Handicapping the San Vicente Stakes

LORD NELSON—Highly touted for trainer Bob Baffert, Lord Nelson has so far fell a bit short of expectations. Sure he has two wins from 4 lifetime starts, but both times he stepped into graded stakes company, he finished out of the top 3. Whether it was the company or the distance remains to be seen as the San Vicente will be the son of Pulpit’s first graded stakes try in a sprint. Contender.

LORD NELSON (Pulpit - African Jade, by Seeking the Gold) had an excuse in the KY Jockey Club and four months ago, finished a distant fourth in the Frontrunner Stakes (G-1) behind the top three California colts American Pharoah, Calculator and eventual Breeders’ Cup Juvenile champ Texas Red. As Ashley stated, this is a softer field and the Baffert trainee is speed on the rail. Interesting jock switch to Bejarano, who has 28 wins this meet. Contender.

 

SERBIAN SYCLONE—By Wildcat Heir, Serbian Syclone faced buzzsaw Dortmund in his first outing and ended up finishing 8^th, beaten by 13 lengths. Since then, the Peter Miller trainee has made the lead, dictated his own terms and visited the winner’s circle in his subsequent 2 starts. He’s likely to have competition for the lead, a fact that could see him finish similarly to his debut. Consider for exotics.

SERBIAN SYCLONE (Wildcat Heir - Exquisite Beauty, by Bertrando) has plenty of speed and he ain’t afraid to show it. He’s ready for the next step up and could be the fastest out of the gate.  His dam is a full sister to California Champion Sprinter IDIOT PROOF.  I see a speed/fade type if Jazzy Josh and Sir Samson press.  Exotics Contender.

 

JAZZY JOSH—Also a speedster, Jazzy Josh has just one loss in three starts, and that loss was just by a nose and came at the hooves of fellow San Vicente entrant Bench Warrant. The question here is whether or not he can handle traditional dirt as all of his starts have thus far either come on the cushion tracks at Del Mar and Golden Gate or the Santa Anita turf. Pass.

JAZZY JOSH (Kantharos - Lady Jazz, by Kentucky Jazz) is a nose shy of being undefeated in three starts.  As Ashley noted, he gets to strut his stuff on the dirt for the first time.  Kantharos’ offspring are best over the dirt and the under-rated sire’s offspring are strictly sprinters. This colt has a pedigree you don’t see every day. His dam is the daughter of two half siblings.  His dam’s sire and dam (My Dancing Lady) are half siblings and both of their sires are sons of Northern Dancer.  My Dancing Lady and Kentucky Jazz are out of the blue hen mare Tinnitus.  My Dancing Lady and her half brother Kentucky Jazz are half siblings to Champion Sprinter Groovy as well to the dam of Champion Juvenile Boston Harbor. Jazzy Josh should handle the switch to dirt just fine, but he’s an optional claimer going out for a new barn. Pass.

 

TEXAS RED—“Two roads diverged in a wood, and I—/ I took the one less traveled by,/ And that has made all the difference.” I could not state better than Robert Frost what Texas Red’s first couple of 2015 races will entail. Since the point system was implemented a couple of years back, the San Vicente has not held much significance on the Derby trail due to it not being worth any points. Trainer Keith Desormeaux chose to use this 7 furlong spot as a stepping stone to the Risen Star, which is on the Derby trail but not necessarily as lucrative as other points races. It might have taken the handsome son of Afleet Alex a few times to break his maiden, but since becoming a winner, the colt has done little wrong. The 7 furlong distance may be a bit short for the colt, but if the three speedsters keep things honest or better on the front end, Texas Red’s late run could end up getting the job done. The thing to remember here is that while a win is desired, this is not the goal. Top contender.  

TEXAS RED (Afleet Alex - Ramatuelle (CHI), by Jeune Homme) is obviously the big favorite here and has Ashley waxing poetical.  He should get a good pace up front to set up his late run. As Ashly pointed out, this is one step towards the goal.  Many expect Texas Red to win here. So do we.   Read Texas Red’s pedigree profile. Contender.

 

PUNCTUATE— SCRATCHED

PUNCTUATE – The race lost a bit of luster with the late scratch of this colt.  Trainer Bob Baffert stated that the colt was cast in his stall, so will miss the San Vicente.  However, this minor setback won’t deter  the colt’s  training.  

MAGIC TASTE— SCRATCHED

MAGIC TASTE – Scratched. Hopefully to be pointed to a more suitable spot.

 

BENCH WARRANT—A chestnut son of Street Boss, Bench Warrant has performed well in sprints. His one try past a mile was also his only attempt in graded stakes company. While he ran 4^th in the G1 Los Alamitos Futurity, he was 8 ½ lengths behind the top 3, who were separated by less than a neck. That was also his one and only attempt on dirt. Trainer John Sadler does not boast good stats when it comes to transferring runners from turf to dirt, and I honestly don’t see this one being a factor. Pass.

BENCH WARRANT (Street Boss - Ola Docura, by Meadowlake) gets another chance over the dirt. At first glance, Bench Warrant has a sprinter’s pedigree. However, Street Boss’ offspring win up to 1 1/8 miles.  The most notable being Danza, the Arkansas Derby hero.  Bench Warrant’s dam won her maiden at 1 1/16 miles over the lawn as well as the one mile Canada Day Stakes over the dirt.  His third dam is a Brazilian Group 1 winner at 1 ½ miles over the turf.  Bench Warrant deserves another shot over the dirt, and Sadler won this race last year with Kobe’s Back, who was tenth in his previous start. Contender.

 

SIR SAMSON—By Smart Strike, Sir Samson debuted in the same race as Serbian Syclone, the 5^th race at Santa Anita on November 2, 2014. Like that one, he was well beaten by winner Dortmund but finished significantly further back…75 lengths back to be exact while being pulled up and walked off. He returned a winner at Los Alamitos in his next start, getting the lead and slowing things down a bit compared to his prior start. I’m really not sure what to do with this one, but I’m inclined to pass.

SIR SAMSON (Smart Strike - Sweet August Moon, by Malibu Moon) Well, Ashley, I’m not sure what to do with him either. By the looks of Sir Sampson’s first race, speed and abrupt stop, he may have suffered a trapped epiglottis or other breathing issue. Sir Sampson obviously suffered no ill effects by the time his second race rolled around and he’s been breezing well since then.  Love his pedigree for distance.  Sir Samson is the first foal borne of his dam. She was a multiple graded stakes winner, earing almost $500K in her career, whose accomplishments include a victory in the A Gleam Handicap (G-2) at seven furlongs.  Contender.