Ky. Derby pedigrees: Is Baffert's Rodriguez a rising star?

After playing second fiddle to stablemates Citizen Bull and Barnes in California, Rodriguez shipped to New York and schooled Kentucky Derby 2025 hopefuls in the Grade 2 Wood Memorial. After losing the blinkers, he played catch me if you can on the front end. They couldn’t, and Rodriguez galloped home a 3 1/2-length hero. He completed 1 1/8 miles in 1:48.15 with a decent 12.47-second final furlong.

Rodriguez (Authentic - Cayala, by Cherokee Run) was bred by Kingswood Farm and David Egan and was a $485,000 Keeneland September yearling purchase by SF Bloodstock-Starlight Racing-Madaket Stables. They campaign the dark bay colt along with Stonestreet Stables, Dianne Bashor, Determined Stables, Robert Masterson, Tom Ryan, Waves Edge Capital and Catherine Donovan.

Conditioned by Bob Baffert, Rodriguez has a 5: 2-2-1 record with earnings of $522,800. He previously finished second in the Robert B. Lews (G3) and third in the San Felipe (G2), earning a total of 121.25 Kentucky Derby qualifying points.

Sire

Authentic (Into Mischief - Flawless, by Mr. Greeley) captured his first three starts, including the Sham (G3) and San Felipe Stakes (G2). The Bob Baffert trainee suffered his first defeat in the Santa Anita Derby (G1) when he broke a step slow, drifted in and finished an unfocused second to A.P. Honor. 

Since the 2020 Kentucky Derby was rescheduled to September, Authentic returned to his winning ways in the Haskell (G1) in July, holding on by a desperate nose over NY Traffic. After a second-place finish in the Preakness, Authentic dominated the Breeders’ Cup Classic and set a new track record of 1:59.60 for 1 1/4 miles, earning him dual honors as champion 3-year-old and horse of the year.

As the second-leading second-crop sire, Authentic’s babies should mature with age and handle middle to classic distances. From six starters at 1 1/8 miles, he has one winner and two second-place finishers. 

Besides Rodriguez, the stallion’s first graded winner, Authentic sired Westwood, third in the Santa Anita Derby, and Innovator, third in the Lecomte (G3).

Female family

Rodriguez’s female family has a blend of speed and stamina. Damsire 1994 champion sprinter Cherokee Run balances stamina offered by Belmont Stakes hero Touch Gold, Travers (G1) winner Forty Niner, and Kentucky Derby winner Sunny’s Halo. Sunny’s Halo is also Burnham Square’s third damsire.

Rodriguez’s dam Cayla (Cherokee Run - Chasethegold, by Touch Gold) was an indifferent runner, winning one of a dozen races, but she has excelled in the breeding shed.

Cayla has produced seven competitors, successful from five furlongs to 1 1/8 miles. Three of Rodriguez’s three-quarter brothers by Into Mischief have earned black type.

2017 Southwest Stakes (G3) hero One Liner placed in the 1 3/16 mile Pimlico Special (G3). Provocateur won a pair of sprint stakes and was third in the Woody Stephens (G1), and precocious Roderick was third in a juvenile stakes at Keeneland.

Although Chasethegold (Touch Gold) and her daughter Goldrush Girl each earned a graded placing, the third and fourth dams anchor the family’s class.

Like Cayla, Rodriguez’s third dam, Chasethewildwind (Forty Niner), didn’t own blacktype, but she bore a pair of graded winners and sires: Albertus Maximus and Daredevil.

Albertus Maximus won a trio of graded stakes, including the 2008 Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile, plus the Donn Handicap (G1), renamed the Pegasus International World Cup.

Daredevil captured the Champagne (G1) and is better known as the sire of Swiss Skydiver, who bested Authentic by a neck in the Preakness, dashing his Triple Crown homes. Daredevil also sired Shedaresthedevil, who, in a thrilling edition of the 2020 Kentucky Oaks, beat Swiss Skydiver by 1 1/2 lengths while setting a new stakes record of 1:48.28 for 1 1/8 miles.  

Rodriguez’s fourth dam is Grade 1 heroine Race The Wild Wind (Sunny’s Halo), whose descendants include a pair of Grade 1-winning sprinter-milers, Here Comes Ben and Dayoutoftheoffice. The latter placed in the 2020 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies.

Damsire

Cherokee Run (Runaway Groom - Cherokee Dame, by Silver Saber) carried his speed 1 1/8 miles in the Dwyer (G2) and was second in the 1993 Preakness. As an older horse, he found his niche as a sprinter and captured the 1994 Breeders’ Cup Sprint, cinching that year’s Eclipse Award in the sprint division.   

Cherokee Run passed his speed along to his offspring, including 1999 champion 2-year-old filly Chilukki and 2007 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile hero and juvenile champ War Pass.

As a damsire, Cherokee Run sired 50 stakes winners, mainly sprinter-milers, and two stakes winners at 1 1/8 miles, Rodriguez and Deeply Undervalued, winner of the Commonwealth Derby (G2) over the Laurel Park lawn.

Kentucky Derby winner or pretender?

Since 2013, not counting 2020, when the Wood Memorial wasn’t contested, the best finish by a Wood winner in the Derby was Tactius, who was third in 2019. 2014 and 2015 produced a pair of fourth-place finishers, Wicked Strong and Frosted. The last horse to pull off the double was Fusaichi Pegasus in 2000, although Empire Maker gave it his best shot and finished second as the favorite in 2003.

Rodriguez is professional. He has no excessive leg movement, switches leads and stays in his lane. He’s athletic and can cut the corner while on the rail.

Considered by many fans as a second stringer from the Baffert barn, Rodriguez’s past performances suggest he’s a need-the-lead type. Except for his career highlight 101 late-pace Brisnet figure in the Wood Memorial, Rodriguez’s figures are in the mid to high 80s, and his overall performance ratings hover in the 90s.

Rodriguez’s best performance was the Wood Memorial, where he raced without blinkers and was allowed to set the pace. He relaxed on the lead and turned back a pair of challenges by Captain Cook and Grande.

The only other time he entered the winner’s circle was after graduating in a maiden event in January after setting the pace. Otherwise, although he’s never finished worse than third, he’s been kept off the pace and lost ground in the stretch against Journalism and Citizen Bull.  

None of Rodriguez’s Wood Memorial rivals were graded winners, so his class is questionable. Perhaps the dark bay colt will get brave as the Kentucky Derby pacesetter, but he might have company on the front end. Rodriguez reminds me of another Baffert underdog, Medina Spirit, who chased his celebrated stablemate Life Is Good through the Derby preps until a front-running score, later disqualified, in Kentucky.