Handicapping the 2017 Risen Star Stakes

Ashley

Laurie

Girvin—With his finishing a good second on the turf in his last race, Girvin is an interesting entrant. He broke his maiden on the dirt, and trainer Joe Sharp must have liked his debut better than his last start since he’s giving him a chance on the Derby trail. However, I’m not sure I like him enough to give him a shot here.

Girvin (Tale of Ekati - Catch the Moon, by Malibu Moon) showed talent on dirt and turf. There’s quality in his distaff line, he’s a half brother to Iroquois S. winner Cocked And Loaded. That being said, Girvin appears out of his depth against more experienced foes. Pass.

Untrapped—This Steve Asmussen trained son of Trappe Shot has managed to find some sort of trouble in each of his three career starts. He has the second highest last race speed figure, earning a 99 for his runner-up finish in last month’s LeComte, the prep for the Risen Star. Only the LeComte winner and fellow Risen Star entrant Guest Suite has a higher last race figure. Untrapped also earned a 99 for his maiden victory two starts back. If he can stay out of trouble, Untrapped could improve off his last race.

Untrapped (Trappe Shot - Exit Three, by Giant's Causeway) was stuck on the rail behind horses in the LeComte before switching to the outside. He made up some ground, but nobody was moving that fast at the end. I like him a lot and won’t be surprised to see him win it, but he was fortunate to get untrapped in the LeComte and I envision another rail trip. Yes, he’s a legit contender, but I’m looking elsewhere.

Local Hero—A son of Hard Spun, Local Hero broke his maiden in his third start while stretching out and shipping into Fair Grounds. A speedy type, it looks like the track and a drop in class did the trick for this colt. A couple more months to mature and learn, plus a jockey change to Florent Geroux probably helped as well. With all the other speed to the outside, maybe Local Hero can get an uncontested lead and steal it on the front end. Exotics.

Local Hero (Hard Spun - Liam's Dream, by Saint Liam) is jumping from last out maiden winner into graded stakes company. We’ve seen this before and the results are seldom favorable. However, Local Hero showed his fondness for the local track. Or, was it as Ashley indicated, a drop in class? Pace setters rarely fare well in the Risen Star, but I’m inclined to include him in the top four.

Arklow—Still a maiden, Arklow enters this contest off a close 4^th in last month’s LeComte. His first two races at Churchill Downs were nothing to write home about, but his last two efforts at the Fair Grounds have been solid. I don’t think he has what it takes to land in the superfecta here, though. Pass.

Arklow (Arch - Unbridled Empire, by Empire Maker) is still a maiden. He’s a later maturing type with a pedigree that screams distance – on turf. His dam is half to DelMar Deb. Heroine Cindy’s Hero and to multiple graded turf router Fourty Niner’s Son. Does Arklow have any speed or does he just pass tired horses? Exotics.

Shareholder Value—Like Untrapped, Shareholder Value nearly always seems to land in trouble. So far, this Uncle Mo colt has not been able to hold his own in graded stakes company, though he did post a career best 97 speed figure in the LeComte while finishing 5^th, beaten by just 2 ¼-lengths. A similar effort beats many of these rivals, but I’m not holding my breath.

Shareholder Value (Uncle Mo - Rylee's Song, by Unbridled's Song) Is this year’s trouble horse. His running lines look like a rush-hour drive home. He’s been bumped, swerved, bothered, and gone wide in his last three starts. Shareholder Value is very well bred. By a leading sire, the bay colt’s dam is a half to multiple GSW sprinter Capt. Candyman Can. Shareholder Value was running late at the end of the LeComte, but Bridgmohan jumps off to ride Arklow. Shareholder Value isn’t blue chip stock in my portfolio.

Guest Suite—While Untrapped was trapped on the rail and then behind a wall of horses coming into the stretch in the LeComte, Guest Suite was enjoying a comfortable trip to his outside. He then got the jump on Untrapped and was part of the wall that prevented that rival from getting his momentum going sooner in the stretch run. Trainer Neil Howard seems to have Guest Suite cranked up and ready to go. His last work was a bullet 5 furlongs in :59.40 on Valentine’s Day. Already a winner at Fair Grounds, Guest Suite is certainly a win contender here.

Guest Suite (Quality Road - Guest House, by Ghostzapper) has shown speed figure improvement in each start. He has the right running style for the Risen Star and as the LeComte hero, is the one to beat. The well-bred colt’s third dam is the blue hen Weekend Surprise, dam of A.P. Indy and Summer Squall. Trainer Neil Howard & Robby Albarado teamed to win the Risen Star in 2004 with Gradepoint.  Win Contender.

U S Officer —Trained by Danny Pish, U S Officer ships in from Remington where he won the Clever Trevor Stakes and placed 3^rd in the Springboard Mile to close out his juvenile campaign. Last year, Suddenbreakingnews utilized a Clevor Trevor victory and a 2^nd in the Springboard Mile to propel himself to a G3 Southwest win at Oaklawn. He later ran 2^nd in the G1 Arkansas Derby and 5^th in the Kentucky Derby. U S Officer has a similar running style as Suddenbreakingnews, but does not let himself fall as far behind. However, I don’t think U S Officer has the same level of talent that one showed. Pass.

U S Officer (U S Ranger - Lacey Officer, by Officer) beat up on lesser foes at Remington until Cool Arrow invaded and won the Springboard Mile. He’s one of three in the Risen Star with a triple digit pace figure, but distance and class are suspect. Pass.

Cool Arrow —By Into Mischief, Cool Arrow defeated U S Officer while winning the Springboard Mile back in December. He also won the Kip Deville, which is also ran at Remington Park. Last year’s Springboard Mile winner, Discreetness, went on to win Oaklawn’s Smarty Jones Stakes but has not done anything since. I definitely like Cool Arrow better than U S Officer, but I don’t like him enough to bet on him. Pass.

Cool Arrow (Into Mischief - Phoenicia, by Mr Purple) carved out an easy trip with slow fractions in the Springboard Mile. He’s won or placed in five of six starts all on or pressing the pace. Cool Arrow is competitive against lesser foes, but faces a step up in class and must contend with other early speed here. Pass.

Mo Town —Trained by Anthony Dutrow, Mo Town is the favorite for good reason. His speed figures have improved with each start, and he ended his juvenile campaign by winning the G2 Remsen. The final time for the 1 1/8 mile wasn’t impressive, but I, for one, don’t expect quick times for that distance from 2-year olds. It’s only been a couple months since he last faced the starter and his works have been good and steady, so I fully expect Mo Town to pick up where he left off last year.

Mo Town (Uncle Mo - Grazie Mille, by Bernardini) Certainly won’t have distance issues. He’s been breezing brilliantly at Payson Park for Tony Dutrow. Mo Town will try to emulate last year’s Risen Star hero Gun Runner, capturing the race in his first start off of a layoff.  Mo Town has a classy distaff line and could pull it off. But remember, this is a tune-up for bigger and better, so he may need a start. Read his pedigree profile. Win contender.

Takeoff—Trained by Mark Casse, Takeoff was on the pace in the LeComte but was outfinished by Guest Suite and Untrapped. The only race he has won in four career starts was while setting the pace. I do not see him getting the lead here unless Julien Leparoux guns him out of the gate. Florent Geroux, his pilot in his last two starts, hopped off in favor of Local Hero, something I find very telling. Pass.

Takeoff (Arch - Frisk Her, by Officer) had every chance to capture the LeComte, but he got a little tired at the end. It wasn’t a bad effort off a maiden victory. Not a good sign is regular jock Florent Geroux jumping off for last out maiden winner Local Hero.  If he moves forward off the LeComte, with an unpressured lead, Takeoff could stick around to earn a minor award.

Sorry Erik —Based on the West Coast, Sorry Erik has improved since the claim by Big Chief Racing and transfer to trainer Keith Desormeaux. He’s now won 2 straight, but one of those was in a claiming race. His last recorded work was nearly a month ago, and I see nothing to recommend him as a serious contender. Pass.

Sorry Erik (Wilburn - Tiz the Day, by Tiznow) leaves the tough optional claiming ranks of SoCal for graded stakes company in Louisiana. His entry in the Risen Star looks like a chance for the Desormeaux boys to visit home for a little Cajun cookin’. Little chance Erik will take home a trophy, but he might enjoy a Beignet if the Desormeaux’s feel like sharing. Pass.

Horse Fly —By Mineshaft, it took Horse Fly 6 attempts to break his maiden. During that stint, he was ridden by 6 different jockeys though he only raced at 3 different tracks. He comes in off a 3 week turnaround and a good maintenance work, so he should be sharp. However, I’m not impressed. Pass.

Horse Fly (Mineshaft - Raised Right, by Giant's Causeway) visited the winner’s circle on his seventh attempt. He has the pedigree one would expect from a Calumet runner. Horse Fly’s unraced dam is a half sister to stallion Elusive Quality & the French Group winner Rossini. Horse Fly appears up against it, but sometimes ‘ole D. Wayne will pull a fast one. Yes, I’m still hung up over the Oxbow incident.

It’s Your Nickel —The only time It’s Your Nickel crossed the wire first was on the turf. In his last start, he was placed first after the winner was disqualified to last for interference. I reckon trainer Kenny McPeek liked that effort enough that he decided it was worth taking a shot at the Kentucky Derby trail. Maybe James Graham, who was aboard for the first time in It’s Your Nickel’s last start, knows how to get the best out of this colt, but I’m looking elsewhere. If you decide you like him, well, hey, it’s your nickel. Pass.

It's Your Nickel (Dialed In - Bold American, by Quiet American) was hard pressed against optional claimers in his first start of the year. He fought hard through the race and earned the win via a DQ for bumping. It's Your Nickel has a later maturing pedigree, and there’s class in his family. A son of last year’s leading Freshmen Sire,  It's Your Nickel is a half brother to G1 stakes placed Valiant Passion and his stakes winning second dam is a half sister to BC Classic hero Skywalker. The McPeek  trainee should be fit for his second start off the layoff. Distance isn’t so much a concern as the outside post. At 30-1 morning line, why not add him to the bottom of the ticket?

So Conflated —Winner of the California Derby, So Conflated ships in from the West Coast to try his hoof against stiffer competition. The California Derby was his third career start and first victory, but it’s hard to hold his first two races against him. In his debut, he ran third behind American Anthem, and then lost to Dabster by a head in his second career start. Additionally, So Conflated has improved as the distances have increased. However, Golden Gate form rarely transitions well to other tracks in terms of the Road to the Kentucky Derby. So Conflated could be any sort, but I need to see him prove that his race at Golden Gate was no fluke. Play the exotics.

So Conflated (Eskendereya - Donnie's Secret, by Tiger Ridge) has been right there in every start. As Ashley noted, So Conflated was third behind eventual Sham Stakes runner-up American Anthem and won the California Derby. There’s quality in his family; his dam is a full sister to the multiple graded stakes winning sprinter Leah's Secret and both she and another full sister bore stakes winners. As Ashley noted, the Doug O’Neil trainee has pluses and minuses.

Ashley

Laurie

#9  Mo Town (7-2)

#6  Guest Suite (6-1)

#2  Untrapped (10-1)

#9  Mo Town (7-2)

#6  Guest Suite (6-1)

#3  Local Hero (4-1)

#3  Local Hero (4-1)

#13 It's Your Nickel (30-1)