Handicapping the 2017 Florida Derby
Gulfstream Park's $1 million Grade 1 Florida Derby is the culmination of the 2017 Kentucky Derby preps run at the South Florida track.
The extra half furlong between the Fountain of Youth held at 1 1/16 miles and the Florida Derby at 1 1/8 miles doesn’t seem that far, unless you’re a tired racehorse lugging a whipping jockey and his tack to the wire. This year’s Florida Derby field appears evenly divided between horses who belong and those who don’t. Ashley Tamulonis of Coast To Coast and I team up to sort out the colts who can manage the extra distance and become the next Florida Derby winner.
|
Ashley |
Laurie |
|
State of Honor — has not won since breaking his maiden in October, but he has proven to be a pretty tough cookie. Never out of stakes company since then, he’s gone 4: 0-3-1, finishing just behind McCraken and Tapwrit in his last two. He does not land in easier company here, but I think he could surprise. Contender. |
State of Honor (To Honor and Serve - State Cup, by Elusive Quality) has a sprinter/miler pedigree and so far, has failed to carry his pace setting speed past a mile. He has speed from the rail, but will have to contend with Three Rules, and possibly the two Pletcher horses, Always Dreaming and Battalion Runner for the lead. State of Honor tries hard and could hold on for a piece. Exotics. |
|
Talk Logistics — has not been in the same zip code as the winners of the last two Derby preps at Gulfstream Park. I do not see that changing here, though he definitely got a better post draw than Gunnevera and Three Rules. Still, I’ll pass. |
TALK LOGISTICS (High Cotton - Alotofappeal, by Trippi) can be placed anywhere in the race and still finish fourth. He was a zip code away in the Holy Bull and Fountain of Youth. The Eddie Plesa, Jr. trainee has a sprinter/miler pedigree. Pass. |
|
Charlie the Greek— we’ll see if that optional claimer he exited from two starts back ends up being a key race as all three of the top finishers land here. He ran huge that day, finishing second despite losing his footing at the beginning of the race. He posted a career best speed figure that day going the Florida Derby distance, but that 88 won’t win him this race. I really want to like him since my oldest son’s name is Charlie, but I think I have to pass. |
Charlie The Greek (Adios Charlie - Mothra, by Formal Dinner) was all out to hold off Unbridled Holiday by a bare head two races ago at 1 1/8 miles. The fractions set by Always Dreaming were slow enough to read War and Peace and still catch the end of the race. Mikhail Yanakov’s charge won’t get slow fractions this time and Charlie The Greek hasn’t shown the talent to beat optional claimers. Pass. |
|
Always Dreaming — has been favored in all 4 career starts, and while he’s never been out of the trifecta, he has really excelled in his last two when stretching out. Having drawn near the inside, he will get a nice trip as compared to some of the others favored here. If Johnny V. can get him to relax, he’ll be dangerous. Minor placing maybe? |
Always Dreaming (Bodemeister - Above Perfection, by In Excess (IRE)) has a stamina over speed pedigree. He’s a half-brother to the speedy Hot Dixie Chick, winner of the Spinaway (G1). Their dam is a G3 stakes winning sprinter. The Todd Pletcher trainee pulled hard and was rank in his last two breezes and may not relax during the Florida Derby. Can he keep up with faster fractions at 1 1/8 miles? Not if he can’t relax early. Pass. |
|
Quinientos — Why? Just why? He was no threat in the Fountain of Youth, and that extra sixteenth of a mile will do him no favors here. Pass. |
Quinientos (Sky Mesa - Unbridled's Secret, by Unbridled) has a miler pedigree. He was no threat in his first two starts of the year. Can’t see him reversing that form here. Pass. |
|
Coleman Rocky — may have the pedigree to handle 9 furlongs, Laurie, but I don’t think he will do it on this surface. Not only does he like an off track, he also broke his maiden on the turf. As for full brother Poker Player, he was a turf runner himself. Pass. |
Coleman Rocky (Harlan's Holiday - Revel in the Win, by Red Bullet) has the pedigree to handle 9F. He’s a full brother to Bourbon Stakes (G3) winner Poker Player. Coleman Rocky likes an off track, but won’t get one here. Pass. |
|
Unbridled Holiday — only broke his maiden two starts back in state-bred company and comes in off a 3rd place finish to Always Dreaming and Charlie the Greek in an allowance optional claimer. Pass. |
Unbridled Holiday (Harlan's Holiday - Song of Royalty, by Unbridled's Song) has a solid middle-distance pedigree. He’s a half to G3 winner Elusive Lady, who placed in two stakes at 9F. Unbridled Holiday was wide the entire way in his last start against Always Dreaming and made up ground in the stretch. Unbridled Holiday was hard pressed to stay with graded stakes placed Dad’s Princess early in their last breeze. He’ll get a faster pace to chase here and should improve off his last. Contender. |
|
Impressive Edge — has been pretty good for Dale Romans at Gulfstream, but he has been given a tall task of stretching out from 7 furlongs to 9. His best speed figure won’t win, but he could get up for a minor placing. |
Impressive Edge (Harlan's Holiday - Cool Spell, by Grand Slam) has a miler pedigree and could possibly stretch to 1 1/8 miles given the right circumstances. He’s a half-brother to stakes winning turf sprinter/miler Coarsegold and hails from the same distaff line as Unbridled’s Song and California Chrome. Dale Romans’ charge was under pressure late to record 5F in 1:01 and galloped out in 1:13.He makes his two-turn debut in the Florida Derby. He’ll have to go wide from the outside and fitness for the distance may be a question. On a positive note, he showed improvement in his third start. I think he has the talent to hit the board. |
|
Battalion Runner — in this case, Battalion Runner is the “Other Pletcher.” The plan is for him to scratch from the Florida Derby in lieu of either the Arkansas Derby or the Wood Memorial. However, if an audible should be called, I can see this guy being a serious win contender. |
Battalion Runner (Unbridled's Song - Tamboz, by Tapit) has a middle-distance pedigree. He’s half to multiple graded stakes placed miler Oceanwave. Their dam is half to BC Dirt Miler (G1) winner & sire Tapizar. As Ashley mentioned, Battalion Runner is expected to scratch. |
|
Three Rules — did more than I expected in the Fountain of Youth, and could do so here again. However, his post position is against him, especially given his running style. However, he always manages to get a piece of the pie (the BCJ excepting), so that is not out of the question here. Exotics. |
Three Rules (Gone Astray - Joy Rules, by Full Mandate) reminds me of the speedy Rule, who dueled through fast early fractions in the 2010 Florida Derby. He had one speed, and that was fast. Three Rules always tries his best and doesn’t give up willingly. Exotics. |
|
Gunnevera — had he drawn a better post, Gunnevera would definitely be the one to beat here. However, considering the track configuration for 9 furlong races at Gulfstream, things are not looking good for him. However, he has shown he can come from off the pace and win, even at Gulfstream, so maybe I’m not giving him enough credit. |
Gunnevera (Dialed In - Unbridled Rage, by Unbridled) can make a sustained run from the back of the pack. He’ll be stuck wide on the first turn in the Florida Derby, but since he has no early speed, it doesn’t matter. Gunnevera is making his third start of the year and the Fountain of Youth victor is considered the one to beat, despite his far outside post. Read Gunnevera’s Pedigree Profile. |
Track bias: There’s no secret that Gulfstream Park’s dirt track has a strong speed bias. Only two late runners have won the Florida Derby in ten years. Both were helped by 23, 46 and 1:10 type early fractions. The starting gate for the 1 1/8 mile race is within strides of the first turn, so an outside post is the kiss of death for most horses, especially those with speed. Only two colts in the last ten years have won from an outside post.
Final Thoughts:
Laurie: Gunnevera should easily beat this crowd, although the post position and track bias could be his undoing. A fast early pace and no traffic could see the son of 2011’s Florida Derby hero emulating his sire. Gunnevera is the obvious favorite, but the favorite only wins 35% of the time in the Florida Derby. Coleman Rocky and Unbridled Holiday are worth consideration for minor awards. Always Dreaming was rank in his last two works and fought with his rider for much of his last breeze. Always Dreaming does not like to be behind another horse. He’s talented, but his stubborn nature could be his undoing in the Florida Derby. Impressive Edge looked good in the mornings and is worth a look.
Ashley: I really want to play against Gunnevera here, but even his post position is not deterring me much. State of Honor looks dangerous from the rail, and Always Dreaming is already a winner at the Florida Derby distance. Three Rules always shows up to get a piece of the action, and Impressive Edge could be any kind.
SELECTIONS:
|
Ashley: |
Laurie: |
|
State of Honor |
Gunnevera |
|
Gunnevera |
Unbridled Holiday |
|
Always Dreaming |
Impressive Edge |
|
Three Rules |
Three Rules |