2012 Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf - Developing Patterns

Since it's inception in 2008, the one mile Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf has been contested only four times, but there is already patterns developing in the race. Let's take a look at what the winners have in common.
 

Past Winners:
2009 Maram
2010 Tapitsfly
2011 More Than Real
2012 Stephanie's Kitten

 
Prep Races:
Two contests stand out as key factors in the Juvenile Fillies Turf. The 1 1/16 mile Miss Grillo Stakes (G-3) on the Belmont lawn was won by 2008 Juvenile Fillies Turf heroine Maram. The following year, Tapitsfly placed in the Miss Grillo before earning a victory in the Juvenile Fillies Turf. The 2008 and 2009 Breeders' Cup events were held at Santa Anita.

The 2010 and 2011 Breeders' Cups were contested at Churchill Downs. The one mile Natalma (G-3) over the Woodbine green was instrumental in the victories of the next two Juvenile Fillies Turf winners. More Than Real placed second in the Natalma (G-3) in 2010 before succeeding in the Juvenile Fillies Turf. Last year, Stephanie's Kitten was third in the Natalma. Stephanie's Kitten squeezed in a victory in the Alcibiades (G-1) over the Keeneland Polytrack before posting her win in the Juvenile Fillies Turf.
 

Number of starts before the Juvenile Fillies Turf:
2009 Maram: 2 – entered the Juvenile Fillies Turf undefeated.
2010 Tapitsfly: 6 – needed 4 starts to win her maiden.
2011 More Than Real: 2 – the Juvenile Fillies Turf was her second and last victory.
2012 Stephanie's Kitten: 4 - the only winner to have a prep race in mid-October.
 

Running Styles:
2009 - Starting from post position 3, Maram sat mid-pack before unleasing a three-wide move in the stretch to run down the favorite in deep stretch. Maram won by a nose over another closer, the European filly Heart Shaped. The favorite Laragh was third.
 

2010 - Tapitsfly rushed from post 10 to press the pace setter Rose Catherine before challenging that filly in the stretch. The two dueled to the wire with Tapitsfly prevailing by ½ length. The favorite Lilly Langtree never fired and finished eighth.
 

2011 - Breaking from the 11 post at Churchill Downs, More Than Real sat four wide in fifth place for much of the race. She got the jump on the favorite Winter Memories. Using that tactic to her advantage, More Than Real drew clear in the stretch to win by two lengths over that rival.
 

2012 - Stephanie's Kitten broke from post 5, rated in fifth place before making her move in the stretch to get up by ¾ length over the pace setter Stopshoppingmaria. The favorite, Elusive Kate raced wide and placed ninth.
 
 

Three of the four Juvenile Fillies Turf heroines raced in mid-pack before making their moves in the stretch. Post position didn't seem to matter.
 

Payouts:
All four fillies paid double digits to win. In all but one instance, the favorite for the Juvenile Fillies Turf finished out of the money.
2009 Maram: $24.20
2010 Tapitsfly: $21.60
2011 More Than Real: $29.20
2012 Stephanie's Kitten: $14.20
 

How the Europeans fared:
One would think that the European Fillies would have had an impact in the Juvenile Fillies Turf.

In 2009, three European fillies contested the Juvenile Fillies Turf. Heart Shaped placed second, beaten a bare head. The other two finished second to last and last.

A year later, only two fillies who last raced overseas contested the Juvenile Fillies Turf. The favorite, Lilly Langtry was eighth while Junia Tepzia was last.

Hopping for a better result In 2010 at Churchill Downs, four fillies traveled from Europe to Juvenile Fillies Turf. They finished fifth, seventh, eleventh and last.

Last year, three fillies braved the trip from Europe. The best placing was by the Irish-bred Up, who was fourth, bested by barely two lengths. The others fished eighth and last.

Perhaps this year we'll see a better result from the Euros. For the first time, no Salix or Lasix will be allowed for the juveniles. The Europeans are used to running without race-day medication, so this may be to their advantage.
 

Pedigree Notes:
Given the predominance of Northern Dancer and Raise A Native bloodlines in America, it is no surprise to see the following.

Three of the four Juvenile Fillies Turf heroines (Tapitsfly, More Than Real, Stephanie's Kitten) are out of mares by a Northern Dancer sire line stallion.

Two fillies (Maram, More Than Real) were sired by a Raise A Native stallion (Mr. Prospector & Halo).
 

Horses to Watch:
There are still prep races scheduled. At this point, it's anyone's guess how the race will shape up. Below are stakes winners whose ultimate goal could logically be the Juvenile Fillies Turf.
 

Sky Lantern (Red Clubs – Shawanni, by Shareef Dancer) was successful in the seven furlong Moyglare Stud Stakes (G-1) at the Curragh in Ireland. The Irish-bred filly has a 5-3-2-0 (£166,822) record. Sky Lantern has placed in a listed stakes and two Group 3 events before winning the Moyglare. Sky Lantern is a half sister to three stakes winners and a stakes placed runner. She's the most accomplished of her dam's offspring.

Spring Venture (Spring At Last – Zahwah, by Rahy) was sent off as the favorite in the Natalma Stakes (G-3) at Woodbine after dominating maidens by over four lengths in her debut. The daughter of first crop sire Spring At Last raced in mid-pack in the Natalma. She took over in the stretch to win going away by 1 ¾ lengths. Spring Venture is the first stakes winner out of her dam. All of her half siblings are fillies. One is stakes placed. There is some precocious quality in this distaff line. Spring Venture's dam Zahwah was third in the Arlington-Washington Lassie (G-3). She is a half sister to La Prevoyante Handicap (G-2) heroine Krisada. A half brother, Conte Di Savoya set a new track record at Sam Houston and was fourth in the 1992 Kentucky Derby. Another half sister produced the multiple stakes turf veteran Rahystrada and Bashford Manor (G-3) winner Lone Sky. The second dam Funistrada was second in the Frizette (G-1) and was fourth in the BC Juvenile Fillies.

Always Kitten (Kitten's Joy – Misinformer, by Dynaformer) won the Happy Ticket Stakes, going a mile over the Louisiana Downs turf course on September 8 by 1 ½ lengths. Always Kitten is the third foal and first stakes winner produced by her dam. Always Kitten's full brother Don't Tell Kitten currently has a career as a claiming class runner. Other than Always Kitten, there is no other blacktype in the first two generations of the distaff family. It wouldn't be a Breeders' Cup turf race without a Kitten! Always Kitten's trainer Mike Maker is pointing the filly to the Darley Alcibiades with the main goal of the Juvenile Fillies Turf.

Funfair (More Than Ready – Fleuron, by Distant View) has won both starts, including the Colleen Stakes, by a combined seven lengths. The Cristophe Clement trainee has a pedigree tailored for the Breeders' Cup. She's the first stakes winner produced by her dam. Fleuron is a half sister to the multiple graded stakes winner Dynever, who was third in the Breeders' Cup Classic. Their half brother Ittasak was also third in the Classic. A half sister, Flagrant, produced Breeders' Cup Mile hero Furthest Land. We may see Funfair contest the Miss Grillo as a prep for the Juvenile Fillies Turf.

Gold Edge Eddington - Gold Spike, by Pioneering) notched her third win in as many starts with a professional victory in the Arlington Washington Lassie (G-3). The Lon Wiggins trainee was up on the lead in the early stages of the race, but jockey Chris Emigh wisely eased Gold Edge off of a strong pace to sit fourth. She came on again in the stretch to beat the pace setter, La Song, by a neck. Dancinginthecircle was a nose back in third. Gold Edge is the first foal produced by her dam. Gold Spike didn't earn any blacktype, but she's a veteran of 56 races, finishing in the money 27 times. She's a half to a stakes placed runner and a half sister produced a listed stakes winner, but otherwise, there is no other blacktype in the immediate female family. Gold Edge may contest the Darley Alcibiades in her next start.

La Song (Unbridled's Song - Yachats, by Forest Camp) made all of the pace in the Arlington Washington Lassie (G-3) and just missed holding off Gold Edge. The pretty gray La Song finished between Gold Edge and Dancinginthecircle in a photo finish. La Song is the first foal produced by her stakes placed dam. This is a nice female family. Yachats is a half sister to the multiple stakes winners You're Bluffing and Nacho Friend. A half sister bore Hopeful (G-1) and Amsterdam Stakes (G-2) hero Currency Swap. The second dam Yournotlistening is a Grade 3 winner. The Darley Alcibiades or Jessamine Stakes would be a logical next step for La Song.

Dancinginthecircle (Divine Park - Allude, by Orientate) came up the inside of the Arlington Washington Lassie, missing the win by a scant neck and nose in only her second start. She gave away experience to Gold Edge and La Song and was nearest the rail in a three-way photo. Dancinginthecircle is the first graded stakes horse for her first crop sire, Met Mile hero Divine Park. She's also the first stakes runner for her dam Allude, who placed twice in stakes. The second dam Ed's Holy Cow is a half sister to Horse of the Year Holy Bull. We may see Dancinginthecircle renew her rivalry with Gold Edge and La Song at Keeneland.

Upcoming Races:
There are five “Win and You're In” Preps for the Juvenile Fillies Turf. Two have been contested so far.

September 9 – Moyglare Stakes (Gr. 1) Curragh. Winner: Sky Lantern

September 15 – Natalma Stakes (G-3) Woodbine. Winner: Spring Venture

September 28 – Shadwell Fillies' Mile (Gr. 1) Newmarket

October 8 – Miss Grillo Stakes (G-3) Belmont

October 11 – J.P. Morgan Chase Jessamine Stakes (G-3) Keeneland

The Darley Alcibiades (G-1) on October 5 at Keeneland is a “Win And You're In” prep for the Juvenile Fillies over the dirt, but the race usually produces entrants for the Juvenile Fillies Turf.

We'll check back after the Jessamine Stakes with more fillies to watch and a recap of the prep races for the Juvenile Fillies Turf.
 

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