Handicapping the Black-Eyed Susan

ASHLEY

LAURIE

DANESSA DELUXE — Does her best running in the stretch. She’s not a deep closer by any means, but she does like to come from just off the pace. She’s ran well in stakes company but has not yet had that breakthrough win. Danessa Deluxe will retain jockey John Velazquez, who rode her to a close 3^rd place finish in the G2 Gulfstream Park Oaks back in March. Use for exotics.

DANESSA DELUXE (Summer Bird - Belle's Home, by Came Home) made a good effort to get up for third in the Gulfstream Oaks over a speed favoring track.  The extra distance should suit this daughter of Belmont Stakes winner Summer Bird. His offspring should improve from their three year old year and onwards.  Danessa Deluxe  is a half sister to the multiple stakes winning sprinter Belleofthebeach.  Danessa Deluxe may appreciate the extra distance.  Contender.

PURE — I’m quite intrigued by this filly. Looking over her past performances, it appears that Pure presented quite the conundrum for trainer James Cassidy. Her first couple of races were on the polytrack at Del Mar, and she never got involved. Switched to dirt for her third start, Pure showed vast improvement, finishing 2^nd, albeit a distant second. Cassidy then tried her on the turf, where she finished 7^th in a blanket finish. Back to the dirt for her last 3 starts, Cassidy continued to fiddle with the filly, changing her run style from a one run type to a front-running type. Paired with the dirt, the switch in run style seemed to do the trick. She finally got her first win in her last start, so this is quite a step up for the Quality Road filly. As the speed closest to the inside, she will have first shot at setting the pace but could encounter pressure from Devine Aida to her outside. Contender.

PURE (Quality Road - Banjo Lesson, by Langfuhr) needed seven starts to finally win against maidens. As Ashley said, Cassidy switched this filly’s running style and was rewarded with a flawless victory last time out.  Quality Road’s offspring are distance challenged. Only two of his babies have won at the maiden/allowance/stake level. Pure’s damsire Langfuhr and second damsire Valiant Nature, a grandson of Ribot, may add some stamina to the filly’s pedigree. Pure’s dam is a half sister to the multiple stakes winner Quindici Man, a winner up to 1 1/8 miles, plus she’s a half to the graded stakes placed veteran Spurrier, who, as a three year old, was third in the Barbaro Stakes.  Pure’s high last out speed figure in her first victory may signal a slight regression here, against more accomplished foes.  Pure hasn’t broken sharply in previous races, and I think she’ll sit directly behind the speed on the rail. Pure hit a career high speed figure in her last race and she could regress slightly off of that effort.  Exotics play.

AHH CHOCOLATE — Undefeated in 2 career starts, Ahh Chocolate gets a shot at the big girls on Preakness weekend. She was not a runaway winner in either of her starts, likely because she likes to come from off the pace. She could have some say in this, but I’m not sure that I trust her to remain undefeated. Consider for exotics.

AHH CHOCOLATE (Candy Ride (ARG) - Ahh, by Saint Liam) is undefeated in two starts.  By track record setting Candy Ride and with champions Saint Liam and Deputy Minister on her distaff side, Ahh Chocolate should find her sweet spot at the Black-Eyed Susan distance.  Her dam is a half sister to the three-time Arlington Handicap (G-3) winning veteran Rahystrada and to the precocious juvenile stakes winner Lone Star Sky. Ahh Chocolate’s conservative trainer Neil Howard is 0-9 with stakes horses, but Ahh Chocolate deserves a shot in here.  Who doesn’t love chocolate?  Exotics play.

GYPSY JUDY — By Kitalpha, Gypsy Judy is a local runner having made all of her career starts at Laurel. She owns a minor stakes win, but winning a stake at Laurel is a far cry from what she’ll face in this spot. Facing such a class test, I believe I’ll pass.

GYPSY JUDY (Kitalpha - Noel, by Stormy Atlantic) is the local filly taking on the invaders. She went back-to-back in victories before a third place finish in the mud last time out. I’m tossing that race, as her pedigree isn’t all that great for mud and she didn’t like getting her hooves dirty. Gypsy Judy is by Kingmambo’s full brother out of a mare by a stakes winning sprinter. Gypsy Judy’s half brother Xmas Sky (Sky Classic) is a solid allowance type who has won at 1 1/8 miles over the lawn. That being said, a class and distance jump after almost a couple of months off is a tough task for any horse.  Gypsy Judy is also entered in the Hilltop Stakes over the lawn, which appears to be a better fit for her. I’m with Ashley on this one. Pass.

INCLUDE BETTY — Winner of the G3 Fantasy Stakes at Oaklawn off long odds, Include Betty is a deep closer. She encountered trouble in the Kentucky Oaks inside the final 1/8^th, but I do not think her getting blocked and steadied altered her finish too much. No one was catching Lovely Maria, least of all a filly closing from the back of the field and encountering traffic along the way. With an easier trip in the stretch and some pace to run out, she could be dangerous.

INCLUDE BETTY (Include - Betty's Solutions, by Eltish) had to steady at the eighth pole in the Kentucky Oaks. No, she wasn’t going to catch the top three, but she could have had a better placing. Include Betty has zero early speed band has demonstrated a pretty good late kick against moderate fractions. She’s also the only filly in the field who has attempted 1 1/8 miles.  However, the track plays against deep closers.  I think she can spoil somebody’s exotics. Contender.

SWEETGRASS — Winner of her last two, Sweetgrass has never been worse than 3^rd thus far in her career. Another that likes to come from off the pace, this filly has shown that she can win on a fast track or a sloppy track. She gets a jockey upgrade in Julien Leparoux, but I do not think that will make up for the fact that she is being asked to a quarter mile further than she did in her last race. Pass.

SWEETGRASS (Street Sense - Mondenschein, by Brahms) has a high/low speed figure cycle going on and she’s coming up to a low one. As Ashley stated, the stretch out is a bit of a jump for this filly, but she’s not the only one in the field who has to contend with that.  Sweetgrass’ pedigree indicates that she’ll handle 1 1/8 miles and she has a decent fast/slow work cycle. Leparoux is smart enough to keep her a little closer to the pace and this filly has the highest late pace speed figure in the race.  Contender.

DEVINE AIDA —  After reeling off four straight victories, Devine Aida finished an uncharacteristic 4^th, beaten 8 lengths, in the Gulfstream Park Oaks. She has wins on the lawn, fast dirt and sloppy dirt but was stepping up in class when running in the GP Oaks. With regular jockey Jesus Rios in the irons, Devine Aida will go after the early lead from her outside post and will likely only encounter resistance from Pure in obtaining it. If left alone on an uncontested lead, Devine Aida will have every chance to steal the Black-Eyed Susan on the front-end. Contender.

DEVINE AIDA (Unbridled's Song - Passion, by Came Home) likes to take it to them early. If she’s not within 1 ½ lengths of the pace, she doesn’t win. The pretty gray filly didn’t have an excuse in the Gulfstream Oaks, although I suspect that she isn’t as good on dirt as she is on turf.  Other than outclassing maidens last year, Devine Aida’s victories have been over the turf or mud.  Her dam is a G-3 winning turf sprinter and a half sister to Hollywood Oaks heroine Kumari Continent. I don’t think Pure will be Devine Adia’s company on the front end, but Luminance has the speed to run with her.  Pace setters in the Black-Eyed Susan normally don’t fare well.  Pass.

LUMINANCE — Finished 2^nd to Stellar Wind in the Santa Anita Oaks in her last start and had been undefeated prior to that. As the class of the field, she will certainly be the one to beat. She has been training at Churchill for about a month now and has had plenty of time to acclimate to the different weather and time zone. Contender.

LUMINANCE (Tale of the Cat - Siren Serenade, by Unbridled's Song) was totally outclassed by Stellar Wind in the Santa Anita Oaks after dueling early. Luminance was mentioned in last June’s Kiddie List. Her dam is a ¾ sister to Remsen Stakes winner Saarland and a half to BC Juvie Turf (G-1) winner George Vancouver.  Second dam is Multiple Grade 1 winner Versailles Treaty.  Luminance has the pedigree and racing class to win this, but her front running ways may dull her stretch drive. Maybe she can hold on for a piece. Exotics.

KEEN PAULINE — Has just her maiden win to her name in terms of victories and was beaten by weaker last out. I don’t think this is a good spot for her and will pass.

KEEN PAULINE (Pulpit - Grand Pauline, by Two Punch) was beaten by almost nine lengths in her combined last three starts by optional claimers.  Most of her half siblings won only once in multiple starts and so far, this immediate family isn’t living up to their breeding. I’m with Ashley on this one. Pass.