Handicapping the Sunland Derby

LAURIE

ASHLEY

FIRING LINE (Line of David - Sister Girl Blues, by Hold for Gold) is the only colt who has battled Dortmund to a head decision. Both times Firing Line was on the losing end, but not for lack of trying.  He ships in for a confidence builder and to stay away from the monster Dortmund, who will be the likely favorite for the Santa Anita Derby. Firing Line’s dam battled the Champion mare Azeri for 1 1/8 miles in the Vanity Stakes (G-1) before being outclassed by only two lengths. Sister Girl Blues is a half sister to Dwyer Stakes winner Mint Lane.  This colt has a classy pedigree and the talent to go with it.  I agree with Ashley and the rest of the racing world, Firing Line outclasses everyone in the field. Contender.

Firing Line—Finally out of the shadow of Dortmund and with Lord Nelson scratched, it looks like it may finally be Firing Line’s time to shine. The Simon Callaghan trainee has done nothing wrong in his 4 starts except to have the misfortune of facing the mighty Dortmund in 2 of his 4 starts. Looks like this will be a chalk fest. Contender.

LORD NELSON (Pulpit - African Jade, by Seeking the Gold) Scratched.

Lord Nelson—SCRATCHED

WHERE'S THE MOON (Malibu Moon - Aldiza, by Storm Cat) finally saw the moonlight when he became a three year old. After a third place finish in his first start of the year, the son of Malibu Moon switched stables and glowed in a 6 ½ length victory over maidens.  He showed further improvement winning the Mine That Bird Derby.  Where’s the Moon is a ¾ brother to the multiple stakes winner Altisse and Grade 3 placed Alchemist.  Their dam is a multiple stakes winner who fought the Champion Encena and beat that one by a nose in a thrilling victory in the Go For Wand (G-1) at 1 1/8 miles.  Where’s the Moon’s third dam is the blue hen Courtly Dee. This gelding has the pedigree, should love the distance and is starting to put it all together.  What’s not to like? Trainer Henry Dominguez’s  0-15 record in graded stakes, but Where’s the Moon is the strongest of his three entries. Dominguez won the Sunland Derby in 2007 with Song of Navarone. Exotics contender.

Where’s the Moon—I’m a bit leery of getting too excited about this one. After three straight dull races in Southern California, this gelded son of Malibu Moon improved in his first start at Sunland Park. A trainer switch from Johnnie Nall to Henry Dominguez resulted in further improvement and two straight wins. So did Dominguez figure out what makes Where’s the Moon tick or did the step down in competition do the trick? Either way, it looks as though the gelding could pick up a piece of it as he obviously likes the Sunland track. Exotics.

WHY TWO (Bob and John - Maria's Legend, by Maria's Mon)  was fourth in his debut, but next time out, beat two horses that had finished in front of him. Why Two has shown improvement in each of his three races and won the Turf Paradise Derby in his last start.  His dam is a half to a stakes placed runner, but otherwise, there is little blacktype in this female family.  He should have the stamina to handle the stretch out and can win on or off of the lead. Contender for exotics.

Why Two—Has won his last two after debuting an even 4^th. His last race was the Turf Paradise Derby, which he won in wire-to-wire fashion under urging. His last two works earned bullet status, and his final published work was a blazing 3 furlong move in :34.60. It appears trainer Michael Machowsky has this son of 2006 Wood Memorial winner Bob and John tightened and ready to go. Victor Espinoza hops back aboard. Exotics.

MALIBU MOGUL (Malibu Moon - Perfectly Pretty, by Bertrando) dueled through the stretch to prevail by a head over allowance foes at Sunland in his last start.  His time of 1:09 for six furlongs was ok, but his speed figures are lacking.  Malibu Mogul is a half brother to California Sprint Champ Idiot Proof. Although he adds blinkers in an effort to harness his speed and get him to relax, jumping from six to nine furlongs is no easy task for a front runner. Has he been entered as a rabbit for his stablemate Where’s the Moon?  Pass.

Malibu Mogul—Will sport blinkers for the first time. Like Where’s the Moon, Malibu Mogul either benefitted from a step down in competition by moving to Sunland or trainer Henry Dominguez worked his magic on him. Another similarity? Both entrants carry the lime green and blue striped silks of J. Kirk and Judy Robison and are by Malibu Moon. But while I like Where’s the Moon’s chances, I believe I have to pass on Malibu Mogul, especially since he does not have a published work since February 27.

TIZNOW R J (Tiznow - Ruban Bleu, by Broken Vow) is also looking for a confidence builder and to get away from the Fairgrounds monster International Star.  After demolishing maidens by 13 lengths, Tiznow RJ returned to finish third in the LeComte.  He was wide in the Risen Star and finished a zip code away from the winner.  The colt’s speed figures decreased in both stakes starts.  Tiznow RJ’s dam is a stakes placed half sister to the Japanese Champion Miler Good Ba Ba. Trainer Steve Asmussen won the Sunland Derby with Daddy Nose Best in 2013, but that one entered with a stakes victory under his girth.  If Tiznow RJ can return to the form of his maiden victory, he might have a chance to hit the board.  Doubtful, so I’ll pass.

Tiznow R J—Heads west looking for some softer competition. A third in the LeComte turned into a disappointing 7^th in the Risen Star. He looks to benefit from this easier placing, but I don’t think it’ll be enough to best Firing Line. Contender.

PAIN AND MISERY (Bob and John - Singing Doe, by Running Stag) did so well at Zia Park last year that he was sent to run with the big boys at Santa Anita.  Pain and Misery finished second by a neck to Bench Warrant in a turf stakes, but it was painful for his backers when the gelding was off slow and didn’t run a step in the San Felipe.  Pain and Misery’s dam is a half sister to Awesome I Am, who placed in the Gazelle (G-1) at 1 1/8 miles as well as winning a listed stakes at a mile.   Pain and Misery  makes up the trio of Henry Dominguez’s entries in the Sunland Park Derby.  His speed figures aren’t that great. Pass.

Pain and Misery—Pain and Misery will be looking to cause Firing Line just that when he attempts to rebound from his 7^th place finish in the San Felipe. He returns to Henry Dominguez’s barn after being saddled by Richard Mandella in his last two starts. If the San Felipe was just an off day for Pain and Misery, then the gelding should be part of the exotics.

DIRT MONSTER (Line of David - Coqui, by Fusaichi Pegasus) tries hard. He was beaten 2 ½ lengths by Where’s the Moon in Mine That Bird Derby, and after a strong stretch battle was nosed out for second place.  His unraced dam is a half sister to the stakes veteran Voodoo and his second dam Slide Show was a stakes winner and multiple stakes placed at 1 1/16 miles. This monster is more like a dust devil.  He likes to be in the fray from the outset, but his wide post and extra distance may be too much. Longshot chance

Dirt Monster—While he has not been a win monster, Dirt Monster has been pretty good on the dirt. He’s never finished worse than 3^rd in his career, but I imagine that will change against this group. He did run a good race while finishing 3^rd in the Mine That Bird Derby behind Where’s the Moon, but he weakened late, something he cannot afford to do in this spot. Pass.