Handicapping the 2016 San Vicente Stakes

Ashley

Laurie

Nyquist—What is there left to say about Nyquist? He is undefeated and a crowned champion. With no Derby points on the line, the San Vicente should be an easy return spot for the son of Uncle Mo, who has been off since winning the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. There, he was forced to come from off the pace, a new dimension, after being bumped hard leaving the starting gate. If anyone were to be able to beat him at this stage, the San Vicente would be the race in which to do it, as Reddam Racing’s newest star has been off since Halloween. Otherwise, Nyquist is obviously the one to beat.

Nyquist (Uncle Mo - Seeking Gabrielle, by Forestry) I couldn’t agree more, Ashley. Nyquist may not have raced since scaring the BC Juvenile field, but his breeze pattern shows that he’s fit and ready to roll. Uncle Mo’s best son has recorded six consecutive works at five and six furlongs. His pre-race breeze tightened the screws with a swift :59 and change move. Post position one could be a drawback, Nyquist may be forced to go to the lead to avoid being blocked. However, nobody in the field has this colt’s turn of foot. He was an eye blink off of the track record in his debut.  The Champ is undefeated and I don’t expect that to change.

Electrifying—Owned by Kaleem Shah and trained by Bob Baffert, Electrifying was anything but in his debut. After vying for the lead early, he faded badly to finish 12^th and last, 18 ¼-lengths behind the winner. A couple months away and a drop in class saw the Dunkirk colt break his maiden in his second outing and three-year old debut. Thus far, Havana has been Dunkirk’s best performing progeny, and based on Electrifying’s speed figures, I do not see him stepping up into the same class as that one here. Pass.

Electrifying (Dunkirk - Perfectly Quiet, by Quiet American) Baffert has dominated the San Vicente, winning four of the last five editions. Electrifying was the $350K sales topper at last year’s FT Mid-Atlantic Sale. The pretty gray colt may need some time to develop. His dam and siblings were better with maturity. Electrifying’s half sister placed in a couple of stakes as a 4YO.  Only one of three half siblings won as a 2YO. Toss his initial start and you have a colt that did ok last time out. That being said, he’s up against a tough field here and his work pattern isn’t all that, well…electrifying. In 2011, Baffert won the San Vicente with The Factor, who was a last out maiden winner, but he was also the favorite in a very weak field. I see this colt in here for the experience only. Maybe he has the talent to hit the board.

El Charro—An East Coast invader, El Charro will be making his first career start outside the Sunshine State when he takes on this talented field in the San Vicente. Trained by David Jacobson, the son of Put It Back has plenty of experience but likely isn’t quite up to the task of taking on and defeating the top 2 here. He cuts back to 7 furlongs for the first time in 4 starts. I have not been impressed with either his races nor his works, but he could definitely pick up a paycheck here.

El Charro (Put It Back - Fairy Valley, by Dixieland Band) made a nice four-wide move from off of the pace in the Mucho Macho Man Stakes last time out. That isn’t easy to do at GP. He has a nice distaff line. El Charro’s half brother Firespike won the Juvenile Turf Stakes at GPW and their dam is a half to a Queen's Plate winner. Still, I see this colt as a Calder….er…Gulfstream West kinda horse. Pass.

Denman’s Call—Before I get serious here, I just have to say that I love this gelding’s name and it’s tribute, whether intentional or not, to famed race caller Trevor Denman. A recent maiden winner, Denman’s Call will be making his second start of 2016, and incidentally second career start, in deep waters. Trainer Doug O’Neill must think highly of this gelding or think he will get something good out of this experience to deliberately put him in against champion and stablemate Nyquist, so who am I to question that? Since Mario Gutierrez was on board for his maiden score, Denman’s Call gets a rider switch to Flavien Prat, who wins at a 21% clip when riding for O’Neill.

Denman's Call (Northern Afleet - Maggie McGowan, by Salt Lake) Oh I agree, Ashley, love the moniker, although how does Trevor Denman feel about a gelding sharing his name?  I’m surprised they gelded this guy. His dam is a half sister to multiple G1 winner Evening Jewel. This is the family of California legend General Challenge and his ¾ sister, G1 heroine Notable Career. After winning his maiden, Nyquist’s stablemate came back with a strong 5F move. I expect him to progress here and Denman’s Call could hit the board.

Exaggerator—From day 1, it has been Nyquist and Exaggerator. While the former won his debut by a hard-fought head, disregarded Exaggerator finished a well beaten 5^th in the same race. Like a lot of 2-year-olds, Exaggerator took home some important knowledge and bounced back to break his maiden in his next outing. Since then, Exaggerator has added scores in the G2 Saratoga Special and the G3 Delta Downs Jackpot plus a 2^nd and a 4^th in the G1 Breeders’ Futurity and G1 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile respectively. Nyquist won the head-to-head between these two in both meetings, and it’s hard to think that, given all the trouble Nyquist had in the Breeders’ Cup, that result will change.

Exaggerator (Curlin - Dawn Raid, by Vindication) This is a nice, tough colt. He should be able to target his main rival from the outside. His last two breezes were designed to put some early speed into Exaggerator and if Nyquist sets the pace, we may see the two hook up for a match race.  I agree with Ashley, if it comes down to neck and neck, I don’t see Nyquist letting Exaggerator by. Exaggerator follows in the hoof prints of another Keith Desormeaux trainee, Texas Red, who was second in the San Vicente last year. Contender.

Sheikh of Sheikhs—A son of sprinters Discreetly Mine and Homesteader, it looks like Sheikh of Sheikhs will follow suit and be a sprint specialist. Whether it was the distance or the slop, the 1 1/16 mile Breeders’ Futurity was by far this colt’s worst race to date. With the slop as part of the variables, I’d say Sheikh deserves another shot to route, but for now, this is a good second start to his 3-year-old campaign. A speedy type, this Wesley Ward trainee will provide Nyquist some company on the front end.

Sheikh Of Sheikhs (Discreetly Mine - Homesteader, by Pioneering) was held off of the pace for the first time in his career in the Hutcheson Stakes. Having to go five wide around the turn didn’t help. He made up some ground to finish third, but was no threat. The half to G2 sprinter Conquest Two Step has some early speed, but I don’t see him looking Nyquist in the eye for very long and he’ll back down. Sheikh Of Sheikhs late pace speed figures aren’t that great. Maybe he can hold on for a piece.