Head to Head: Handicapping the 2018 Holy Bull Stakes

Ashley

Laurie

Enticed — Bred and owned by Godolphin, who also campaigned his dam It’s Tricky, Enticed is bred to be a good one. I thought he showed incredible poise in the Kentucky Jockey Club while racing in tight quarters. Once clear, he was incredibly game, battling Tiz Mischief to the wire and winning the photo. One to watch.

Enticed — As Ashley mentioned, Enticed is a Godolphin Stables homebred. His pedigree is perfect for classic distances. Enticed worked in company on Jan. 12 and 20. Both times he sat off his workmate, moved to them when asked, and had his nose in front at the wire. Joel Rosario can park the colt directly behind the pace and make his move on the turn. I don’t think his talent puts him in the running, but he may not be cranked up to win. 

Free Drop Billy — One of four trained by Romans, Free Drop Billy enters off a career-worst effort in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. Maybe it was the Del Mar track, which certainly did Arrogate no favors, or maybe it was shipping West. Regardless, now back on the East Coast and off a layoff, Free Drop Billy looks ready to once again put his best hoof forward. He fired a bullet in his last work and has previously shown that he belongs with the best of his crop. Romans has no excuse for his last effort and has drawn a line through it. Contender.

Free Drop Billy — hails from an immediate family of long-winded turf routers, although his second dam offers sprinter speed. Free Drop Billy was lightly urged in his second-to-last work, and the large, heavy Chestnut appears to be rounding into form. If he runs, I don’t see him winning, but would use underneath.   

Master Manipulator — In his last start, the Gulfstream track came up sloppy, and with jockey Jose Ortiz up for the first time, the colt went to the lead and set the pace while trying two turns for the first time. So which of those factors caused his improvement? Your guess is as good as mine. But two of those variables will remain in place for the Holy Bull, giving the colt a good chance to continue improving. A half to multiple graded stakes winner Curalina, this one could be good.

Master Manipulator — could be a nice one, down the road. At this time of year, the babies are improving rapidly. But Master Manipulator will vie with other early speed types, and he’ll need a big jump forward to be a serious contender. Trainer Eric Guillot’s 0-14 record with the-maiden-to-stakes angle isn’t inspiring. Pass.

Audible — His first two starts came against fellow New York-breds. He won at second asking, and then in his third start, he ran away with the victory in open company. That one-mile event was scheduled for the turf, but it came off due to the weather and was contested on the main track instead. This will be a step up in class, but Pletcher knows how to get them ready early in the season.

Audible — He hasn’t beaten much, and looked OK doing it. His pedigree is sprinter/miler speed and his dam’s multiple stakes-winning half-sister bore multiple graded stakes placed Governor Malibu. Audible breezed with Sonic Mule on January 13 and stayed with the older horse, which is a good sign. As Ashley said, Pletcher knows how to get them ready.

Bandito — Another Romans trainee, Bandito has not won on a fast track. His last race, the Grade 2 Remsen, was just awful. After setting the early pace, the son of Creative Cause couldn’t backpedal fast enough. He ended up 10th, beaten by 43 3/4 lengths that day. If the track comes up sloppy, I will take a shot for a price. Otherwise, no thank you.

Bandito — He's the horse entered here that, when you look at the PPs, you ask, "Why?" A sudden stop in the Remsen makes me think “a bleeder or flipped palate.” He didn’t look comfortable in a subsequent breeze, and very high knee action suggests he may prefer turf. If he runs and wins, will people be humming the “Frito Bandito” song? Pass. 

Hollywood Star — Prior to the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, Hollywood Star had never been worse than second. He finished sixth that day, steadily improving from the back of the field. That type of running style does not typically translate well at Gulfstream, but if he can lay closer to the pace, he stands a better chance of making his presence known.

Hollywood Star — A full brother to stakes-winning sprinter Miss Hollywood, he’s a beautiful mover with a fabulous pedigree and has faced some nice horses, but he seems to be the type that just misses. This is a good starting point for the year, and he could be competitive but is expected to scratch.

Tiz Mischief — A close second in the Kentucky Jockey Club off a maiden winner, Tiz Mischief is the fourth and final Dale Romans entrant. He has stepped up in class with each start and improved with each step forward. I’m very interested to watch the continuing development on this one and think he could be a threat here. Romans says he is doing great and has moved forward.

Tiz Mischief — He has a great work pattern, and I agree, Ashley, he’s certainly a threat here. He’s a big, powerful colt and showed plenty of fight in the Kentucky Jockey Club. His bullet breeze on January 20 was done on a loose rein, and he galloped out easily. He has one of the best work patterns in the field and is a main contender.

Pony Up — A homebred for Calumet Farm, Pony Up debuted on dirt but has since raced exclusively on turf. He has the highest last race speed figure in the field, but that came on the lawn while finishing second in the Kitten’s Joy Stakes. He actually ran well on the dirt, but that speed figure on the turf. Pletcher does have a good record when transferring charges from turf to dirt, but personally, I don’t want to pony up my money here.

Pony Up — He flashed strong late kicks in two stakes over the dirt. He recorded the fastest Trackus figures in both starts. The turf/dirt switch doesn’t concern me. Pletcher’s pony placed on dirt, his half-brother S’Maverlous won the New Orleans (G2) on dirt. And have you seen Gulfstream’s worn-out turf course? Worth consideration.

Tip Sheet — An inconsistent sort, Tip Sheet has raced nearly exclusively at Gulfstream Park. His best race was his last one, in which he earned a 90 Equibase speed figure. I doubt that had anything to do with him, though, as the top two were so good that day. Trainer Stanley Gold looks to be grasping at straws.

Tip Sheet — He stumbled at the start of his last race and made a run to place third, 6 1/4 lengths behind Mississippi. Tip Sheet tries hard, and there’s some quality in his family, but he appears a cut below here. He’s a local boy and worth a saver bet tossing him into the bottom of your super. Note that Jaramillo stays with him instead of Aequor.

Aequor — He has the pedigree to improve with maturity and stretch out. His dam was second to Unrivaled Belle in the 1 1/4-mile Delaware ‘Cap (G2). That being said, I agree with Ashley that  Aequor will likely contest the pace from the outside and backing up in the stretch.

Mississippi — Despite the bad post draw, Mississippi could have been the biggest win threat in the field. Both he and Noble Indy were highly regarded when they faced each other last out. Noble Indy prevailed that day but is not in this field. Mississippi holds the highest last (dirt) race speed figure.

Mississippi — He is bred on the same lines as American Pharoah and from a stakes-winning distaff line. The recent Optional Claimer was a decent effort to set up for the Holy Bull. Despite the impending scratch, he's still one to watch coming out of Sunday's allowance feature.

Ashley

Laurie

#1 Enticed (3-1)

#7 Tiz Mischief (4-1)

#3 Master Manipulator (20-1)

#4 Audible (6-1)

#7 Tiz Mischief (4-1)

#1 Enticed (3-1)

#2 Free Drop Billy (6-1)

#8 Pony Up (8-1)