Handicapping the 2016 Blue Grass Stakes

Ashley

Laurie

Lookin for a Kiss — Has not run a bad race yet, but his best E Speed figure certainly won't get the job done here. Previously trained by Dale Romans, Lookin for a Kiss is now in Michael Tomlinson's barn. This is a big step up for the son of Lookin At Lucky and breaking from the rail in a full field probably won't do him any favors. Pass.

Lookin For A Kiss (Lookin At Lucky - Blowing Kisses, by Vindication) won his six furlong debut in a sharp 1:09.77 at Gulfstream. In his encore against optional claimers, Lookin For A Kiss was left in the dust by Tiger Blood.  That one came back to finish fifth in the Spectacular Bid Stakes. Lookin For A Kiss’ distaff line is full of Grade 1 winning sprinters. His dam is a half to Pussycat Doll and Jimmy Creed. Second dam Hookedonthefeelin is also a G1 winning sprinter.  I agree with Ashley. Pass.  

Donegal Moon — Is a tale of pros and cons. On the one hand, the Donegal Racing owned colt has good form at Keeneland. However, he hasn't done so hot in graded stakes races. Granted he fell to his face and lost his jockey in the Jerome, but he also bookended that mishap of a race with  5^th place efforts in the Remsen and Withers. He absolutely demolished an allowance field in his last start, but that was at Parx, and even his 101 speed figure cannot make up for the effort coming against lesser competition. At 5-1 on the morning line, I just cannot justify using him. Pass.

Donegal Moon (Malibu Moon - Perfect Cause, by Giant's Causeway) face planted at the start of the Jerome Stakes. He showed nothing in the Withers Stakes. A case could be made that Pletcher’s charge was recovering mentally from his Jerome Stakes incident. Donegal Moon’s last race was more indicative of the colt’s abilities, but beating up on lesser runners at Parx doesn’t mean that he can do it here.   Donegal Moon is well-bred. His half siblings were also by excellent stallions and underperformers, but they’ve all raced on dirt. Donegal Moon’s distaff line is loaded with turf affinities. His dam is a half to a turf graded stakes winner and all of her siblings that hit the board did so over the lawn. Donegal Moon’s second dam is the 1995 Champion Turf mare Possibly Perfect. Donegal Moon was able to win and place on the dirt at Keeneland, plus he could get that coveted rail trip, so I’ll give him a shot to fill out the exotics.  Donegal Moon might be a much better horse with a surface switch. Put him on the lawn already! Exotics.

 Cherry Wine — I was admittedly less than enthusiastic about Cherry Wine in last month's Rebel, but I really liked what I saw that day from the striking son of Paddy O'Prado. There's enough speedy types in here that he likely will get a good pace to close into, and 12-1 ML odds are a steal. Contender.

Cherry Wine (Paddy O'Prado - C. S. Royce, by Unbridled's Song) drew a wide post in the Rebel Stakes, and made up ground to finish fourth behind Cupid.  Corey Lanerie  will have the tough task of guiding the gray colt through the full Bluegrass Field with the colt’s customary closer running style.  Cherry Wine’s second dam Sweeping Story was third in the KY Oaks. Dale Romans ships in from Florida. I really liked Cherry Wine in the Rebel and I like him here. If Cherry Wine gets the right trip, he could have a say in the race outcome.  Contender.

Zulu — Finished a game second in the Fountain of Youth behind Mohaymen in his stakes debut in February. Since then, Mohaymen was trounced by juvenile champion Nyquist in the Florida Derby. So what does that say about Zulu? In this spot, not much of anything other than he's a very nice, late-developing colt. While rival Brody's Cause might be considered the class of the field despite his last race in Tampa Bay, I think Zulu is one of the more talented in the field. His 111 E speed figure for the Fountain of Youth is the highest in the field, and Pletcher is putting the blinkers back on this talented son of Bernardini. Contender.

Zulu (Bernardini - Temporada, by Summer Squall) fits a key factor of the last eight Blue Grass Stakes winners.  He placed in a stakes race in Florida.  Since placing behind Mohaymen in the FOY, Zulu has been equipped with a set of shiny new blinkers.  Pletcher captured the Bluegrass last year with Carpe Diem.  Zulu is inbred 3X3 to the blue hen Weekend Surprise. Classy pedigree and should love the extra distance. I agree with Ashley. Contender.

Crescent Drive — Will be trying traditional dirt for the first time. I got burned by Airoforce on that same angle earlier in the year, and I'm not looking to make the same mistake here. However, trainer Tom Amoss does get 30% winners when transferring a runner from turf to dirt, and he and jockey James Graham pair up to boot home winners at a 25% rate. Crescent Drive will add blinkers, so maybe Amoss is looking to have him a bit more involved early on. I'm not convinced. Pass.

Crescent Drive (Flower Alley - Patience Drive, by Pulpit) finally gets to race on dirt after a diet of Polytrack and turf races. He’s bred for dirt; his distaff line is filled with California dirt stakes winners.  Distance should suit, and although he’s taking a huge hike in class. The Tom Amoss trainee could improve his form here. If Crescent Drive can handle the dirt kick back, he could hit the board. Exotics.

Brody's Cause — Is a Grade 1 winner at Keeneland, but that victory came in the mud as a juvenile. Since then, he has run a bang up 3^rd in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile to champion Nyquist and then a disappointing 7^th in his 2016 debut in the Tampa Bay Derby. I am really torn on where I stand with this colt. His Keeneland victory was in the mud, but that 3^rd place BC Juvenile finish was also at Keeneland. My gut tells me that Brody may be a mudder, but I hate to dismiss his other Keeneland race altogether. I wouldn't take 4-1 on him to win, but I am inclined to use him in the exotics.

Brody's Cause (Giant's Causeway - Sweet Breanna, by Sahm) returns to the scene of his greatest triumph. He didn’t lift a hoof in the Tampa Bay Derby, so a lot of questions surround the colt. Maybe he didn’t like the track surface? Is he just not that good? Should we pray for rain? He has a classy pedigree and should handle the distance. His second dam placed in the BC Juvie Fillies. Maybe Brody needed to shake the straw dust off in his last.  I’m inclined to give him another chance. Contender.

Laoban  — Say what you will about this Uncle Mo maiden, but I'm rather fond of him myself. A good many people are griping about the fact that it looks like a maiden will qualify for the Kentucky Derby, but he's had two solid preps at two different tracks. He improved upon his 3^rd place Sham finish with a solid 2^nd place finish in the Gotham. Another improvement of that sort, one that saw his speed figure jump from a 90 to a 108, puts him solidly in the winner's circle. And 12-1 is a price that I will take all day long. Contender.

Laoban (Uncle Mo - Chattertown, by Speightstown) is the best known maiden on the Kentucky Derby trail. He the guy who shows up at all of the right parties, makes all of the right moves, but goes home alone. Laoban’s distaff family is sprint oriented. Laoban has a very awkward, heavy gait, but he tries hard. The Eric Guillot trainee has been facing the “B” team of the Derby trail, but there are no world beaters here. If he starts on the front end, maybe he’ll hang on to earn a minor award. I’ve played against Laoban the last two times. I may regret it, but I’m doing it again!

Twizz — Looks to be another mudder type. It took him 4 starts to break his maiden, and that elusive victory finally came in the slop at Fair Grounds in his last outing. A front-runner, Twizz will likely be part of the early pace, but I think the stretch out from 6 furlongs to 9 will not do him any favors either. Pass.

Twizz  (Twirling Candy - Lively Ballad, by Saint Ballado) showed huge improvement over a muddy Fair Grounds track to beat maidens by 4 ¾ lengths in his last start.  His second dam is a half sister to the stallion High Yield, a winner of the Blue Grass. However, this branch of the family has no blacktype earners in the first two generations.  As Ashley said, a huge leap from a six furlong maiden race to a 1 1/8 mile Grade 1 stakes is a bit much. Pass.

Goats Town — I admittedly get a chuckle out of this colt's name. Clever kudos to whoever was responsible for that one. Like Laoban, Goats Town is still a maiden, but he does not have nearly the distinguished finishes of his rival. His last two works have been bullet breezes out at Oaklawn, and he lost to quite a good colt in American Pioneer in his last outing. Trainer D. Wayne Lukas is a sly dog, but I don't think Goats Town is going to be the one to get it done here. Pass.

Goats Town (Dublin - A. P. Petal, by A.P. Indy) is still a maiden after five starts. Unlike Laoban, Goats Town, named for a Dublin suburb, hasn’t attended the fun stakes parties. I also don’t think the colt likes to win. He’s been in position to have his photo taken, but always manages to let the other horses go first. His losing margins aren’t large enough to indicate that he’s being out-classed.  Goats Town either being polite or hasn’t figured out what racing is. The Lukas trainee is a half to S’Marvelous, winner of the New Orleans ‘Cap at 1 1/8 miles. Goats Town is well bred and could improve with time and distance. But this isn’t the time, or the distance. Baahhh.  Pass.

American Dubai — Really fizzled in the Rebel after a nice Southwest Stakes placing. I had expected better from him, but I think he lost the race straight out of the gate when he was unable to get a good position near the lead. I'm inclined to just put a line through the Rebel for him and move on, but then again, maybe the competition was just as much to “blame” as the break. Could be an exotics play at best.

American Dubai (E Dubai - Smash Review, by Bates Motel) finished second to last in the Rebel Stakes, 20 lengths behind Cupid. Conditioner Rodney Richards attributed the poor showing to a minor bug the colt picked up. American Dubai’s pedigree and race record suggest that he’ll be more competitive as a sprinter/miler. Pass.

Cards Of Stone — Exits Aqueduct and state-bred company for the first time to land in quite the ambitious spot. Trainer Todd Pletcher must have liked what he saw from the new addition to his barn to step him up from a state-bred allowance to an open company Grade 1, but personally, I'm not seeing it myself. Pass.

Cards of Stone (Bustin Stones - Shuffle the Deck, by High Yield) has two victories on his resume, both at a mile against NY state-breds. Cards of Stone has a sprinter/miler pedigree. Why did Pletcher put Cards of Stone in this race? Logical move would have been the Wood Memorial, and he would have sunk like a stone there, too. Pass.

Zapperini — Passed on the Louisiana Derby after running 5^th in the Risen Star in favor of what was supposed to be a start in either the Rushaway or the Spiral at Turfway this past weekend. The fact that he landed here in the Blue Grass instead has me a bit suspicious as I don't like the change in plans. Laurie, neither you nor I liked him in the Risen Star, and that has not changed for me, at least. Pass.

Zapperini (Ghostzapper - Bobby's Babe, by Smart Strike)  just ran around the track in the Risen Star. He should like the extra distance here, but nothing indicates that he has any speed. Pedigree says Zapperini is a later maturing type and he could be a colt to watch later in the year either on dirt or turf. This is a soft field with lots of speed, Ashley, so maybe Zapperini will hoof it pass tired horses to get a minor award. I include him in the exotics at a huge price.

Star Hill  — Ran a surprisingly good race in the Tampa Bay Derby in his last outing. Due to lack of form over Tampa's tricky surface, I had completely dismissed him only to see him bust up my trifecta and superfecta. His speed figure wasn't particularly good for that effort, but both Destin and Outwork, the winner and runner-up that day, are well regarded. Maybe Star Hill was just the best of the rest that day, or maybe he's coming into his own. Either way, if he beats me again, he beats me again. Pass.

Star Hill (Elusive Quality - Padmore, by French Deputy) finished third in the Tampa Bay Derby, but was eight lengths behind Destin. Star Hill has a sprinter/miler pedigree. He’s a half to Canadian Champ Leigh Court, who won the Thoroughbred Club of America (G2) at Keeneland. Star Hill’s full sister Barracks Road is a multiple stakes winning turf miler. A wide post isn’t a good place for a distance challenged horse.  Jaramillo will have to use the colt early to get a good position or take back. I’m with Ashley, pass and hope he doesn’t mess up our plans.

My Man Sam — Ships south from frigid Aqueduct to try his hoof against graded company for the first time. His last two starts resulted in triple digit speed figures, both of which put him at the top of the field in that category. Trainer Chad Brown and jockey Julien Leparoux win together at a 40% clip. There's others that I like better than My Man Sam, but I would definitely nominate him for exotics use.

My Man Sam (Trappe Shot - Lauren Byrd, by Arch) has shown improvement in each of his three starts and posted a second to last bullet breeze. He closed the distance in his last race to finish second, only a length behind Matt King Coal. That one is pointing for the Wood Memorial. My Man Sam has a speed over stamina pedigree. His dam paced in the Jessamine Stakes over the turf and she’s a half to Hudson Steel, a multiple graded stakes turf veteran who won at 1 1/8 miles. The Chad Brown trainee might handle the distance, but the outside post does him no favors. Let’s give him a shot anyway.  Contender.

Pinson (AE) -- The first of two Ramsey owned, Mike Maker trained colts looking to get in the gate, Pinson is a last out maiden winner. Changing his run style from off the pace to pacesetter looks to have been the deciding factor, but even if he should get in the gate for the Blue Grass, getting the lead is far from assured. Pass.

Pinson (Majestic Warrior - Celtic Song, by Giant's Causeway) switched running styles and scored a brave front-running victory at the Fairgrounds last time out against maidens. Pinson’s second dam is multiple stakes placed up to 1 ½ miles, but there’s little blacktype in this female family despite breeding to some very good stallions. Maybe Pinson can change that. Distance should suit, but if Pinson gets into the Blue Grass Stakes, it will be a tough assignment if he plans to go to the front.  Pass.

Hint of Roses (AE) – Is the second half of the Ramsey/Maker combo, but unlike Pinson, Hint of Roses is still a maiden. He's tried both turf and dirt, but his best speed figures came on the lawn. I'm not sure why the Ramseys’ are taking a swing with him in this particular spot, but the reason does not really matter as Hint of Roses would have to draw in off the also eligible list. Pass.

Hint Of Roses (Tapit - Last Kitten, by Catienus) is 0-5. He managed a gaining third in his last start against maidens over the turf.  Hint of Roses has the best pedigree in the field. His dam is a full sister to multiple G1 winner Precious Kitten and a half to Champion Kitten’s Joy. Hint of Roses’ half siblings own minor blacktype. This colt is either a late bloomer or is stopping to smell the roses.  Pass.