Head to Head: 2-year-old fillies shine in Golden Rod Stakes

Ashley

Laurie

1.   Eclatant (5-2)

Trained by Brad Cox, the Stonestreet homebred Eclatant, French for brilliant or shining, is undefeated in two starts. She made her debut June 21 in a 5 1/2-furlong maiden event at Churchill Downs. The runner-up from that race, La Cara, went on to win the Pocahontas (G3) and ran fifth in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies. One other filly from the field was a next-out winner on the turf. Eclatant's next race was a six-furlong, high-level optional claimer at Keeneland. She did not beat much in that field. But she did it handily with moderate urging from jockey Florent Geroux, who retains the mount in the Golden Rod. Eclatant received a 91 Equibase speed figure for her debut and an 86 for her follow-up race. Cox is 36% wins with a 66% in-the-money rate with runners stretching out from a sprint to a route, according to Race Lens. I like the conservative route of going through some of Eclatant's conditions rather than throwing her immediately into graded company, and the combo of Cox and Geroux is a potent one. Contender.

Eclatant was professional in both starts, and Florent Geroux rode with confidence. The Brad Cox trainee breaks quickly yet is content to settle off the pace as asked. In her second start, Eclatant tracked swift quarters of 21.73, 45 and 57.21 seconds before taking over to win the six-furlong contest by 1 1/4 lengths in 1:09.96, with a 12.75-second final furlong. Her Brisnet Speed Rating rose to 90, and her late-pace figure is 91, good enough for third best in the Golden Rod field. Into Mischief's daughter shouldn't have a problem with two turns. Her dam is by Scat Daddy, and Eclatant is a half-sister to Grade 3-winning turf miler Mutasaabeq. Their dam's half-sister bore multiple Grade 1 hero White Abarrio. Eclatant posted a pair of five-furlong works, and her rail post should help her save ground early. Contender.

2.   Fixin to Bee (15-1)

Trained by Rusty Arnold, Fixin to Bee is a turf runner who finally found the winner's circle in her third career start. In her debut, she finished fifth in a 5 1/2-furlong maiden event at Ellis Park. She was then fourth in a one-mile maiden race at Kentucky Downs before getting the job done by a neck in a one-mile maiden race at Keeneland last out. One filly from Fixin to Bee's debut race went on to become a winner and then stakes-placed, and her second race had two other next-out winners. Fixin to Bee's most recent race has so far had only one filly make a subsequent start, and she returned a winner. Fixin to Bee's Equibase speed figures have risen from 58 to 71 and then 81, but how that will translate to dirt remains to be seen. Arnold is just 10% wins with a 43% in-the-money rate with turf-to-dirt runners, according to Race Lens. John Velazquez gets the call for the first time and will be the filly's fourth jockey in as many starts. Pass.

Fixin to Bee gradually improved to graduate in her third start over the lawn in a thrilling four-horse blanket finish. Mshawish's daughter has a solid turf pedigree and is out of the multiple stakes-winning turf miler Susie Bee, a daughter of English Channel. Fixin to Bee's second dam is a full sister to Grade 1 winner Tactical Cat. Her top Brisnet rating is 78, and although she breezes in company on the dirt, her stride isn't as smooth as her competitors and she struggles to keep pace. Pass.

3.   Good Cheer (4-5)

Also from the Brad Cox barn, Good Cheer is undefeated in three starts and has won her races by a combined 30 lengths. Good Cheer made her debut at Horseshoe Indianapolis, winning a one-mile maiden event by 8 1/4 lengths. Cox then shipped the filly to Churchill Downs, where she won a 1 1/16-mile, high-level optional claimer by 17 lengths in the slop before annexing the Rags to Riches Stakes at the same distance by 4 3/4 lengths. Good Cheer's debut race produced an eventual winner and a next-out winner. Her second race featured a stakes-placed runner, and she beat a Grade 1-placed runner in the Rags to Riches. This Godolphin homebred received a 69 Equibase speed figure in her debut and a field and career-best 94 in both starts at Churchill Downs. The only knock against this well-bred filly is that she has yet to face more than four rivals in any of her races. I like that Good Cheer already has two victories at the Golden Rod distance. Regular rider Luis Saez retains the mount. Contender.

Good Cheer is untested in a trio of starts despite facing trouble twice. She was squeezed back at the start of her debut, but it wasn't a problem. The Brad Cox trainee ping-ponged between rivals exiting the starting gate in the Rags to Riches Stakes, which caused her to take back to last place. The incident was advantageous since Good Cheer missed the usual scramble for the lead and allowed Luis Saez to put her in a ground-saving position. A Godolphin homebred, Medaglia d'Oro’s daughter is out of multiple Grade 1 winner Wedding Toast, who was successful from seven furlongs to 1 1/8 miles. Good Cheer's second dam is a half to multiple Grade 1 winner Conagree. Good Cheer earned a 90 Brisnet rating for her Rages to Riches romp. She's untested, and most of the Golden Rod field won't be challenging. Contender.

4.   Quietside (3-1)

Trained by John Ortiz, Quietside was a debut winner at Saratoga in a six-furlong maiden event. A couple of the fillies from that field hit the board in their next outings, but none have become winners. Quietside then dropped two decisions to three-time Grade 1 winner, Breeder's Cup Juvenile Fillies heroine and champion-apparent Immersive. In the Spinaway (G1), Quietside got the jump on Immersive, spurting away to a 2 1/2 length lead, but Immersive wore her down with a relentless rally and swept past her in the final strides to win by 1 1/4 lengths. The Alcibiades (G1) was Quietside's first attempt around two turns, and it did not go as hoped. It was Immersive who got the better trip, and despite her best efforts, Quietside could not get to her, finishing 3 1/4 lengths back in third. Although Immersive is clearly an excellent filly, I do not think Quietside wanted the 1 1/16-mile distance of the Alcibiades (G1), as she posted her lowest Equibase speed figure to date in that race. But since she is battle-tested at the highest level, it would be a crime to leave her off your tickets. Tyler Gaffalione takes over from regular rider Saez, who stuck with Good Cheer. Use in all spots.

After graduating at Saratoga by an impressive 6 1/4 lengths, Quietside had two unfortunate meet-ups with eventual Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies heroine and likely 2-year-old champion Immersive. The John Ortiz trainee shipped for the Alcibiades (G1) while trying two turns for the first time. She was three to five wide the entire way and was unfocused through the stretch yet still gained ground to finish third. Malibu Moon's daughter is the first competitor out of Grade 2-winning sprinter Benner Island. Benner Island's full sister, Victim of Love, is a two-time winner of the Vagrancy Handicap (G3), and their half-brother High North captured the Iowa Derby. Two other half-brothers are stakes placed. Her Alcibiades was a reasonable attempt, and Quietside can improve on the effort in this drop in company. Contender.

5.   Sturgeon Moon (20-1)

Trained by Paulo Lobo, Sturgeon Moon debuted a winner at Horseshoe Indianapolis in a five-furlong maiden event. She then was second in a six-furlong allowance race at that same track before winning a 1 1/16-mile optional claimer at Keeneland. Surgeon Moon's debut field produced two eventual winners, her second race produced an eventual Indiana-bred stakes placed runner, and the field she faced last out, in which she was the 32-1 upset winner, was nothing to write home about. Lobo is 0% across the board in graded-stakes races in the last year and just 8% wins with a 19% in the money rate in graded stakes over the last five years, according to Race Lens. Regular rider Evin Roman, who is also 0% across the board in graded stakes in the last year, retains the mount. Pass.

After graduating at first asking, Sturgeon Moon regressed slightly in her second start. But she showed tactical speed in her latest contest despite Evin Roman having to tap the brakes multiple times, eventually falling to second-last by the time they hit the far turn. Sturgeon Moon athletically cut the corner and slid up the rail to surprise the field in a visually impressive move. The victory wasn't outstanding on the stopwatch, as it took 1:47.75 to complete 1 1/16 miles. By the first-crop sire Instagrand, Sturgeon Moon has a sprinter-miler pedigree. She is the first competitor out of an unraced Warrior's Reward mare. Her dam is half to Grade 3-placed sprinter Ferocious. Multiple Grade 1 winner and sire Leroidesanimaux is part of the extended family. Sturgeon Moon's Brisnet ratings are stuck in the 70s. She could evolve into a decent 3-year-old but appears up against it here. Pass.

6.   My Lil Punky (30-1)

Trained by John Ennis, My Lil Punky took three starts to finally break her maiden. She was third in a six-furlong event at Ellis Park in her debut and second in a 6 1/2-furlong maiden race at Churchill Downs before breaking through with a victory in a six-furlong maiden event at Keeneland. My Lil Punky's debut race has produced one eventual winner. Muhimma, the winner of My Lil Punky's second race, easily won a high-level optional claimer in her next start to stay perfect, and none from My Lil Punky's most recent race have become winners. Ennis is 14% wins with a 38% in-the-money clip with runners stretching out from a sprint to a route, and 0% wins with a 29% in-the-money rate in graded stakes over the past year, as Race Lens tells us. Edgar Morales, who was aboard the filly in her last two races, retains the mount. Pass.

My Lil Punky improved in each outing and visited the winner's circle in her last start. Her winning time for six furlongs was an average 1:11.97, but she completed her final furlong in a poky 13.40, earning a career-best 82 speed rating. Outwork's daughter is out of a winning Posse mare. The second generation of My Lil Punky's distaff line includes Grade 1 hero Tourist, plus a smattering of listed and graded winners, including multiple Grade 3-winning turf mare Mizz Money. My Lil Punky appears a cut below the best, and she could regress off her maiden victory. Pass.

7.   Flash Wear (20-1)

Trained by Thomas Vance, Flash Wear also took three tries to find the winner's circle. She was third on debut in a five-furlong maiden event at Churchill Downs and then second in a six-furlong maiden race, also at Churchill Downs. The filly broke through in her third start under the twin spires, winning a one-mile maiden event by an easy four lengths. None from that first race have become winners. Both the winner and the third-place finisher from Flash Wear's second race were also next out winners, and the runner-up from Flash Wear's most recent race won her subsequent start. Race Lens shows Vance has not saddled a graded-stakes starter in at least the last five years. Cristian Torres, who rode the filly in her last two starts, has the return call. Pass.

Like My Lil Punky, Flash Wear graduated in her third start, although the race was more impressive as the Thomas Vance trainee drew off by four lengths. Flash Wear traveled a mile in 1:37.93, getting her final furlong in 12.73. She earned an 84 Brisnet rating, and her 93 late pace figure is the second highest in the Golden Rod field. By the first-crop sire Instilled Regard, Flash Wear is a half-sister to stakes-winning turf miler Flashiest. Their second dam Rich in Spirit is a multiple Grade 3 winner on turf up to 1 3/16 miles. Flash Wear should handle the extra distance. She's worth a look for lower exotics, especially if one of the top three doesn't run their race.