Head to Head: See 2 viewpoints on the Fountain of Youth

Ashley

Laurie

1.  Speak Easy (9-2)

Speak Easy was a debut winner for trainer Todd Pletcher. The colt dueled on the lead with Victory Avenue before putting that one away in the stretch to win the seven-furlong event by 1 3/4 lengths, earning a 92 Equibase speed figure. Because that race was contested on Jan. 27, only two from that field have made subsequent starts. The fourth-place finisher was a next-out winner, and the sixth-place finisher fell just a neck shy of also being a next-out winner. Pletcher is 12 percent, 42 percent in the money, with sprint-to-route runners. In the last year, Pletcher is only 11 percent, 33 percent in the money, with last-out maiden winners making their second career start in a graded stake, according to Race Lens. But Speak Easy will have Irad Ortiz Jr. back in the irons. With his lone speed figure in the 90s, Speak Easy is one to consider. Use underneath.

Speak Easy pressured Victory Avenue throughout a maiden event through splits of 22.64, 44.61 and 1:09.03 before paving through the victory and finishing seven furlongs in 1:21.96, with a 12.93 final furlong. Victory Avenue was game in defeat, finishing 1 3/4 lengths behind. Both colts were professional, keeping straight paths without antics. Speak Easy earned a huge 103 Brisnet Speed Rating, with a 97 late-pace figure. Constitution's son is the first winner out of multiple graded-placed Fun, a daughter of Harlan's Holiday. The Todd Pletcher trainee posted a pre-race five furlongs in 1:00.15. I'm wary of debuting maiden winners who run triple-digit ratings in their initial start and face graded winners next out because unless they're something exceptional, these types generally regress. Unless he can rate, Speak Easy could face outside pressure from nemesis Victory Avenue and Dornoch. Perhaps he can hold on for a minor award. Exotics.

2.  Le Dom Bro (30-1)

Le Dom Bro had a solid start to his career, rattling off a couple of second-place efforts before finally winning in his third career start. He tried the Remsen (G2) in his fourth start and ran to his 81-1 odds, finishing ninth, beaten by 30 1/2 lengths. He did rebound nicely to grab second in the Swale Stakes to begin his 2024 campaign, but it's worth noting that he wheeled back from nine furlongs to seven furlongs. He checked in 3 1/2 lengths behind Frankie's Empire and received a career-best 87 Equibase speed figure. Edwin Gonzalez has the mount for trainer Eniel Cordero. Prior to the Remsen, Cordero had never had a graded-stakes starter and is now 0-for-1 in graded stakes after Le Dom Bro's dismal effort in the Remsen. I didn't like him in that race, and I don't like him here (despite being sired by one of my personal favorites). Pass.

Le Dom Bro's only poor performance was in the Remsen (G2) when he checked home 30 lengths behind Dornoch. Le Dom Bro had a tough task facing winners for the first time in the Remsen while making his first start off the layoff for new trainer Eniel Cordero. Mucho Macho Man's son is the first black-type earner out of the Peruvian stakes winner Valiant Emilia, a winner from six furlongs to 1 1/4 miles. Le Dom Bro made his 3-year-old debut in the Swale, tailgating the pace on the rail while being pressed by horses to his outside. In the stretch Irad Ortiz Jr. pushed the game colt through an opening on the rail, but Le Dom Bro spent his energy arguing with eventual fourth-place finisher Billal while Frankie's Empire sailed by on the outside. Le Dom Bro won the debate with Billal and gained second place, 3 1/2 lengths behind Frankie's Empire. Young trainer Eniel Cordero gave Le Dom Bro a pre-race, four-furlong move in 47.85, a full second faster than previous works, and Edwin Gonzalez takes over the reins for the Fountain of Youth. Gonzalez has hit the board with six of 10 mounts traveling a route at Gulfstream. Le Dom Bro should improve on his Swale effort. How much remains to be seen since his career-best Brisnet Speed Rating is 88, and his late-pace figure of 81 won't cut it for a victory, but his tactical running style could get him a lower exotics check at a hefty price. Toss him in a 10-cent super for fun.

3.  Victory Avenue (4-1)

Victory Avenue was second on debut to Speak Easy in a seven-furlong maiden event at Gulfstream on Jan. 27. Speak Easy closely pressed the pace set by Victory Avenue before gaining the advantage off the far turn. That foe went on to win by 1 3/4 lengths. Trainer Gustavo Delgado is 0-for-2 with runners making their second career start in a graded stakes over the last five years, according to Race Lens. Mage was fourth in last year's edition of this race, and Jirafales was fifth in the 2021 Holy Bull (G3). John Velazquez takes over from Luis Saez. This is a big step up for a colt who is still a maiden. Pass.

Victory Avenue was game in defeat in his debut, earning a 100 Brisnet Speed Rating. By Arrogate out of an unraced Scat Daddy mare, Victory Avenue should improve with maturity and distance. There's little black type in his female family, although his third dam is multiple stakes-winning sprinter Unbridled Sidney. Trainer Gustavo Delgado conditioned Mage to a fourth-place finish in last year's Fountain of Youth after the colt captured his seven-furlong debut. Victory Avenue had two stamina-building breezes after his second-place finish, and he should be stronger in this spot. Exotics.

4.  Real Macho (8-1)

Real Macho is a Gulfstream local, having made all four career starts at the track. The chestnut colt has either won or finished fifth in all four starts. Real Macho was fifth on debut, 16 1/2 lengths behind winner No More Time, who won the Sam F. Davis (G3) in his most recent start. Real Macho then won at second asking. Two from that field went on to eventually become winners. Real Macho was once again fifth in his third career start, and the top two finishers from that race went on to run 11th in the Sam F. Davis (G3) and Risen Star (G2) in their next races. The colt most recently won a one-mile optional claimer over fellow entrant Merit, who was third. Tyler Gaffalione, who was aboard for the colt's last start, retains the mount for trainer Rohan Crichton, who is 0 percent, 26 percent in the money, in graded stakes over the last five years, according to Race Lens. Pass.

Real Macho made a sustained drive starting around the turn and needed the entire length of the stretch to nail Born Noble on the wire in his last start, crawling his final furlong in 13.84. Real Macho has a lose-win cycle and had no apparent excuse in his previous start at 1 1/16 miles. Mucho Macho Man’s son is out of a Curlin mare. His dam is half to a Grade 3-placed turf miler and a Grade 1-placed sprinter. Although Real Macho posted a career-best rating of 94 in his last race, the Rohan Crichton trainee's Brisnet past performances are inconsistent, and he's never strung two wins together. His outside chance of upsetting the applecart would be a torrid early pace, where everyone is straggling home and he crawls past to win. Anything could happen, but I'm not betting on it. Pass.

5.  Dornoch (2-1)

Dornoch is making his 2024 debut, entering off a nose victory in the Remsen (G2) on Dec. 2. Runner-up Sierra Leone captured the Risen Star (G2) in his next start and third-place finisher Drum Roll Please won the Jerome Stakes next out. Seventh-place finisher Domestic Product was second in the Holy Bull (G3) in his subsequent start. Trainer Danny Gargan is 13 percent, 50 percent in the money, with runners off a two- to-six-month layoff. But regular jockey Luis Saez retains the mount, and he and Gargan win together at a 29 percent clip, 52 percebt in the money. Contender.

Dornoch has won or placed over a different track in all four career starts, and his speed ratings improved each time. In his final race prep, Danny Gargan gave Dornoch an excellent four-furlong breeze in 47.90 with the maiden filly Neat Trick. Dornoch was well within himself, the rider sitting like a statue while the filly was severely outclassed. Dornoch looked really good. Mage’s half-brother should be ready to roll. Contender.

6.  Merit (15-1)

Merit was a dazzling 10 1/4-length debut winner for trainer Saffie Joseph Jr. With Edgard Zayas aboard, Merit pressed the pace, began to move around the far turn and swept away to an easy victory. Only one from that field eventually became a winner, but a handful did hit the board in their next starts. In his second start, Merit once again prompted the pace but weakened in the stretch to finish third, beaten by 5 1/2-lengths by Real Macho. The colt's Equibase speed figure also dropped from an 81 to a 71. Zayas retains the mount for Joseph. Pass.

Merit outclassed a herd of maidens by 10 lengths in his debut last year. Only one of his seven rivals has won in subsequent starts. In his first start of the year, the Saffie Joseph Jr. trainee flashed speed before fading to a distant third place behind Real Macho. Mastery's son is out of an unraced Vindication mare, and Merit is half to stakes-winning turf router Hello Don Julio. The extended family includes multiple G1 hero National Treasure, plus Grade 1 winners Telling, Well Chosen and Leofric. Merit had a pre-race bullet five-furlong breeze in 1:01 in company with recent maiden winner Tour Guide. Merit had quicker leg action than his larger, longer-striding mate. Merit broke behind Tour Guide, was head-and-head in the stretch and pulled about a neck in front past the wire without being pushed. Merit has choppy action as opposed to a smooth, long stride. Pass.

7.  Frankie's Empire (20-1)

Frankie's Empire enters off a career-best effort in the Swale Stakes. The colt made a sustained run to pull away and win by 3 1/2 lengths over Le Dom Bro. He received a 94 Equibase speed figure. Overall, Frankie's Empire is 7: 4-0-1. He has previously faced Dornoch, finishing third to that rival's second in the Sapling Stakes at Monmouth. The colt finished off the board in his previous two attempts at a route race, and I'm not a fan of trainer Michael Yates trying to stretch him back out here. Yates is only 6 percent, 35 percent in the money, with sprint-to-route runners and is 12 percent, 47 percent in the money, in graded stakes in the last five years, according to Race Lens. Use underneath.

Frankie's Empire closed to post a 3 1/2-length victory in the Swale Stakes over Le Dom Bro in his last start. The Michael Yates trainee got his final furlong in a tepid 13.29, and his 93 speed rating was comparable to his previous start. Classic Empire's son is out of the sakes-placed miler Donna D. Frankie's Empire's half-sister Chaparella is a stakes-winning miler, and another half-sister is a stakes-placed sprinter. Frankie's Empire should handle two turns; with improvement, he could play the spoiler. Live long shot.

8.  Locked (5-2)

Locked has never been out of the trifecta in his career. In his debut, he was third behind graded-stakes-placed Just Steel, with Holy Bull (G3) runner-up Domestic Product also exiting that race. In his second start, Locked beat Jerome Stakes winner and Remsen third-place finisher Drum Roll Please by 7 1/4 lengths. In his third start, Locked won the Breeders' Futurity (G1) by a determined half-length. He followed that up with a solid third in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile (G1) to close out his juvenile year. Locked was slated to make his 2024 bow in the Sam F. Davis (G3) but spiked a fever and had to be redirected. By all accounts, Locked is the one to beat, but the wide draw and Gulfstream's short stretch might prevent us from seeing his best work. The Juvenile is looking pretty key, however. Muth and Timberlake both won graded stakes in their next starts, Noted won a listed stake, and Fierceness finished third in the Holy Bull (G3) in his next outing. Regular rider Jose Ortiz retains the mount for trainer Todd Pletcher. Contender.

The class of the field, Grade 1 hero Locked has been logging mileage at Palm Beach Downs. The Equibase breeze record doesn't tell the entire story. Locked and his mates are pushed to full-out gallops past the wire and around the turn, building fitness. Although he didn't want to pass Fierceness in January, Locked has outclassed a maiden (Acclaimed Victor), and the older Grade 3 placed Expressman in subsequent works. Locked, a powerful-looking Chestnut, resembles his sire, Gun Runner. His dam, by Malibu Moon, is a half to multiple Grade 1 winning heroine Gabby's Golden Gal and to multiple Grade 2 winner Always a Princess. As Ashley noted, last year's Breeders' Cup Juvenile is a key race yielding quality runners. Todd Pletcher captured last year's Fountain of Youth with Breeders' Cup hero Forte in the colt's 3-year-old debut. Contender.

9.  Dancing Groom (30-1)

By Vino Rosso, Dancing Groom has only one victory from five career starts. The Antonio Sano trainee most recently was fifth in the Holy Bull (G3), making him 3: 0-0-1 in graded stakes races. Javier Castellano, who was aboard the colt for his sixth in the Kentucky Jockey Club (G2), has the call for trainer Antonio Sano. Castellano has ridden for Sano six times in the past year, and the pair never hit the board during that time span. Pass.

Dancing Groom tangoed with the wrong partners in his last two starts, the Kentucky Jockey Club (G2) and Holy Bull (G3), finishing a combined 21 1/2 lengths behind the winners. Sure, he beat a sad group of maidens at Saratoga last August, but none of them have won in multiple subsequent starts. Perhaps a start against non-winners of two at 1 1/8 miles would be more suitable. Pass.

         Ashley

         Laurie

5. Dornoch

8. Locked

8. Locked

5. Dornoch

7. Frankie's Empire

7. Frankie's Empire

1. Speak Easy

3. Victory Avenue