Derby pedigrees: Simplification should handle classic distances
on Horse Racing Nation
Simplification went to the post as the co-favorite for the Grade 1 Florida Derby on April 2. But after pressing pacesetter Classic Causeway and then overcoming a brief challenge by Pappacap, Simplification tired, and he yielded to the late-running White Abarrio and Charge It.
The Antonio Sano trainee has 74 qualifying points for the 2022 Kentucky Derby. He earned four points for his second-place finish in the Holy Bull (G3) and 50 points for his 3 1/2-length victory in the Fountain of Youth (G2).
Sano previously conditioned Gunnevera, who was second in the Holy Bull, won the Fountain of Youth and was third in the Florida Derby before finishing seventh in the 2017 Kentucky Derby.
Simplification was bred in Florida by France Weiner and Irwin Weiner. He didn't meet his $50,000 reserve as a weanling at the 2019 Keeneland November Breeding Stock Sale. Owner Tami Bobo later bought Simplification as a pinhook prospect but kept the colt because of physical concerns.
Simplification (Not This Time - Simply Confection, by Candy Ride (ARG)) and Derby points leader Epicenter are by the up-and-coming Not This Time. The prolific stallion also sired Fountain of Youth runner-up In Due Time, who, with 20 qualifying points, needs a win in Saturday's Lexington (G3) to have a chance for the Kentucky Derby starting gate.
Not This Time (Giant's Causeway - Miss Macy Sue, by Trippi) is
the leading third-crop sire by earnings and is eighth on the general sire list.
From only two crops to race, the son of Giant's Causeway has sired 18 graded
and listed winners, led
by recent Madison Stakes (G1) heroine Just One Time.
So far, only one of Not This Time's offspring have hit the board beyond nine furlongs on dirt, but two turf routers placed at classic distances, so the ability is there. Unfortunately, few races are carded beyond nine furlongs on dirt, so we rarely see the actual ability of a sire's stamina-oriented offspring.
Simplification and Louisiana Derby (G2) winner Epicenter are bred on the same cross, as both are out of daughters of Candy Ride. Not This Time has five starters, all winners, including two graded winners from this cross.
A lot is going on in Simplification's pedigree, as it is filled with full and half siblings. His six-generation chart shows color-coded half and full siblings.
Additionally, the full siblings Glorious Song (dam of Rahy) and Saint Ballado (Simplification's second damsire) and half-siblings Halo and Maribeau (damsire of Mari's Book) are part of the pedigree, but not within five generations.
Not This Time (Giant's Causeway - Miss Macy Sue, by Trippi) is the third stakes winner and second successful stallion out of the graded winner and producer, Miss Macy Sue. His half-brother, Liam's Map (Unbridled), set a new track record at Keeneland in the 2015 Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile (G1).
Not This Time's distaff line is a product of the top Florida breeders, Tartan Farms (later Mockingbird Farm)/John Nerud bloodlines, and Claiborne Kentucky royalty.
The stallion's second dam Yada Yada (Great Above - Stem, by Damascus), has Rasmussen Factor breeding to two-time Champion Sprinter, Ta Wee, a half-sister to Champion Miler Dr. Fager..
An excellent race mare and producer, Ta Wee's son Great Above sired Yada Yada, and her daughter Tweak (Secretariat) is Yada Yada's second dam. Great Above also sired 1994 Horse of the Year Holy Bull.
Simplification is the first foal out of Simply Confection; he has an unnamed 2-year-old half-sister by Mendelssohn.
Simply Confection (Candy Ride (ARG) - Ballado's Halo, by Saint Ballado) competed from ages 2 to 4 in Kentucky as an allowance-class runner and finished second in the one-mile Rags to Riches Stakes. She compiled a 15: 3-1-2 record and earned $124,688.
Simply Confection's half-sister Halo's Verse (Unbridled's Song) bore a trio of stakes earners; Inflexibility (Scat Daddy), a multiple stakes-winning turf router in Canada, Halo Again (Speightstown), a multiple stakes winner from seven to nine furlongs, and Fundamental (Arch), placed in six turf stakes.
Simply Confection's second dam Ballado's Halo (Saint Ballado - Goulash, by Mari's Book) is a stakes-placed sprinter. She has Rasmussen Factor breeding to Almahamoud through her daughters Cosmah, dam of Halo (sire of Saint Ballado), and Natalma, dam of Northern Dancer (Sire of Marie's Book).
The class continues with Simplification's third dam, Goulash (Mari's Book - Wise Bride, by Blushing Groom).
She bore Ballado's Halo's three full siblings, two-time champ Ashado, who owns Breeders' Cup Distaff and Kentucky Oaks trophies; Grade 1 winner Sunriver; stakes-winning turf miler Saint Stephen, plus their half-brother, stakes placed sprinter Storm Creek Rising (Storm Creek).
Simplification's damsire Candy Ride (ARG) also benefits from Rasmussen Factor breeding. His sire Ride the Rails (Cryptoclearance - Herbalesian, by Herbager) is inbred to the Reine Alablue through Cryptoclearance's second dam Mock Orange (Dedicate) and Ride the Rails' second dam Alanesian (Polynesian).
The Argentinian sensation stands 24 on the leading broodmare sire list by earnings, and his daughters have produced 24 listed and graded winners.
Kentucky Derby contender or pretender?
When picking their Kentucky Derby horses, many handicappers overlook the runners-up of the prep races. Don't automatically toss these horses.
Since the inception of the Florida Derby in 1959, 16 second- and third-place finishers hit the top three in Kentucky. The last was Code of Honor. Third in the 2019 edition of the Florida Derby, he was moved to second in Kentucky after Maximum Security's disqualification.
That being said, Simplification slowed notably in the stretch of the Florida Derby despite cutting the corner on the far turn. He got his final furlong in a pokey 14.5, while Charge It's time was 13.9 and White Abarrio completed his last furlong in 14.1.
Simpification's pedigree and conformation indicate that nine and 10 furlongs should be within his scope as he stretches out. However, he has slightly high knee action, and he doesn't always switch leads in the stretch.
Simplification has gained experience in each start this year. He learned to sit behind horses in the Holy Bull Stakes when he was off slow, and he successfully employed this tactic in the Fountain of Youth. He didn't switch leads in the Fountain of Youth or the Holy Bull, but he did in the Florida Derby.
Simplification has shown two traits critical for doing well in the Kentucky Derby. He overcame trouble twice and doesn't need to be up close early to run his best race. He has a swift closing move when allowed to settle off the pace. This could be worth a top four finish if he returns to this tactic in Kentucky.