Head to Head: Analyzing a competitive San Vicente field

LAURIE

ASHLEY

1. McKinzie Street (10-1)

McKinzie Street is multiple Grade 1-placed, but he's lost ground in his last two starts, the 1 1/16-mile American Pharoah (G1) and the seven-furlong Bob Hope, where he checked in 7 1/2 lengths behind Bullard after contesting a quick pace. The Tim Yakteen trainee's Brisnet ratings are going the wrong way, and his 69 late-pace figure is the lowest in the San Vicente. McKinzie Street is by multiple Grade 1 hero McKinzie, who is no. 2 on the First-Crop sire list. He is the first foal out of the unraced Tale of the Cat mare Karpathos, a half-sister to precocious Graded winner and sire Katharos. McKinzie Street has experience and faces a trio of last-out maiden winners. But he must improve his form to have a shot. Pass.

Trained by Tim Yakteen, McKinzie Street debuted a winner in a mid-level maiden event at Del Mar. The colt took the field gate to wire and defeated Smarty Jones entrant Curvino, a next-out winner and an eventual turf winner. McKinzie Street then finished second in the Del Mar Futurity (G1), third in the American Pharoah (G1), and third in the Bob Hope, 7 1/2 lengths behind fellow entrant Bullard. McKinzie Street posted a career-high 100 Equibase speed figure in the seven-furlong Del Mar Futurity (G1), missing the win by 1 3/4 lengths. Antonio Fresu replaces regular jockey Kazushi Kimura. Contender.

2. Barnes (8-5)

A $3.2 million yearling purchase, Barnes was green in the Churchill stretch in his debut, drifting in the stretch in response to the crop while on his left lead. He paddles with his left foreleg. Barnes captured the 5 1/2-furlong maiden event by a bare head, and his rival Innovator was eventually a distant second to Kale's Angel in the Advent Stakes, so the class of the maiden race is suspect. Kale's Angel is entered in the Smarty Jones Stakes. The Bob Baffert trainee earned an 88 Brisnet speed rating. He had a six-furlong gate drill on Dec. 22 in company with Romanesque, although that one breezed four furlongs. Barnes was professional in his last couple of works, switching leads and staying in his lane. Into Mischief's son is the first foal out of the American Pharoah mare All American Dream. The mare's half-sister, Wind Fire, is a multiple group-placed sprinter in Great Britain. Barnes's third dam is multiple Grade 1-winning sprinter Dream Supreme, who bore Grade 1 winner and sire Majestic Warrior. Barnes can improve off his maiden effort and should improve with distance. Exotics.

Trained by Bob Baffert, Barnes, named for Baffert's longtime assistant Jimmy Barnes, was unveiled at Churchill Downs the day before Thanksgiving. With Martin Garcia up, Barnes tracked the pace while bottled up on the rail. As the field hit the top of the stretch, the colt finally found some racing room and was set down for the drive. Despite exhibiting greenness by drifting out in the stretch and racing on the wrong lead, Barnes was able to wear down the leader to win the photo finish by a head. He received a 98 Equibase speed figure for the effort. Runner-up Innovator finished second in the Advent Stakes next out before breaking his maiden in his second start since this race. Third-place finisher Sinister Smile also ran second in his next outing. J.J. Hernandez will replace Garcia, who will be riding at Oaklawn this weekend. Contender.

3. Romanesque (5-1)

Romanesque graduated at first asking after dueling the entire way in a 6 1/2-furlong maiden event with stablemate Rodriguez. He galloped under the wire 2 1/4 lengths in front and stopped the clock at 1:15.91 with a 6.45-second final half-furlong. The effort earned him a 93 speed rating, and his 97 late-pace figure is the highest in the San Vicente field. Practical Joke's son is out of the winning Alphabet Soup mare Mony'slittlegracie. Only two of her six foals are winners, but her stakes-winning full sister bore two stakes-winning turf milers and a half-sister produced Grade 3-winning turf router Regalo Mio. A $435,000 yearling, Romanesque was professional in his debut and appears the strongest of the Baffert charges. Contender.

Also from the Bob Baffert barn, Romanesque debuted a winner in a 5 1/2-furlong maiden event at Del Mar. The son of Practical Joke raced along the rail as part of a trio before he and stablemate Rodriguez began to draw off from their rivals. The Baffert pair hit the stretch together and battled for the win, with Romanesque putting away Rodriguez late to win by 2 1/4 lengths. So far, only two from that field have made subsequent starts, with one of those being a next-out winner. Mike Smith will replace Hernandez, who will be aboard Barnes instead. Smith has been on a cold streak, going winless since Nov. 3 when he won a claiming race at Del Mar. He has frequently landed in the money, including piloting Atitlan to a third-place finish in the Mathis Mile (G2) and Sumter to a runner-up finish in the Joe Hernandez (G2) in the last week. Exotics.

4. Smooth Cruisein (12-1)

Smooth Cruisein broke slow in his debut and was all over the place in the stretch in response to the crop. Despite the setbacks, he was on "go" the entire way and didn't quit, cruising under the wire a half-length in front. The Karen Headley trainee completed six furlongs in 1:10.71 with a 12.98-second final furlong, and he recorded an 89 speed rating. Smooth Cruisein bested Journalism, who later captured the Los Alamitos Futurity (G2). Girvin's son is out of the winning In Summation mare Smooth Cookie. The mare's half-brother Mr Chocolate Chip is Grade 3-placed, and the second dam is a stakes-winning turf miler. Smooth Cruisein has Rasmussen factor inbreeding to 1982 Champion Sprinter Gold Beauty through her daughter Maplejinsky, second dam of Tale of Ekati, Girvin's sire, and England's horse of the year Dayjur, In Summation's damsire. Smooth Cruisein returns after a 61-day layoff, but he's had a steady work regimen of five- and six-furlong breezes since November. Live long shot.

Trained by Karen Headley, Smooth Cruisein debuted a winner at Santa Anita in October. With Ricardo Gonzalez in the irons, Smooth Cruisein was off slowly but tugged his way into a nice striking position just off the early pace. As the field hit the stretch, Smooth Cruisein put in a relentless rally that saw him grind his way to a half-length win as the 22-1 longest shot on the board. Third-place finisher Journalism won his next two starts, including the Los Alamitos Futurity (G2). According to Race Lens, Headley has not saddled any stakes starters in the past year and is winless, with a 20% in-the-money rate in all stakes races in the last five years. She has two career-graded stakes victories, both Grade 3s won by San Onofre in 2016. Headley has sent out only four starters in five races since Smooth Cruisein won his debut and did not hit the board with any of them. Gonzalez retains the mount. Based on Headley's stats, it would be easy to dismiss this colt all altogether, but Smooth Cruisein has proven that he can compete and win against Baffert's runners. Live long shot.

5. Bullard (4-5)

Bullard is living up to his $675,000 yearling purchase. The only graded winner in the field, Mike McCarthy's charge made short work of four rivals, including McKinzie Street, in the Bob Hope. Although he was outrun through sizzling early fractions, Bullard circled the field four-wide and breezed under the wire 4 3/4 lengths in front, completing seven furlongs in 1:22.55 with a 12.96 final furlong. His Brisnet rating increased seven points to 99. Bullard breezed four furlongs in 49.80 seconds on Dec. 19 in company with the older maiden winner Invigorated. In the beginning, Bullard was relaxed, bounding along with good energy and his ears up despite a tight hold by the rider. Once Bullard switched leads in the stretch, it was business time. His ears flattened, and he pulled slightly ahead of his mate. The ears went back up after the wire. Bullard had the same demeanor in other breezes. Gun Runner’s son is out of the unraced Warrior’s Reward mare Reve d'Amour. His half-sister Mundaye is a multiple stakes-winning sprinter, and she set a track record of 1:21.17 for seven furlongs at Ellis Park in 2020 in the Audubon Oaks. Bullard's female family is anchored by his third and fourth dams, Blush With Pride and Best in Show. He hails from the same family as Belmont Stakes winners Arcangelo, Rags to Riches and Jazil. A one-run closer, Bullard was aided by swift early fractions in both starts. Win contender.

Trained by Mike McCarthy, Bullard is undefeated in two starts, including an emphatic 4 3/4-length victory in the Bob Hope over fellow entrant McKinzie Street, who finished third. Bullard received a career and field-high 105 Equibase speed figure for the Bob Hope (G3). Two from Bullard's debut race were next-out winners, with another two eventually becoming winners. Bob Hope runner-up Madaket, who debuted in the Bob Hope, was a next-out winner. Regular rider Umberto Rispoli retains the mount. Contender.