Handicapping the Holy Bull Stakes

A wide-open field of ten colts are set to contest the first of three Florida two-turn prep races for this year’s Triple Crown Trail in Saturday’s Holy Bull Stakes at Gulfstream Park. Since 2000, only two colts who have hit the board in the Holy Bull did the same in the Kentucky Derby -- Barbaro in 2006 and Closing Argument (2^nd) in 2005. Four favorites have won the Holy Bull. The last one was last year’s Holy Bull hero, Caro Prince. All of the colts in the 1 1/16 mile contest are coming out of races at a mile or farther, so distance won’t be an issue. 

 

 

Like last year’s Holy Bull winner, FROSTED  (Tapit - Fast Cookie, by Deputy Minister) exits a tough luck second place in the Remsen after going widest of all throughout much of the race. Frosted’s dam is a multiple stakes winning miler and also a half sister to Champion Juvenile and well-regarded freshman sire Midshipman. His second dam Fleet Lady is a multiple graded stakes winning miler. Frosted is the class of the field and we already know he can get the distance. Trainer Kiaran McLaughlin won last year’s Holy Bull with the favorite Cairo Prince, whose previous start was a second place finish in the Remsen.

 

 

UPSTART (Flatter - Party Silks, by Touch Gold) After two victories, Upstart finished second in the Champagne Stakes to Daredevil, then he was nosed out for second in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile by Carpe Diem, while Daredevil finished last. Not bad for Upstart’s first four starts.  By Flatter, the sire of two-time Jockey Club Gold Cup hero Flat Out, Upstart is out of a daughter of a Belmont Stakes winner. Upstart has the pedigree to improve as a three year old. His unraced dam is a half to Grade 2 winning veteran Josh’s Madelyn. Upstart’s second and third dams own blacktype. Upstart recorded a 106 Bris speed figure in the Funny Cide Stakes, which was the highest of 2014. He’ll be breaking from post 8. Not an insurmountable task, but he’ll have to go wide into the first turn and may get bumped around.

 

 

BLUEGRASS SINGER (Bluegrass Cat - Aguilera, by Unbridled's Song) has hit the board in six of his seven career starts, including three for four at Gulfstream.  His victory in the one mile Mucho Macho Man Stakes proved how fast this colt really is.  He got his first quarter in :23, then laid down a sizzling :21.88, getting the half in :44.98.  The colt had every right to start backing up, but he continued on getting six panels in 1:09.39 and opened up on the exhausted field, stopping the timer in 1:35.83. There’s little blacktype in Bluegrass Singer’s first two generations.  His first and second dams were unraced. His dam is a full sister to Trendy Lady, a G-3 placed runner. His third dam Klassy Kim is a G-1 winning stakes veteran, but she failed to pass her class to her offspring. Bluegrass Singer has earned two consecutive double digit speed figures, likes the track and will be wining it on the front end. The minor concern is that Bluegrass Singer failed to switch leads in his last few starts. He is cross-entered in the Hutcheson Stakes but is likely to run in the Holy Bull.

 

 

FRAMMENTO (Midshipman - Ginger Bay, by Golden Missile) couldn’t catch Bluegrass Singer in an allowance race at Gulfstream in December, but he did make up a few lengths. It’s tough to make up ground on a leader who has open lengths, but Frammento made up three lengths. Frammento’s dam won a listed sprint, and owns the only blacktype in three generations. Trainer Nick Zito is well acquainted with the Holy Bull Stakes. His Dialed In set the current stakes record in 2011 and Zito earned back-to-back victories in 1994 – 1995 with eventual Kentucky Derby winner Go For Gin and Suave Prospect. Breaking from post 7, Frammento should get a decent stalking trip and be right there should the speed tire.

 

 

 

KEEN ICE (Curlin - Medomak, by Awesome Again) also exits the Remsen Stakes, where he finished a distant third, eight ½ lengths behind the top pair. Keen Ice’s dam is a half sister to the G-3 winning miler Coal Play. This is the distaff family of Grade 1 winners Serra Lake, Somali Lemonade, Verrazano, plus multiple graded winners Hungry Island and Al Khali. Keen Ice has the pedigree to run all day but his stalking nature will be a disadvantage over the speed-favoring Gulfstream track. 

 

 

Mentioned in last year’s Kiddie List way back in June, HIGH NOON RIDER (Distorted Humor - Modesty Blaise, by A.P. Indy)  was third in the Remington Springboard Mile after dueling three-wide much of the race over a muddy track.  This colt has the pedigree of a Classic winner.  He’s a half to French stakes winner POUPEE FLASH (Elusive Quality).  Their dam is a ¾ sister to Atto Mile (CAN G-1) winner GOOD JOURNEY and a half to multiple grade 1 winner and sire ALDEBARAN, two-time winner of the Met Mile. The second dam CHIMES OF FREEDOM is a multiple ENG-Gr.1 winner andHigh Noon Rider’s third dam is the Irish G-1 winner and blue hen AVIANCE. High Noon Rider traces back to the amazing producer and blue hen BEST IN SHOW.  High Noon Rider has fired two bullets in his last three works and should be on his toes for the Holy Bull.

 

 

Also mentioned on the Kiddie List, FIRST DOWN (Street Sense - Storm Lily, by Storm Cat)   showed promise in his debut, beating Frosted by ¾ length. In his second start, First Down was no match for Blofeld, finishing ten lengths behind in the Nashua. First Down is a half brother to the English juvenile stakes placed runner Gold City (Pivotal).  Storm Lily is a half sister to a G-3 stakes placed turf sprinter.  The second dam CRIMPLENE won theIrish One Thousand Guineas (Ire-G1), Coronation Stakes (Eng-G1) and Nassau Stakes (Eng-G1). First Down gets first time Lasix, but is drawn outside.  He could possibly hit the board, as after only two races, First Down is an unknown quantity. If he doesn’t fire in the Holy Bull, a switch to the lawn could be in his future.

 

 

DECISION DAY (Macho Uno - Cry of the Wild, by Unbridled's Song) won or placed in all three of his starts at Woodbine, including a head victory in the restricted 1 1/8 mile Coronation Futurity. There’s little blacktype in Decision Day’s first two distaff generations, although his second dam won the Rare Treat (G-3) at 1 1/8 miles.  Decision Day is stuck in the far outside post, guaranteeing that he’ll have to go widest of all on the first turn. He’s shown that he can sit off of the pace, which is a plus in his factor. I don’t expect that he’ll have any problem racing on the dirt and his speed figures aren’t too bad.  If the pace up front gets too hot, Decision Day could find himself hitting the board.

 

 

 

DOM THE BOMB (Bring the Heat - Richiesgirlgotgame, by Five Star Day) has won three of his four lifetime starts, all in state-bred races. The Illinois-bred will be taking a huge jump in class in the Holy Bull. Dom the Bomb’s final times haven’t been that spectacular, however he did flash early speed at Keeneland last year, so he’s capable of staying with the leaders, at least early in the race.  Dom the Bomb has a sprinter/miler oriented pedigree. There’s little blacktype in his female family, although his dam hit the board in eight of ten starts and is a stakes placed sprinter.  The sprint veteran Attila Storm is part of this family.  Given his outside post and forward running style, I suspect Dom the Bomb will be early speed/fade. Dom the Bomb is also cross-entered in the Hutcheson Stakes.

 

 

JUAN AND BINA (Indian Charlie - Caressing, by Honour and Glory) was left in the dust in the Mucho Macho Man stakes after trying to run with Bluegrass Singer in the first quarter. Previously, Juan and Bina was beaten soundly in the Smooth Air Stakes at Gulfstream West (a/k/a Calder).  He’s is a half brother to Gold Hawk (Empire Maker), who was third in last year’s LeComte Stakes.  The over-priced offspring of Champion Two Year Old Filly Caressing haven’t lived up to their breeding.  Perhaps Juan and Bina would benefit from a change in running style, especially since he’ll be forced wide in the Holy Bull.

 

 

 

Track bias:  Pace setters/pressers win 75% of the races held at 1 1/16 miles.  Due to the track configuration, the starting gate is about ten strides from the first turn, so anybody in post 8+ are at a disadvantage. Horses that have a previous race over the track do well in the Holy Bull.

 

Plenty of speed in here with Bluegrass Singer, Dom the Bomb, Juan and Bina, Frosted and Decision Day.  In last three editions of the Holy Bull, the eventual winner sat in fourth place or better.