Head to Head: 2 views of the Fleur de Lis Stakes
The $500,000, Grade 2 Fleur de Lis Stakes, contested at 1 1/8 miles at Churchill Downs on Saturday, drew a field of six, five of whom are graded-stakes winners. Topping the field is Scylla, a full sister to recent Ohio Derby (G3) winner Batten Down.
The Fleur de Lis race has been graced by legends such as Letruska, Midnight Bisou, Forever Unbridled, Royal Delta, Rachel Alexandra and Serena’s Song.
Stonestreet homebred Pauline’s Pearl stood in the winner’s circle one final time in last year’s Fleur de Lis and bid adieu to the track a race later.
Saturday’s Fleur de Lis Stakes is the eighth race on the 12-race card. Post time is 4:25 p.m. EDT. There’s a 50 percent to 60 percent chance of afternoon thunderstorms.
Ashley Tamulonis of From Coast to Coast and Laurie Ross of Pedigree Power sift through a short but talented field hunting for a Breeders’ Cup Distaff candidate.
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Ashley |
Laurie |
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1. Free Like a Girl (6-1) |
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Trained by Chasey Deville Pomier, Free Like a Girl is a throwback to when horses raced rather than just logged a bunch of works. The 5-year-old mare has a career record of 39: 17-11-6. So far this year, she’s 7: 2-3-2 and was most recently seen finishing second to Idiomatic in the La Troienne (G1). Although the mare is multiple graded-stakes placed, she has yet to win a graded stakes, though she’s given a very good accounting of herself in her last two attempts, hitting the board in both. In the last five years, Pomier is 0 percent in graded stakes but has an 86 percent in-the-money rate. Fun fact: six of her seven graded starts over that time frame were made by Free Like a Girl while High On Gin was Pomier’s only off-the-board placing, according to Race Lens. Corey Lanerie gets the return call. Exotics. |
Free Like a Girl has matured during the last year from restricted stakes in the bayou to multiple Grade 1 placed, with career earnings of $1,618,478. This Louisiana-bred is outperforming her humble $5,500 price tag and her sire’s $2,500 stud fee. The class has been passed through her distaff line each generation and traces back in a solid line to her seventh dam, Review, who produced five champions. Chasey Pomier has taken Free Like a Girl from graduating at Evangeline three years ago to closing for second place in the La Troienne (G1) over a sloppy track, sandwiched between last year’s two champs, older mare Idiomatic, who set an uncontested pace, and 3-year-old champ Pretty Mischievous. In the Apple Blossom (G1), her second-to-last start, Free Like a Girl wasn’t going to catch the free-running Adare Manor and looked like she would hold second place, only to be nipped 3/4 length by the fast-closing Flying Connection. Free Like a Girl has bested three Fleur de Lis rivals, Shotgun Hottie, Taxed and Xigera, in the La Troienne or Apple Blossom. Free Like a Girl’s Brisnet Speed Ratings have climbed gradually in her last three starts to 95, and she hit the board in six of seven over an off track. While I’m not gilding the lily, I consider Free Like a Girl a Contender.
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2. Shotgun Hottie (4-1) |
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Trained by Cherie DeVaux, Shotgun Hottie enters this spot off a 5 3/4-length romp in the Allaire DuPont Distaff on the Black-Eyed Susan undercard at Pimlico. She was off the board in her three other starts this year, finishing sixth in the Bayakoa (G3), fourth in the Azeri (G2), and fourth in the Apple Blossom (G1), all at Oaklawn Park. She’s been off the board only five times in her career, with three of those at Oaklawn, so it’s possible she just didn’t like the Hot Springs track, especially since she bounced back to receive a career-best 111 Equibase speed figure in the Distaff last out. DeVaux has had a career year in 2024, and Paco Lopez, who gets the return call, has been hot in the last 30 days, winning at a 26 percent clip. Shotgun Hottie is 2: 1-0-1 at the Fleur de Lis distance. Contender.
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A Grade 3 winner, Shotgun Hottie is knocking on the Grade 1 stakes door. Gun Runner’s daughter proved 1 1/8 miles isn’t an issue – against lesser types, anyway, by running away in a 5 3/4-length Allaire DuPont Distaff victory. The Cherie DeVaux trainee earned a career-high 103 Brisnet rating, a 14-point jump from her Apple Blossom fourth-place finish, which might signal a regression. Shotgun Hottie has tactical speed as a pacesetter-presser and has hit the board in two of three starts over an off track, and Monmonth-based Paco Lopez excels with pacesetter-pressers. Shotgun Hottie fits here, and if it wasn’t for the 14-point speed-rating jump, she would be among my picks. Pass.
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3. Taxed (5-1) |
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Trained by Randy Morse, Taxed has had a very up-and-down career. She showed promise last season when finishing second in the Martha Washington, the Fantasy (G3) and the Indiana Oaks (G3) while upsetting the Black-Eyed Susan (G2) at 11-1. This year she’s 3: 2-0-0, winning two optional claimers while finishing a well-beaten fifth in the Apple Blossom (G1). Morse is just 8 percent with a 33 percent in-the-money rate in graded stakes over the past five years, according to Race Lens; Taxed’s Black-Eyed Susan triumph was his only victory during that time period. Brian Hernandez Jr. has the return call off the duo’s triumph at Churchill Downs last out with a career-high 102 Equibase speed figure. With a 4: 2-0-1 under the Twin Spires, you can’t ignore Taxed completely. Exotics.
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Taxed hopes to regain her 3-year-old form when she captured the Black-Eyed Susan (G2). The Randy Morse trainee was bested by Free Like a Girl in the Apple Blossom and by Xigera in the Seneca Overnight Stakes. The pretty gray filly’s speed ratings are in the high 80s to low 90s, yet her late-pace ratings are typically in the high 90s to 100, reflecting her closing running style. Taxed hasn’t strung two wins together, and she’s too inconsistent for me to recommend her. Pass.
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4. Scylla (6-5) |
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Trained by Bill Mott, Scylla’s Shawnee (G3) victory was flattered this past weekend when full brother Batten Down won the Ohio Derby (G3). The regally bred filly is now 6: 4-1-1 lifetime and 3-for-3 at Churchill Downs with wins in the Shawnee and two optional claimers. This will be the Scylla’s first attempt at 1 1/8 miles, but if her brothers are any good indication, that should be well within her scope. Regular rider Javier Castellano retains the mount. Contender.
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Ashley noted that Scylla is a horse-for-course at Churchill, which is rare for Tapit’s offspring. However, as her brothers are large grays, the bay filly favors her dam Close Hatches and damsire First Defense in coat color and confirmation. Scylla has tactical speed and can close or press the pace as the race’s speed dictates. That and her pedigree indicate 1 1/8 miles shouldn’t be an issue. The Bill Mott trainee’s speed ratings have improved in her last three starts, and she must be considered a contender.
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5. Occult (6-1) |
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Trained by Chad Brown, Occult was on the pace in the Serena’s Song last out before ultimately crossing the wire in second. But he was disqualified and placed third for drifting in and out in the stretch, causing Venti Valentine to slam on the brakes and lose momentum. It was the filly’s first race off a 6 1/2-month layoff, so it’s understandable that she was rusty and got a bit tired. Occult’s last win came a year ago to the day in the Monmouth Oaks (G3), which she won by 10 1/4 lengths. She then was third in both the Cotillion (G1) and the Mother Goose (G2) to close out her year. This will be the filly’s first race at Churchill Downs, but she’s 3: 1-0-1 at the 1 1/8-mile distance. Her career-best Equibase speed figure is the 104 she received when finishing thire, beaten by just 1 3/4 lengths, in the Cotillion. Brown is 27 percent with a 60 percent in-the-money clip with runners second off the layoff and 18 percent with a 52 percent in-the-money rate when that second start off the layoff is a graded stake. Irad Ortiz Jr. has the call. Exotics.
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Occult has been hit or miss throughout her career. When she’s good, she’s very, very good, with winning distances between 3 3/4 lengths to 10 1/4 lengths. Yet that’s happened only three times. The Chad Brown trainee wasn’t ready for prime time in her 4-year-old debut. Occult gave them a half-length head start in the Serena’s Song Stakes and was pushed six wide on the first turn. She took the lead in the stretch, and Javier Castellano pulled her to the rail, causing Venti Valentine to take up sharply to avoid an accident. Occult then drifted out to the fast-closing Kathleen O. but finished 3/4 length behind that one. Occult was disqualified to third place. Into Mischief’s daughter earned an 86 speed rating. Her average ratings range in the 90s, so she should build off her last race, and she’s hit the board in all four starts over an off track. Irad Ortiz Jr. gets back in the saddle. He’s looking for his first victory with Occult, as the pair have finished third all three times when they teamed. Exotics. |
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6. Xigera (9-2) |
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Trained by Philip Bauer, Xigera finished her 3-year-old season with three straight wins after switching from turf to dirt. It doesn’t matter which surface she runs on however, as she is Grade 1 placed on the turf and a Grade 2 winner on the dirt. She hasn’t quite gotten back to top form this year, however. In her 2024 bow, which came off a 5 1/2-month layoff, she finished fifth, beaten by 39 1/4 lengths in the La Troienne (G1). Last out, she was a distant second to Scylla in the Shawnee (G3). Xigera loves Churchill Downs with a 4: 2-1-0 record over the course and is 2-for-2 at the Fleur de Lis distance. Bauer is 21 percent with a 58 percent in-the-money clip with runners third off the layoff and 20 percent with a 60 percenet in-the-money rate when that start is in graded stakes. Regular rider Julien Leparoux gets the leg up. Contender.
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Xigera needed the start in the La Troienne, a tough place to make her 4-year-old debut and first over an off track. She returned to finish second behind Scylla in the Shawnee (G3). Since then, the Philip Bauer trainee posted two sharp breezes: a bullet five-furlong 58.2 move on June 15 and four furlongs in 47 flat on June 22, second-best of 150 of the day. The Grade 2 winner has outside speed, and once she gets the lead in the stretch, it’s all over. Also, Nyquist is a superior mud sire. Race Lens shows a 21 percent win rate on off tracks in routes and 29 percent wins for the surface-routes at Churchill. Contender. |
Final thoughts
Ashley: Once again, we have a race where you can make
a case for anyone in the field. With only six entrants, this is more of a sit
back and watch race rather than a betting one. But for the sake of hopefully
cashing a winning ticket, let’s try to whittle this thing down.
Since Churchill Downs doesn’t offer a 10-cent superfecta wager, keying all in each spot of the super results in a $360 ticket, and you’re not going to turn a profit on that. Likewise, a 50-cent trifecta wager keying all in each spot is $60. Again, not worth it.
So, let’s keep this simple. I loved Batten Down in the Ohio Derby last weekend, and I love Scylla here. She’s my top selection, hooves down.
Occult, with Irad Ortiz Jr., must be respected as he’s the top jockey in the country, and Shotgun Hottie enters off a career-best race. Free Like a Girl wasn’t huge on my radar as the only non-graded stakes winner in the field, but with the current weather forecast, I’m moving her up since she’s 7: 2-4-0 on an off track. Taxed is inconsistent and Xigera was off the board in her previous attempt over a wet track, so those will be the two I’m leaving out.
Laurie: Only three Fleur de Lis heroines won their prep in the last dozen years. Four used the La Troienne as a stepping stone, finishing second twice, sixth and ninth. Speed is favored, with pressers dominating and two pacesetters prevailing. Two closers also won.
Only one favorite finished worse than fourth; five won, but the last two placed third. Seven from post 1 figured in the superfecta.
As Ashley noted, this is a closely matched field. Scylla, Free Like a Girl, and Xigera appear closely matched.
Scylla is up and coming, the deserved favorite, and absolutely loves Churchill. Although Tapit’s offspring have a 7 percent win rate on off tracks, Scylla is a bay like her damsire and physically resembles Close Hatches. Scylla beat a well-regarded group in the Shawnee Stakes, including CCA Oaks (G1) heroine Wet Paint. Although she’s not a frightening mythical Greek figure, Scylla is pretty intimidating in this spot.
Free Like a Girl didn’t embarrass herself running against two champions in the La Troienne over a sloppy track. She cut the corner and was in tight next to Idiomatic until that one switched gears and took off like a Ferrari. Free Like a Girl kept her runner-up position.
Xigera had a challenging task when the La Troienne came up with a pair of heavy hitters, and she was making her first start off a layoff and at 1 1/8 miles over a sloppy track. She was in the hunt in the Shawnee and bested Wet Paint by 1 1/4 lengths. Unlike Ashley, I’ve no fear that Xigera won’t handle the off going. Both half-siblings and her dam won over the slop, and I mentioned that Nyquist is a superior mud sire.
Selections
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Ashley |
Laurie |
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4. Scylla (6-5) |
4. Scylla (6-5) |
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5. Occult (6-1) |
1. Free Like a Girl (6-1) |
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2. Shotgun Hottie (4-1) |
6. Xigera (9-2) |
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1. Free Like a Girl (6-1) |
5. Occult (6-1) |