Handicapping the 2016 Tampa Bay Derby

Ashley

Laurie

Morning Fire—Posted a 106 speed figure when winning the Pasco Stakes two starts back but was passed by Destin and Rafting to finish 3^rd in the Sam F. Davis in his last start. The only time he has been out of the trifecta was when he was DQ-ed from 2^nd to 7^th in his 3^rd career start due to impeding his rivals. The Sam F. Davis was this colt's first attempt at stretching out, and overall, he did well. The blinkers come off for this spot, so maybe Morning Fire won't be so eager for the lead, but I don't expect that he will be far from it even so. He had a nice bullet breeze on March 4^th to prepare for this spot, and I certainly consider him a contender.

Morning Fire (Friesan Fire - Four Star Morning, by Press Card) had it all his own way on the lead in the Sam Davis, he was just outrun by better horses. Now he faces a deeper field, plus Riker and Outwork may join him on the lead.  Very little blacktype in the distaff line. His dam was a hard-knocking sprinter in the claiming division. Ashley has a point that blinkers off may relax the colt & pointed out a nice pre-race work. I don’t like how he regressed speed-figure wise in his 2^nd off a layoff. Maybe he can hold for 4^th, but there are others I like in here better. Pass.

Rafting—Overcame being bumped at the start of the Sam F. Davis to record a career-high speed figure of 107 while finishing a game 2^nd to Destin last out. The Tampa Bay surface can be tricky, and I tend to give credence to good efforts over the surface. If Rafting runs back to his good performance in the Sam F. Davis, he'll certainly be a contender here.

Rafting  (Tapit - Paiota Falls, by Kris S.) didn’t have as good a trip as Destin in the Sam Davis Stakes. Destin got the jump on him and Rafting had to go wide. Rafting has one of the best pedigrees in the field. His stakes winning dam is a half sister to Dwyer Stakes winner Speightster.  His second dam is a full sister to Champion Dance Smartly and is a half to prominent sire Smart Strike.  Rafting didn’t keep an even course down the stretch in the Sam Davis. Still a little immature, but the talent is there. Trainer Graham Motion captured the 2014 Tampa Bay Derby with long shot Ring Weekend.  Win Contender.

Outwork—Undefeated in two career starts, the Tampa Bay Derby will be Outwork's first attempt at stretching out past 6 furlongs, and this has turned into a pretty tough spot. Uncle Mo babies have been doing surprisingly well stretching out, and trainer Todd Pletcher gets 24% winners when stretching his charges out from a sprint to a route. Together with jockey John Velazquez, Pletcher produces 27% winners. Outwork does have a win at Tampa, but I think I like others better.

Outwork (Uncle Mo - Nonna Mia, by Empire Maker) is following in the hoof prints of 2013 Tampa Bay Derby winner Verrazano. Both entered undefeated after winning their first two starts. Pletcher trained the 2013 & 2015 Tampa Bay Derby winners. Outlook should love the extra distance. His dam won the Frizette (G1) and she’s a half to Holy Bull Stakes hero Cairo Prince. Adding 2.5 furlongs and a new surface is a concern, but hey, it’s Pletcher’s other horse, and could be overlooked for a nice price. Contender.

Economic Model—Ran a good 2^nd to Awesome Banner in the G2 Swale in just his second career race, but he will need to do much better than that here. While trainer Chad Brown does get 32% winners when sending his trainees out from a sprint to a route, I certainly like others better. Pass.

Economic Model (Flatter - Queen of America, by Quiet American) couldn’t catch a loose on the lead Awesome Banner in the Swale. I agree, Ashley, it was a good attempt and he can move forward off of that effort.  If the race sets up like you think, Economic Model will be passing them at the end. He’s a half to G2 turf router Well Monied and multiple stakes winner Jimmy Simms. I think he can hit the board. Exotics contender.

Star Hill—Broke his maiden in his 4^th outing last time out. He posted a career-high 105 speed figure while doing so. He previously attempted 1 1/16 mile in the G3 Iroquois last year but finished 6^th, 13 lengths behind winner Cocked and Loaded. While he improved vastly to become a winner last out, he will need to improve again in order to beat this field. Pass.

Star Hill (Elusive Quality - Padmore, by French Deputy) figured it out in a big way winning his maiden by 7 ¾ lengths.  Followed up with a second-to-last bullet. Nice set up for an allowance race against last out maiden winners, but I agree with Ashley, not here. Pass.

Riker—Has not raced since finishing 6^th in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile on Halloween. That was his first attempt on traditional dirt and his first race outside Woodbine, where he had been undefeated. Though he finished 6^th in the BCJ, he was only beaten by 4 lengths after setting the pace, not a terrible showing for his first dirt start. I want to like Riker here, but the layoff and lack of dirt form concern me. Pass.

Riker (Include - Desviacion, by Unreal Zeal) has been breezing well for new trainer Mark Casse, but as Ashley pointed out, this is Riker’s first off of a long lay-off. Only two colts in the last ten years captured the Tampa Bay Derby after a win or place in the BC Juvenile. There’s some nice blacktype in his female family and Riker is a half to G3 sprinter/miler Cashel Castle. Tough spot to debut. Pass

Destin—Was a convincing winner of the Sam F. Davis in his last outing, earning a 110 speed figure for the effort. That figure is the highest any in the field have posted, so a duplication of his performance in the Davis will win this, too. He's had a couple of nice maintenance breezes since the Davis, and you better believe trainer Todd Pletcher will have him ready to fire. Contender.

Destin (Giant's Causeway - Dream of Summer, by Siberian Summer) won the Sam F. Davis effortlessly. The full brother to Creative Cause ran huge last time out. But was the effort too good?  The last horse to capture the Sam Davis/Tampa Bay Derby was Burning Roma in 2001, and some very nice horses since then have failed. I really like this pretty gray horse and he’s certainly the one to beat. Contender.

Brody's Cause—Off since his 3^rd place finish in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile back in October, Brody's Cause's return to the starting gate is easier than it could have been but a win here is far from guaranteed. I like that all of his career starts have been at a mile or longer, and he has had a work over the Tampa surface. As a Grade 1 winner, Brody's Cause is the class of the field, but I hesitate to like him too much. Nevertheless, he is a contender.

Brody's Cause (Giant's Causeway - Sweet Breanna, by Sahm) has a long, ground-eating stride and should be picking up momentum when the speedier types are staggering. Yes, he could be capable of winning this off of the layoff, but I have to think that this is a prep for bigger and better. He has Derby Qualifying points and an on the board finish will set him up nicely for his next prep. Contender.

Tale Of S'avall—is coming off the longest layoff in the field. While a couple in here haven't raced since the end of October, Tale of S'avall hasn't faced the starter since the beginning of October when he finished 5^th in a sloppy edition of the G1 Champagne. He set the pace that day before tiring to finish 7 1/4-lengths behind winner Greenpointcrusader. He has been training steadily for Barclay Tagg, but based on Tagg's stats for layoffs, I think Tale of S'avall will need this one. Pass.

Tale of S'avall  (Tale of Ekati - S' Avall, by Awesome Again)  has a tough task for his first start since last October.  He’s bred to love classic distances, His second dam is BC Distaff heroine Pleasant Home.  I agree with Ashley, he’ll need a start or two to shake the rust off.  Pass.

Awesome Banner—Wheels back from the G2 Fountain of Youth two weeks ago where he suffered his first career defeat, finishing 5^th, 26 lengths behind winner Mohaymen. The side-swiping he took at the beginning of the FOY likely contributed to his loss, as Awesome Banner tired after setting the pace for 5 furlongs rather than running his competition off their feet like he had in the past. This is his second chance at stretching out, and with a cleaner trip, perhaps he will be able to stay on this time.

Awesome Banner (Awesome of Course - Miranda Stands, by Zamindar) backed out of it fairly early in the FOY. I agree that the colt didn’t run his race. He’ll have speed to his inside and might be used early to duel for the lead.  His half sister Standard Deal is a stakes placed sprinter. He could be the quickest early on, which doesn’t bode well for the end. Maybe he can hang on for a piece.