Breeders' Cup to 2019 Kentucky Derby: 3 horses to watch
Each year, seemingly without fail, the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile winner is named the future favorite for the following year’s Kentucky Derby. This time around, the appropriately named Game Winner kept his perfect record intact and cemented his place at the top of the list of the 2019 Kentucky Derby hopefuls.
Game Winner’s pedigree indicates that he’ll handle 1 1/4 miles. He has the talent and is in the hands of two-time Triple Crown-winning trainer Bob Baffert, plus you can read more about Game Winner’s pedigree and conformation.
But a lot can happen in five months, so let’s not name Game Winner the Kentucky Derby hero just yet. Here are three other up-and-coming colts from Breeders’ Cup Friday to watch for next year’s Kentucky Derby preps.
Knicks Go (Paynter - Kosmo's Buddy, by Outflanker) pressed the quick pace set by Complexity, inherited the lead when that one folded, then staggered down the stretch of the Juvenile. Knicks Go tried to put up a fight but was no match for Game Winner. His second crop sire, Paynter, has produced no stakes winners beyond 1 1/16 miles, although one is stakes placed at 1 1/8 miles over the lawn. Paynter just missed owning the 2012 Belmont Stakes, so eventually he should sire winners at classic distances. Knicks Go’s distaff line is decidedly speed-oriented. His dam excelled as a turf sprinter, and her half-sister bore a stakes winning sprinter. Knicks Go’s damsire’s progeny haven’t won stakes past 1 1/16 miles. Knicks Go could feature in early Derby preps but may find distance limitations.
Improbable (City Zip - Rare Event, by A.P. Indy) dominated the one-mile Street Sense Stakes by 7 1/4 lengths on the Breeders’ Cup Friday undercard. The stablemate of Game Winner also has an uncanny resemblance to Justify. The late City Zip sired few winners past 1 1/8 miles, with Collected his highest-earning son, and most of them are turf runners. Improbable’s pedigree indicates that winning at 1 1/4 miles is an improbability, but the colt’s class, mental determination, and connections may take him that far.
Uncle Benny (Declaration of War - Celebrity Cat, by Storm Cat) does possess a turf-oriented pedigree and placed second in the Juvenile Turf, bested a half-length after a rough start. However, that was Uncle Benny’s second try over the lawn and first time running two turns. The bay colt previously won his debut and the listed Belmont Futurity sprinting. He's conditioned by Jason Servis, who earlier this year got Firenze Fire to the Derby. Uncle Benny’s distaff line shows why he takes to dirt. His second dam Starrer, a multiple graded stakes-winning daughter of Dynaformer, was successful from 6 1/2 furlongs to 1 1/8 miles on dirt. Starrer is a half-sister to multiple graded stakes heroine Stellar Jayne. Uncle Benny’s second-crop sire was a high weight older horse in England, Ireland and Europe, but he also finished third, with only a a nose and head separating the top three, in the thrilling 2013 Breeders’ Cup Classic. It's true that the majority of Declaration of War's offspring are pointed to the turf, but the stallion has some progeny who prefer dirt. Whatever surface he winds up on, keep an eye on Uncle Benny.
Breeders’ Cup to
Kentucky Derby
To put these talented colts' Kentucky Derby chances in perspective, half of the last 10 Derby heroes didn’t run
in a stakes race as 2-year-olds. The
date ranges of maiden victories varied from April (California Chrome) to November
(Orb), with three getting the job done in August. Two (Always Dreaming, Justify)
didn’t win until their 3-year-old
debuts. Of course, we know that Justify didn’t race at all as a juvenile.
Six of the last 10 Kentucky Derby winners were stabled or prepped out West, so there’s a strong possibility that one of the three mentioned above will be a serious Kentucky Derby contender come May 4.
Editor's note: This article previously indicated Uncle Benny made his first start on turf in the Breeders' Cup. Belmont's Futurity, however, ran on turf this year. The article has been corrected.