Head to Head: Nysos faces other graded winners at Santa Anita
Like most California stakes races these days, the Grade 2 Triple Bend Stakes at Santa Anita drew a small field of five. The seven-furlong affair is for 3-year-olds and upwards.
Although there are a couple of months between the two, the Triple Bend serves as a local prep for the Bing Crosby Stakes (G1). Contested at six furlongs, the Bing Crosby is a win-and-you're-in for the Breeders’ Cup Sprint.
The Triple Bend is race seven on Saturday’s 10-race card. Post time is slated for 7:08 p.m. EDT.
We triple-checked our selections and reached similar conclusions.
Ashley |
Laurie |
1. Vlahos (10-1) |
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Vlahos is a Greek surname meaning vlach, which often refers to the Romanized, pastoral populations in the Balkans. Trained by Doug O'Neill, Vlahos the colt enters off a fourth-place effort in a blanket finish of a 6 1/2-furlong optional claimer. Prior to that, he was fifth in the San Carlos (G3). Vlahos likes to set the early tempo but has a difficult time closing the deal. Regular rider Edwin Maldonado has the mount. Pass. |
A winner of two lifetime, Vlahos last had his photo taken in January’s restricted Clocker’s Corner Stakes. Otherwise, his record shows a history of brief bursts of early speed before fading like a bad spray tan. Pass. |
2. Nysos (3-5) |
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Trained by Bob Baffert, lightly raced Nysos just missed in the Churchill Downs Stakes (G1) off a 17-month layoff. Nysos settled in mid-pack early and went wide off the far turn, with the front-running four stacked across the track. He steadily gained ground throughout the stretch drive and was part of a wild finish that saw the top four necks apart, with Nysos and Banishing in a dead heat for second. Although it was Nysos’s first career defeat, you can’t take anything away from him. First off, a Grade 1 on a sloppy track after a 17-month layoff … just wow. He had every excuse and needed none of them. J.J. Hernandez gets the mount for the first time. Top choice. |
Brilliant yet fragile, Nysos dominated the California scene in his first trio of starts by a combined 16 1/4 lengths. After a lengthy break, the Bob Baffert trainee returned in the Churchill Downs Stakes on the Kentucky Derby undercard. Although he tasted defeat for the first time, it was an excellent effort, finishing second in a thrilling three-way photo. Nysos has been firing bullets in the morning, including a pre-race five-furlong move in 59.2 seconds. Working solo, Nysos did it on his own without being pushed or asked for his best. Contender. |
3. Spirit of Makena (12-1) |
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Trained by George Papaprodromou, Spirit of Makena most recently was third in the San Carlos (G3). It was the 7-year-old’s first start in 18 months. He ran huge in defeat, leading at the top of the stretch before being edged out for the top two spots. He did win the 2023 rendition of this race, his last victory, before tailing off badly in his next three starts. Kyle Frey has the return call. Live long shot. |
Spirit of Makena hasn’t visited the winner’s circle since he won the 2023 edition of the Triple Bend. Sometime between May and July of that year, the 7-year-old lost his spark. Trainer George Papaprodromou gave him an extended vacation until this March, which seemed to help. Spirit of Makena returned in the seven-furlong San Carlos (G3). He pressed the pace while traveling wide through early fractions of 22.30, 45.34, and 1:10.59. He got a little tired at the end, but Spirit of Makena hung in there and finished third, bested 1 1/4 lengths. He recorded a 99 Brisnet Speed Rating and a 94 late-pace figure,
comparable to his effort in last year’s San Carlos (G3). Long shot chance. |
4. Smooth Cruisein (6-1) |
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Trained by Karen Headley, Smooth Cruisein had no answer to California’s top Kentucky Derby prospects this winter. But Headly tried him against his elders in a mid-level optional claimer, and he came away victorious. It was a career-best effort, earning a 104 Equibase speed figure. That race was contested on a sloppy track, which is very unusual for California. Headley is 0% across the board in graded stakes in the last five years, including this colt, who finished fourth and fifth in fields of five. Tiago Pereira has the return call. Pass. |
Between winning his debut and an optional-claiming allowance dontest, Smooth Cruisein was no threat to Barnes and our Preakness hero Journalism in a pair of graded stakes on the Derby trail. The 3-year-old splashed six furlongs over Santa Anita’s sloppy track in 1:09.56, completing his final furlong in a sharp 12.37. The Karen Headley trainee’s speed ratings and late-pace figures have risen in each start this year and although he’s facing older, more experienced rivals, Smooth Cruisen has the benefit of a recent race and can improve off the effort. But he needs to prove he can run with the big boys. Pass. |
5. Dr. Venkman (2-1) |
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Trained by Mark Glatt, Dr. Venkman will be making his first start since finishing fourth in the Pacific Classic (G1) on Aug. 31. It was the lightly raced gelding’s only finish outside the exacta in his six-race career, and the distance might have been a factor. This is the second significant layoff of Dr. Venkman’s career, but Glatt is 17% wins with a 50% in-the-money rate, with runners first off a 6+ month layoff. Antonio Fresu has the call. Exotics. |
Dr. Venkman slimed the field by a length in the San Diego Handicap (G2) last July before finishing a nondescript fourth in the 1 1/4-mile Pacific Classic (G1). He ghosted the racing scene until now, and he gets back to a more comfortable seven furlongs. The Mark Glatt trainee is capable of throwing double-digit speed ratings and hopes to improve on last year’s Triple Bend runner-up finish. Exotics. |
Final thoughts
Ashley: Layoffs are the name of the game in the Triple Bend. We have Nysos and Spirit of Makena, both second off a layoff of 17-plus months. Then we have Dr. Venkman in after a nine-month vacation. Nysos and Dr. Venkman are the top two morning-line choices, and Spirit of Makena is inexplicably the 12-1 outsider.
On paper, Vlahos seems to be the most likely to go to the lead, but I anticipate a closely bunched field as none of these are deep closers.
Nysos was so impressive off the layoff that he’s my top choice. I’m embracing my fate of choking on chalk with this selection. However, I’m going to balance him out with the morning-line long shot. Spirit of Makena has been off the board at Santa Anita and the seven-furlong distance only once each.
Laurie: Speaking of layoffs, only one of the last dozen Triple Bend heroes won the race in his first start off the layoff. The rest were making their second or third start of the season.
Ten hit the top four in their previous start, and eight gained ground in that race.
Pacesetters and pressers rule in the Triple Bend. As Ashley observed, it’s a small field. Post position 1 yielded two winners, with seven more making up the superfecta spots.
Favorites are hit or miss. Four have won, and three placed second or third.
Once upon a time, the Triple Bend Stakes was called the Triple Bend Invitational Handicap, a prestigious Grade 1 event. It lost Grade 1 status in 2019 after City of Light captured it on his way to winning the Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile.
This year’s contest is filled with Grade 2 and Grade 3 types, although Nysos may earn his Grade 1 victory later this year.
Nysos is the class of the field, has tactical speed and is the obvious one to beat.
Dr. Venkman has a pacesetting-pressing style, loves the distance and runs well fresh. Plus, I’m a Ghostbusters fan and must use him.
Spirit of Makena has breezed consecutively since his first start off the layoff, including a bullet five furlongs in early May. That’s a good sign.
On paper, the Triple Bend is straightforward. Nysos has the class and the two sons of Ghostzapper can fill out the trifecta.
Selections
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