Fountain of Youth analysis: Picking a winner is not so simple

A dozen hopefuls are entered for Saturday's Grade 2, $400,000 Fountain of Youth Stakes. The 1 1/16-mile event is the second leg of preps for the 2022 Kentucky Derby held at Gulfstream Park and has a qualifying points scale of 50-20-10-5.

Mo Donegal was scratched because of a fever, so Galt draws in.

Simplification, Giant Game, and Galt finished second, third and fourth, respectively, in the Holy Bull Stakes (G3), and they return for another shot at the winner's circle.

Let's review the field.

Simplification (7-2) proved that he could rate and pass horses in the Holy Bull after blowing the break. He closed furiously in the stretch but ran out of real estate, finishing 4 1/2 lengths behind White Abarrio. Breaking from post 2, Jose Ortiz can use Simplification's speed to grab the lead or sit behind the pace. The Antonio Sano trainee has a win/lose cycle that dates back to last October's debut. He lost his last race, so... Win contender.

Emmanuel (9-2) was impressive in his first two starts, winning by a combined 11 1/4 lengths. Now it's time to see whether Todd Pletcher has another Derby contender. He fired a bullet 48.05 seconds for four furlongs in his final breeze in company with 2020 Bourbon Stakes (G2) winner Mutasaabeq and finished a half-length in front of his rival, not giving an inch. By More Than Ready out of a half-sister to Grade 1 winner Free Drop Billy, Emmanuel should have the class to be competitive. Win contender.

A. P.'s Secret (20-1) beat optional claimers by 1 1/2 lengths in his last start. He's conditioned by second-leading trainer Saffie Joseph Jr. and piloted by third-leading jock Tyler Gaffalione. In his last start, Cupid's son completed a mile in 1:35.54, getting his final furlong in a not-bad 12.61. While it's true that he didn't beat anything and was spanked by Strike Hard by four lengths in his second start, A. P.'s Secret's speed ratings are improving, and he has tactical speed. Double secret win contender.

In Due Time (6-1) improved in his second start off the layoff to destroy optional claimers by 5 3/4 lengths, beating two well-regarded and pricey last-out maidens, American Icon (by Gun Runner) and Iron Works (by Distorted Humor) in the process. The Kelly Breen trainee posted a bullet five furlongs in 59.60 on Feb. 28, but he was pushed through the lane in this solo move. Not This Time's son is out of an unraced Curlin half-sister to a multiple stakes earner of over $600,000, Successful Song. In Due Time's Brisnet speed ratings are going in the right direction, and Paco Lopez should secure a good early spot from post 4. Exotics.

Dale Romans entered a pair of long shots, Howling Time and Giant Game, both 15-1. Of the pair, Howling Time (15-1) has the most upside. A 3 1/2-length winner of the Street Sense Stakes, The Not This Time colt faded to fifth in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes (G2) after setting the pace. That race yielded three next-out winners and a runner-up in graded stakes. Howling Time enters the Fountain of Youth with a trio of bullet four- and five-furlong works at Gulfstream. He looked good in his last breeze, being lightly hand-urged through the wire but doing it all on his own. Romans gets 11 percent winners off the layoff with 3-year-olds. Lower exotics.

Giant Game (15-1) disappointed in the Holy Bull, his first start off a layoff. Breaking from the far outside, the Giant's Causeway colt was used early to get position and was in contention until they rounded the far turn, then Luis Saez ran out of horse. Corey Lanerie takes the mount as Saez opts for Emmanuel. Giant Game will break from post 10, and this could be Holy Bull, part Deux. Lower exotics.

Galt (12-1) showed a new dimension breaking from the rail in the Holy Bull as Junior Alvarado hustled him to the lead. Unfortunately, the tactic backfired as Songbird's little brother ran out of oats in the stretch and faded to fourth, beaten 5 1/2 lengths. Joel Rosario will have to work out a trip from the far outside, so he'll either have to hustle the Bill Mott trainee into contention or drop back and look for a way to save ground. Lower exotics.

High Oak (8-1) returns to the stakes scene in his first start of the year after he posted a recent 1:01.80 five-furlong gate work at Payson. The Bill Mott trainee was last seen staggering home fourth, beaten 9 1/4 lengths by Gunite in the Hopeful (G1), after winning the Saratoga Special (G2). The Hopeful produced next-out winners Volcanic, who was later third in the Sam F. Davis (G3) and Defend, an allowance optional claiming winner at Delaware. According to Stats Race Lens, Mott horses win 23 percent in their first start off the layoff stretching out. High Oak breaks from post 9 and will likely have a wide trip, so I think he'll need the start. Toss.

Breeders' Futurity (G1) hero Rattle N Roll (12-1) makes his much-anticipated 3-year-old debut. The Futurity yielded Sam F. Davis (G3) winner Classic Causeway, but that's about it. Rattle N Roll, who missed the Breeders' Cup Juvenile because of a hoof abscess, has a list of steady works at Gulfstream. The Ken McPeek trainee posted two sub-1:00 five-furlong works in company with maidens; but, lathered like a shampoo commercial, he was pushed and encouraged both times and was outworked by the Creative Cause colt, Creative Minister. McPeek wins 11 percent off the layoff. Toss.

Dean Delivers (15-1) has a case of seconditis. The gelding lost out on the photo by a neck twice and was a half-length second in the Swale (G3). The Michael Yates trainee had every opportunity to get by his rival but refused to pass. Dean Delivers has a sprinter's pedigree, and sire Cajun Magic's offspring are 0-for-21 at a mile and farther, although four hit the board. Toss.

Pasco Stakes winner Markhamian (20-1) has done everything asked of him. After dueling through a quick pace in the Pasco Stakes, the Juan Avila trainee was passed on the outside but came back late to win by 2 1/2 lengths. Markhamian should handle two turns, and the rail position suites his forwardly placed running style. But the knock against him is that he got his Pasco final furlong in a pokey 13.56. Toss.

O Captain (30-1) chased a blazing pace in the Limehouse Stakes and could do no better than a distant third, beaten 8 1/2 lengths. With his fearful trip done, O Captain got his final furlong of the six-furlong race in 13.10. Carpe Diem's son won his debut by nine lengths last August, but none of his competitors returned to win. Toss.

Race analysis

Posts 8 through 10 are usually the kiss of death at Gulfstream, yet a good horse can win from the outside. Recently, Promises Fulfilled (2018) and Ete Indien (2020) exited posts 9 and 10, respectively. Both grabbed the lead and kept going.

Since 2008, no Fountain of Youth winner finished worse than fourth in their previous start, and only two won off a layoff.

The last winning favorite was Mohaymen (2016), although two since then finished third.

2. Simplification (7-2)

7. A. P.'s Secret (20-1)

8. Emmanuel (9-2)

6. In Due Time (6-1)