Derby pedigrees: Sovereignty could reign as 2025 winner

After his courageous victory in the Grade 2 Fountain of Youth (G2), Sovereignty was installed as the betting favorite in the Florida Derby (G1). But he was hampered by the far outside post and an unfamiliar jockey at the reins. Manny Franco was a last-minute replacement for the colt’s injured regular jockey, Junior Alvarado.

Sovereignty (Into Mischief - Crowned, by Bernardini) gave it his best shot but came up 1 1/4 lengths short behind Tappan Street. He completed his final furlong in a sharp 12.47 seconds, while Tappan Street’s final furlong was 12.67. His Brisnet Speed Rating dropped a few points to 94 from his career-best 99 in the Fountain of Youth.

Conditioned by Bill Mott, the Godolphin homebred earned 50 Kentucky Derby qualifying points for his second-place finish and has 110 total points. He has a 5: 2-2-0 record and earned $572,800.  

Sire

Into Mischief (Harlan’s Holiday - Leslie’s Lady, by Tricky Creek) continues his seven-year reign as the leading general sire. He also sired Tappan Street and last year’s 2-year-old champ, Citizen Bull.

Into Mischief is the mainstay of Spendthrift Farm’s breeding program. He is also the first sire to produce back-to-back Kentucky Derby champions, Authentic in 2020 and Mandaloun in 2021, though Mandaloun benefitted from the disqualification of Medina Spirit, who crossed the finish line first.

The Into Mischief x Bernardini cross has yielded 19 winners, three of them stakes winners, including the solid Owendale, a veteran of 23 starts and Grade 3-winning sprinter, Twenty Carat.

Female family

Sovereignty’s distaff line is highlighted by a pair of Grade 1 heroines, Mushka and Lakeway, and he carries the stamina influences of damsires Empire Maker, Seeking the Gold and Seattle Slew.

Sovereignty is the third foal out of the unraced mare Crowned (Bernardini - Mushka, by Empire Maker), a $1.2-million Keeneland September yearling bought by Godolphin. Sovereignty’s full sisters, Jane Gray and Misintention, were lightly raced and didn’t earn black-type status. Crowned produced a Nyquist colt last year.

Sovereignty’s second dam Mushka, also conditioned by Bill Mott, won or placed in 12 of 19 starts in four years, including the Spinster (G1), Demoiselle (G2) and Glens Falls Handicap at 1 3/8 miles on the lawn. She was a runner-up in the 2009 Breeders’ Cup Distaff.

Mushka was the most accomplished foal out of the multiple stakes-winning miler Sluice (Seeking the Gold). Sovereignty’s fourth dam, Lakeway, was a multiple Grade 1 heroine from a mile to 1 1/8 miles. She was second in the 1994 Kentucky Oaks and finished third in the 1995 Breeders’ Cup Distaff.

The Preakness winner and champion 3-year-old Bernardini (A.P. Indy - Cara Rafaela, by Quiet American) won six of eight starts. His only losses were a fourth-place finish in his debut and finishing second to the older Argentinean sensation Invasor by a length in the 2006 Breeders’ Cup Classic after a seven-race campaign.

Bernardini’s offspring include Travers (G1) winners Alpha and Stay Thirsty, Pegasus World Cup (G1) hero Art Collector, plus Grade 1 heroines Cavorting and Angela Rene, who completed the exacta in the 2014 Adirondack (G2), and of course, Rachels Valentina, daughter of the legendary Rachael Alexandra.

Bernardini’s class extends to his daughter’s offspring. His 113 stakes winners include Alabama Stakes (G1) heroine Dunbar Road and Catholic Boy, successful at 1 1/4 miles, plus Grade 1-winning turf routers Colonel Liam and Hunter O’Riley.

Kentucky Derby contender or pretender?

The Florida Derby has produced more Kentucky Derby winners than any other prep, but the record of the second-place finishers in the Florida prep isn’t as kind. Two years ago, Mage placed in Florida before wearing the roses in Kentucky, as did Strike the Gold (1991), Cannonade (1974) and Venetian Way (1960).

Sovereignty is an imposing colt standing 16.3 hands high with a classic conformation and the pedigree to run all day. He’s professional, switches leads and keeps a straight path with no excessive leg movement, such as paddling.

Despite his size, Sovereignty is quick enough to press the pace or settle mid-pack if asked. He was second in his second career start while tracking the pace in third position. Sovereignty isn’t dependent on a fast early pace. His E1, E2 and late-pace figures show he isn’t just a one-paced closer as they rise throughout the race, a good sign heading into the Derby.

Sovereignty has all the goods to reign as our next Kentucky Derby champ. Perhaps decades won’t pass before the next Florida Derby runner-up wears the roses.