Head to Head: Arkansas Derby picks and predictions

Ashley

Laurie

Beautiful Shot — Did not have a good showing in his 2018 bow. As the distances have gotten longer, he has just done worse. I expect much of the same here. The colt may be beautiful, but he has no shot.

Beautiful Shot — Was stuck in rush hour traffic the entire way in the Gotham, then had to slam on the breaks to avoid a crash. Arroyo wrapped him up after that. He’s been keeping good company in California and with a decent ride, has a shot to pick up a check. Exotics, if you’re feeling beautiful.

Machismo — Finished a well-beaten 12th in the Blue Grass (G2) just last Saturday. He has faced Magnum Moon before this and did not fare well then. This quick of a turnaround can be a tricky thing. Some horses love it, but some not so much. The declining speed figures are concerning, so I’m going to pass.

Machismo — Nice pedigree for the distance, but he’s not up to this level of competition. The quick turn around and Quartarolo’s 0-10 record in graded stakes tells me Machismo really isn’t.  Pass.

Tenfold  —  Intrigues me. He’s undefeated in two career starts, both on the Oaklawn main track. Those races were at 1 1/16-miles, so he should be well able to handle nine furlongs. Winchell Thoroughbreds could have a good one here, and at 10-1 morning line odds, Tenfold is well worth a play.

Tenfold — He has the pedigree to run all day, by Curlin out of a Tapit half sister to Donegal Moon. His second damsire is Giant’s Causeway and his third dam is 1995 champion grass mare Possibly Perfect. With only a maiden and allowance victory under his girth, Tenfold is still figuring things out. He was stubborn in his last race, sticking his head in front and staying there. Would have been nice if he’d drawn off, but a win is a win. He could surprise and pay tenfold your bet.

Dream Baby Dream — Closed well to grab the place in the Sunland Derby (G3). He’s been a solid in-the-money runner, but he has never faced this level of talent before. A trio of thirds at Oaklawn says that he is okay with the track, but I’m looking elsewhere.

Dream Baby Dream — Sports a miler’s pedigree, but his grinding, late-running style has him passing tired horses to get a piece of the dream. If they go fast early, he could hit the board. Shades of Whitmore and Suddenbreakingnews. Exotics, in a dream.

Solomini — Is eligible to improve second off the layoff. He was second best last out in the Rebel (G2) behind Magnum Moon but also encountered a bit of trouble in the stretch. He has been working sharply for Baffert and is certainly a contender.

Solomini — Does his best when he’s closer to the pace. He made up ground in the Rebel but didn’t change leads while chasing the Moon. Always a contender.

Magnum Moon — Your heavy, undefeated favorite has so far passed every test, including a romp in the Rebel (G2). If he runs back to that form, he will be hard to beat. Contender.

Magnum Moon — As Ashley remarked, he’s passed every test, and can sit on or off the pace. I didn’t like how he was all over the track at the end of the Rebel Stakes, bearing out, then moving back in. He had a fun, bouncy gallop over the Oaklawn dirt a few days ago and was looking good. By Malibu Moon out of an Unbridled’s Song mare, the Pletcher trainee shouldn’t have an issue with nine furlongs. Contender.

Plainsman — Has just a maiden victory to his name and could not beat some of the lesser talents in this race in his last couple of starts. While he does seem to like the Oaklawn track, I do not see him being a factor here.

Plainsman — This son of Flatter is in the same league as Dream Baby Dream. Seems to be a steady, one-paced sort. Unfortunately, that one pace is slower than the pace expected here. Maybe he’ll hold on to complete somebody’s lower exotics. Not mine, but somebody's.

Quip — Was flattered by Flameaway’s runner-up effort in the Blue Grass (G2) and Vino Rosso’s win in the Wood Memorial (G2). He was Blue Grass-bound himself, but a series of events resulted in trainer Brisset opting for this spot instead. Definitely has a good shot here.

Quip —  Has a solid middle-distance pedigree, by Distorted Humor out of a daughter of Indian Charlie. He’ll be tested by Magnum Moon. Originally slated for the Bluegrass, Quip was instead pointed to the Arkansas Derby after Baffert decided to keep Justify home. Could upset the race.

Combatant — Can always be counted on to pick up the pieces. While not a winner, he still picks up a check and will likely do so again here. Use underneath in your exotics.

Combatant — Always second or third best. Nine furlongs could be at the top of his range, but his running style suggests that he could surprise if the pace falls apart. He’ll be fighting it out down the stretch.