Derby pedigrees: Taiba hopes to change Derby history

Taiba added his name to the 2022 Kentucky Derby contenders list with a 2 1/4-length upset of stablemate Messier in the Grade 1 Santa Anita Derby. He completed 1 1/8 miles in 1:48.46, getting his final furlong in 12.60.

The Tim Yakteen trainee was making his second start and first for the Yakteen stable. Last month, Taiba won his debut by an impressive 7 1/2 lengths under the care of Bob Baffert.

Bruce Ryan bred Taiba and sold him as a yearling for $140,000 to Hartley/De Renzo Thoroughbreds. The chestnut colt breezed a furlong in 10.1 at the OBS March Selected 2-Year-Olds in Training sale and brought $1.7 million from Gary Young for Zedan Racing Stables. Taiba has 100 qualifying points for the Derby.

Taiba (Gun Runner - Needmore Flattery, by Flatter) is one of three Kentucky Derby contenders from the second crop of leading second-crop sire Gun Runner. Arkansas Derby (G1) hero Cyberknife and Early Voting, winner of the Withers (G3) and runner-up in the Wood Memorial (G1), are expected to join Taiba in the starting gate.

2017 Horse of the Year Gun Runner (Candy Ride (ARG) - Quiet Giant, by Giant's Causeway) passes his class to his offspring. The leading first- and second-crop sire scored big with his first crop, getting the undefeated champion 2-year-old filly Echo Zulu, Best Pal (G2) hero and Breeders' Cup Juvenile runner-up Pappacap, and four other black-type winners. His offspring should have no distance limitations.

The first competitor out of a two-time Ohio horse of the year, Taiba is like the local boy who earned an Ivy League degree, as his distaff line is filled with sturdy restricted stakes-class runners who are regular visitors to the winner's circle.

Needmore Flattery (Flatter - Kiosk, by Left Banker) earned $732,103 the hard way, winning 17 of 39 starts in her four-year career. She frequently strung together four- and five-race win streaks in restricted stakes from five furlongs to 1 1/8 miles over dirt and turf.

Her full sister Flatter Her Again is restricted stakes-placed, and two half-siblings are restricted black-type sprinter class runners. Their dam Kiosk (Left Banker - Phone Switch, by Phone Trick), a restricted multiple stakes-placed sprinter, compiled $115,649 in 31 starts, hitting the board in 18 attempts.

Flatter's (A.P. Indy - Praise, by Mr. Prospector) progeny and that of his daughters are solid middle-distance winners up to 1 1/8 miles, with a couple of exceptions. His son West Coast won the 2017 Travers Stakes (G1) and was third in that year's Breeders' Cup Classic. Flatter's daughter Taris bore King Fury (Curlin), winner of the 1 3/16-mile Bourbon Trail Stakes at Churchill Downs.

Taiba's second damsire Left Banker (Afleet - Du Marche, by Montparnasse II) was an allowance-class competitor who hit the board in eight of 10 starts. A late bloomer, Left Banker didn't make his first start until he was 3, and it took four trips around the Gulfstream Park oval to find the winner's circle. The son of Afleet won from seven furlongs to 1 1/8 miles.

Kentucky Derby contender or pretender?

In the last decade, three Santa Anita Derby winners wore the Kentucky Roses, while two finished in the money.

Taiba is a winner at 1 1/8 miles, and his female family's bloodlines are strong to 1 1/8 miles. Gun Runner clearly imparted class to Taiba, as the colt is the first graded winner in his family since the 1990s and the first-ever Grade 1 winner.

Taiba has the conformation of a route horse. He has a smooth stride with no wasted motion and excellent leg extension. He keeps a straight path and switches leads correctly. Although he has good gate speed, Taiba is comfortable sitting behind horses and has a high cruising speed.

But it takes more than pedigree and the ability to target and pass horses for a young, inexperienced colt to triumph in Kentucky. Taiba started his racing career just over a month ago. As a result, he lacks experience and, more important, the "bottom" or physical foundation gained by racing.

We see talented, lightly raced colts get chewed up in the Kentucky Derby traffic jam every year. Colts who don't compete as 2-year-olds don't win the Kentucky Derby; at least that was true until Justify broke the 136-year record. Yet Justify benefited from three recent races under his girth before heading to Kentucky.

Taiba will face overwhelming conditions in Kentucky. He'll be traveling to race for the first time and facing experienced, battle-hardened colts. Fortunately, Taiba will have Mike Smith aboard to help him avoid trouble and come back safe.