flavien Prat has the return call. Contender.

2. Chunk of Gold (8-1)

Chunk of Gold closed from mid-pack in his last two starts to gain second place behind runaway winners. But his first performance over dirt in the Risen Star (G2) was workmanlike, grinding past tired horses, including a tired Built, to win the photo over that one by a head. Chunk of Gold's speed rating jumped 11 points to a career-high 94, but his late-pace figure in the Risen Star was a mediocre 81.

By Grade 1 winning router Preservationist, Chunk of Gold is a full brother to last year's Martha Washington Stakes heroine Band of Gold. Their dam is a half to multiple Grade 3 winner My Boy Jack, who was third in two starts beyond 1 1/16 miles. Ethan West gave his charge a recent pair of five-furlong works, including a bullet 59.60 at Turfway. Chunk of Gold's action over Tapeta is better than on dirt, but he could pass tired horses for a check, especially if there's a contentious pace. Exotics.

Trained by Ethan West, Chunk of Gold surprised when he ran second in the Risen Star off odds of 43-1. He finished 9 3/4 lengths behind winner Magnitude, but it was an excellent effort for the colt's first time racing on traditional dirt. He was also second in the Leonatus Stakes at Turfway Park in his second start. West is 0% wins with a 100% in-the-money rate in graded stakes over the last year, per Race Lens. He certainly won't go off at such long odds again this time. Jareth Loveberry has the return call. Exotics.

3. Tiztastic (8-1)

Tiztastic was stuck on the rail in the Rebel, which wasn't the place to be that day. He was the only one on the inside to close while horses on the outside zipped by. Still, he managed an even run to finish fifth. He was stuck in traffic and had to go wide in the Southwest (G3), and I don't think either race showed what he's capable of because Tiztastic gained ground and earned 90 speed ratings in both starts. Second-crop sire Tiz the Law captured one of three starts at 1 1/4 miles and was a multiple winner at 1 1/8 miles. Tiztastic is out of an unraced Tapit mare. Tapit is also Tiz the Law's second-tail sire as he is Tiz the Law's grandsire. Tiztastic's half-sister Interpolate is a stakes-winning sprinter. His dam is half to a pair of stakes-winning sprinter-milers, and his third dam is multiple Grade 1-winning sprinter Strategic Maneuver. The Steve Asmussen trainee returns in 21 days and had a moderate five-furlong breeze last week. Exotics.

Trained by Steve Asmussen, Tiztastic enters off a fifth-place effort in the Rebel, his first finish outside the trifecta in a graded stakes in his career. Tiztastic has a career-best 97 Equibase speed figure when third in the Southwest, and a career-best 90 Brisnet speed rating, tied in his Southwest third and Risen Star fifth. Joel Rosario takes over from Jose Ortiz. Exotics.

4. Yinzer (12-1)

Yinzer jumps into stakes company after finding the winner's circle in his fourth start. The two-length, front-running victory against maidens wasn't as impressive as it looked, as two of his closest three rivals are on their way to career maidenhood.

In 70 attempts, five of Twirling Candy's offspring have won at 1 1/8 miles or farther. Yinzer's full sister is a stakes-placed sprinter, and their dam Rehearsed, a daughter of Tapit, placed in four of nine tries. But Yinzer's extended family is filled with black-type earners, including Rehearsed's full brother Closing Bell, a stakes-winning turf router. Yinzer earned a career-best 87 speed rating, and his late-pace figures are in the 70's. He is likely a rabbit for stablemate Tiztastic. Pass.

Also from the Asmussen barn, Yinzer is a last-out maiden winner, finally getting the victory in his fourth start. Two starts back, Yinzer finished 8 1/4 lengths in fifth behind winner Hypnus in a maiden race. Ben Curtis, who will be the colt's fifth jock in as many races, has the call. Pass.

5. Caldera (5-1)

Caldera owns a win and two second-place finishes at 1 1/16 miles, including dropping the photo to the more experienced Getaway Car in the Sunland Park Derby in Caldera's first start against winners. Getaway Car ran out of gas and was a well-beaten fourth in last week's Virginia Derby. Caldera's speed ratings and late-pace figures have improved in each start, and his career-best 96 rating is one of the best in the Louisiana Derby field.

Liam's Map's progeny have eight victories from 78 attempts at 1 1/8 miles and farther, but only one in a stakes. Yet 11 were second or third in stakes, including Basin in the Arkansas Derby (G1) and Rushie in the Blue Grass Stakes (G2). Caldera is out of the Tiznow mare Send Me On My Way, who placed in one of three starts. Caldera's third dam is the multiple Grade 1 heroine Finder's Fee, who is also the third dam of the sensational 2022 horse of the year, Flightline. Caldera has Rasmussen Factor breeding, which is inbreeding to a superior mare through separate individuals within five generations. The Reine Incantation is the third dam of Unbridled's Song, who is Liam's Map's sire. Incantation is the dam of Seattle Song, who is Tiznow's damsire. Caldera has tactical speed, and Wayne Lukas gave him two pre-race five-furlong bullets at Oaklawn. Sounds great, right? But not so fast. The pretty gray colt's final breeze was in company with Ripped, who placed once in six starts. Caldera was pushed and encouraged with the crop down the lane to keep up, while Ripped was hand urged. Caldera galloped out in front but shut down on his own fairly quickly. Caldera has tactical speed with a pedigree borderline for classic distances. I didn't like his final breeze and while he's a product of a good family, Caldera needs to show he has the class to beat this group. I'm giving him an Exotics shot because Lukas is sneaky.   

Trained by D. Wayne Lukas, Caldera enters off a nose loss in the Sunland Park Derby. That sounds great, except Sunland Park Derby winner Getaway Car just finished fourth, beaten by 8 3/4 lengths, in the Virginia Derby. But Caldera's stablemate American Promise won the Virginia Derby off a fifth-place finish in the Risen Star (G2). Speaking of the Virginia Derby, Authentic Gallop, who won Caldera's second career race, finished seventh, 31 lengths behind the winner. Although Caldera isn't exactly an explosive runner, he does have the added benefit of having beaten his elders while breaking his maiden two starts back. Beating older runners in a maiden race isn't a huge flex, but anything counts, right? Tyler Gaffalione takes over from Rafael Bejarano. I'm on the fence, but I'll pass.

6. Built (4-1)

After a wow-factor 6 3/4-length win in the Gun Runner Stakes, Built methodically gained ground in the Lecomte (G3) but lost the photo to Disco Time. Built made a sustained drive in the 1 1/8-mile Risen Star but had nothing left for the stretch. He wanted no part of the pacesetter Magnatude. Built deferred to his rival and was mentally tired, going up and down and drifting. This cost him the photo for second with the grinder, Chunk of Gold, and Built earned a 76 late-pace figure, the lowest in his career. Surprisingly, Hard Spun has only 11 winners from 113 attempts on dirt at 1 1/8 miles and beyond, but seven won in stakes company and 48% in stakes finished second or third, including Two Phil's, second in the 2023 Kentucky Derby. Built is the first foal out of Curlin's daughter Sea Garden, so he is constructed to handle classic distances. Sea Garden's half-brother Glenville Gardens is a Grade 2-winning turf sprinter in Canada. Built's third dam is Grade 1-winning sprinter Marley Vale, and the family includes Indian Vale, a multiple Grade 2 winner at 1 1/8 miles. Built had a pre-race five-furlong move in 1:00.40, the third best of 31 of the day. Eclipse Thoroughbred Partners founder Aron Wellman noted after the Risen Star that Built faced a track bias in his last two starts, where he raced off the pace. Wayne Catalano gives Built blinkers for the Louisiana Derby, so perhaps we will see Built return to his pacesetting ways. The colt has been a model of consistency throughout his career, twice besting eventual Risen Star hero Magnitude and Virginia Derby runner-up Render Judgment. Yet despite his classic-oriented pedigree, Built must prove he wants to run that far. Exotics.

Trained by Wayne Catalano, Built enters off a third-place finish in the Risen Star. Winner of the Gun Runner and runner-up of the Lecomte by a neck, Built took a shot at Magnitude in the stretch. He tried his hardest, but Magnitude's lead just kept building, and Built was eventually headed at the wire, losing second to long shot Chunk of Gold. Built won the Gun Runner while setting the pace but pressed the pace in the Lecomte and Risen Star. Catalano is going to try blinkers on the colt but is 0% across the board with two starters with this angle in the past year. Jose Ortiz takes the reins from Luis Saez. Exotics.

7. Vassimo (12-1)

In his third start, Vassimo got an education in the Risen Star. He tailgated the early pace before being passed like he was tied to the rail, dropping to seventh place, 7 1/2 lengths behind the second-place horse in the stretch. But Irad Ortiz Jr. guided Vassimo to the outside in deep stretch, and Vassimo steadily made up 4 3/4 lengths on the second-place finisher to gain fourth place and continued to pass horses on the gallop out. Since Magnitude was long gone by that time, the lengths between Vassimo and the second-place finisher, Chunk of Gold, were used. Although Vassimo's Brisnet Speed Rating gained six points to 91, his late-pace figure dropped to 77 after a 103 middle move. Nyquist's son is out of the multiple Grade 2 winner Bsharpsonata and is half to three stakes-placed milers, Mihrab, Play it Loud and Vigilante, the latter two graded-placed turf milers. In addition, a half-sister bore Grade 3 winner Two Sharp, and his dam is half to multiple graded winning sprinter Backtalk. Vassimo's second dam is a stakes-winning turf miler. Todd Pletcher gave Vassimo a pre-race five-furlong move in 1:00.85 in company with the unraced 3-year-old Makes Sense. Vassimo maintained a steady rhythm on the inside while wearing blinkers. His rider gave the reins a couple of shakes near the wire, and Vassimo immediately lengthened his stride. While Makes Sense kept pace, he wasn't moving as well. Vassimo could be closer to the pace and could have a say in the outcome with a better trip. Contender.

Trained by Todd Pletcher, Vassimo was a distant fourth in the Risen Star last out. It was his graded debut, and although he didn't win, it was a solid effort as Magnitude was just much the best that day. Pletcher will outfit Vassimo with blinkers and is 14% wins with a 44% in-the-money clip with charges running with first time blinkers. I did like Vassimo last out, and blinkers might sharpen the colt back up. Regular jock Irad Ortiz Jr. retains the mount. Contender.

8. Furio (12-1)

Furio coasted home a four-length winner in his 3-year-old debut against maidens but was dusted five lengths by Instant Replay in his first start around two turns. Furio was green in the stretch and kept trying to lug into the rail, while Jose Ortiz steadied the colt and tugged on the right rein trying to straighten him out to no avail. Because of his antics, Furio earned an 87 speed rating and a 74 late-pace figure.

Furio has a precocious pedigree, borderline for classic distances.

The fourth-leading second-crop sire McKinzie won twice at 1 1/8 miles and placed second in two of three starts at 1 1/4 miles, although in one of those starts, the Santa Anita Handicap (G1), he was second by a nose and had a troubled trip in the 2019 Breeders' Cup Classic. Race Lens shows he has four winners from 31 starters at 1 1/16 miles on dirt. Two, one on dirt and the other on turf, were unplaced, so early indications are that McKinzie's offspring may either be distance-challenged or need time to mature. Furio's dam Take Charge Angel is a half-sister to the brilliant but fragile Cave Rock, winner of the Del Mar Futurity (G1) and American Pharoah (G1) before finishing second in the 2019 Breeders' Cup Classic to Forte. Furio's second dam Georgie's Angel won the Schuylerville (G3). Joe Sharp gave Furio a five-furlong second-to-last breeze in 59.80, second-best of 13 for the day. Furio figures to be part of the pace and will have speed to his inside. Pass.

Trained by Joe Sharp, Furio is 3: 1-1-1. The colt was third on debut as a 2-year-old but came back four months later to win in his 3-year-old debut. He was most recently second by five lengths to Instant Replay in an optional claimer. Furio dictated the tempo in that match but had no response when Instant Replay came roaring up the middle of the track to win going away. Luis Saez plays fruit-basket turnover with Jose Ortiz, hopping from Built to Furio and vice-versa. Exotics.

9. Instant Replay (6-1)

Instant Replay does his best work when allowed to relax early. He made a last-to-first move in his 3-year-old debut against allowance optional claimers and made up 5 1/2 lengths in the stretch, although he was keen in the opening stages of the event. Instant Replay completed 1 1/16 miles in 1:43.25 with a 6.49 final half-furlong. He earned a career-high 93 speed rating, and his 95 late-pace figure is the best in the Louisiana Derby field.

Second-crop sire Maximum Security won from six furlongs to 1 1/4 miles, including the Kentucky Derby, where he was disqualified to 17 for interference. Instant Replay is out of the Medaglia d'Oro mare Academy Gal. His distaff line is stamina-oriented through his sire and second damsire, Smart Strike. Instant Replay's second and third dams are stakes placed at a mile and 1 1/16 miles, and his third dam won the Maryland Oaks at 1 1/8 miles. Brad Cox gave Instant Replay a sharp four-furlong work in 47.60, followed by an average five furlongs in 1:01.20. Instant Replay could build on his last start, and if he can replicate his two victories, he will be a serious contender.

Trained by Brad Cox, Instant Replay broke his maiden in high dollar claiming company in his third start. The son of Maximum Security has an interesting history against other potential Kentucky Derby contenders. He finished fourth to Publisher's third in his debut, and Publisher went on to finish fourth in the Rebel. He was second to John Battaglia Memorial winner California Burrito in his second start and fourth to Southwest runner-up and Rebel third-place finisher Sandman in his fourth start. He most recently bested fellow entrant Furio in an optional claimer with a career-best 100 Equibase speed figure. Regular rider Florent Geroux has the call. Exotics.

10. Hypnus (10-1)

Hypnus was ambitiously placed in the Risen Star for his first start against experienced winners. He was stuck in traffic the entire way and ran evenly down the lane to finish a nondescript seventh. His speed rating decreased a few points to 89. He rallied in his debut to beat two next-out winners, including Yinzer.  Into Mischief's son is out of Uncle Mo's daughter Dream Tree, the 2017 Starlet (G1) heroine who also captured two Grade 2 events at 3. Dream Tree's full sister bore a stakes placed miler by Into Mischief's son, Practical Joke. The distance should suit this well-bred colt, and I’m drawing a line through his Rebel finish. Exotics.

Trained by Kenny McPeek, Hypnus was seventh in the Rebel last out in his second career start. I liked Hypnus in the Rebel off his maiden victory, a 1 1/16-mile affair that he completed nearly a second faster than Lecomte winner Disco Time on the same card. Hypnus did run into traffic in the Rebel, but I don't think it mattered much as nobody was beating Coal Battle that day. Brian Hernandez Jr. has the return call. I don't want to completely discount this colt, but I need to see a better effort against graded types. Pass.