Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies - Preview & Selections

A full field of fourteen two-year-olds with one also-eligible have been entered in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies.  This race is an enigma wrapped in a conundrum.  A case can be made for or against just about every contender. The fillies with stakes earnings have taken turns beating each other and three youngsters are facing winners for the first time. Let’s toss in the fact that five of the entrants are coming off of a race over an off track. So where does that leave us?  In a race like this, recent form and running style are the keys.  A few of these fillies won’t care for the distance, but pedigree wise, most of them should have the lungs to handle 1 1/16 miles. Some are late bloomers and this field could produce a Kentucky Oaks winner.

I reviewed the Juvenile Fillies strengths/weaknesses for most of the field in a previous article.

Let’s decipher Saturday’s Breeders’ Cup head-scratcher, possibly one of many tough races to handicap.

FEATHERED  – didn’t do much running in a sloppy Frizette. However, she flashed a 106 late pace speed figure against maidens in her previous start against sprinters.  By Indian Charlie out of a Dynaformer mare, there’s no doubt that she can handle the distance. She’s the OTHER Pletcher horse and likely to be ignored.  Exotics.

ANGELA RENEE  – has a strong win over the surface/distance.  Pletcher is 0-11 in this race, but tried something new by giving To Honor And Serve’s little sister a prep here instead of shipping in.  She’s the favorite and the obvious one to beat.  

DANETTE – a distant third in the Chandelier in her first try on dirt. She’s still a maiden. Toss.

CONQUEST ECLIPSE - dropped back on the rail in the Chandelier and wasn’t asked for run until the eighth pole.  She wasn’t going to catch Angela Renee, but this was a strong prep race and she came out of that race with a bullet breeze.  Very dangerous contender.

CRISTINA'S JOURNEY  – Winner of the Pocahontas, she’s undefeated, but has only two starts under her girth and she’s coming in off of a 56 day lay-off. Given her previous performances, she’ll probably be on the pace.  The Dale Roman’s trainee breezed a strong 5F bullet in her second to last work at Santa Anita. She hasn’t faced this caliber of fillies and doesn’t have much experience This might be asking a lot off of that layoff.  She might hit the board just off of natural talent. Exotics.

TAKE CHARGE BRANDI – She’s been pounded in her last three starts after contesting the early pace.  The Lukas trainee will do her best running early and will start to back up after a half. She has a turf pedigree. Put her there.  Toss.

MAJESTIC PRESENCE – follows the same pattern as Conquest Eclipse, except this Hollendorfer trainee was a non-threatening fourth in the Chandelier after going three and four wide the entire race from the 11 post.  Have to respect the trainer/jock combo, but the daughter of Majestic Warrior appears up against it here.  Maybe with a good trip she’ll hit the exotics.

PUCA  – This is an interesting horse.  The late-bloomer destroyed maidens by 16 lengths in her last race, which was her maiden victory. Her speed figures have improved by almost ten points in each start. No last out maiden has won the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile filly. Mott wouldn’t put her here if he didn’t think she belonged. Puca fired a pre-race bullet, but at Belmont.  She might be worth a play underneath.

HENNYTHELOVEPENNY – also an open length last out maiden winner, but against sprinters just 20 days ago.  Came back with a bullet breeze, but this is asking a lot. Pass.

WONDER GAL – the late running filly was up for second in the Frizette stagger-fest. Previously, she was third in the Adirondack after some trouble. The late running filly would need the perfect trip from post 10 to pull off a win.  Last year’s Santa Anita strip was hard for closers to make any headway. If it changes any, Wonder Gal could gallop into exotic contention, but I’m going to pass on her.

TOP DECILE – has a more powerful closing kick than Wonder Gal.  The Al Stall trainee just missed by ½ length in the Alcibiades after chasing blazing early fractions.  Previously, Top Decile won on the lead, so this filly could sit anywhere. The main drawback is having to overcome the 11 post. If she runs with them early, she’ll go wide.  If she drops back, she’ll have to overcome the typical speed-favoring track bias. Tough call.  Have to consider her to hit the board.  Contender.   

BY THE MOON - waded home in the Frizette in a slow 1:39 2/5 over a sloppy track. She grabbed the lead early on and outlasted a slowly gaining Wonder Gal.  This will be By The Moon’s first try going two turns, but her pace pressing running style from post 12 isn’t ideal. Pass.

SELECTIONS:

Pace Scenario: Take Charge Brandi, Cristina’s Journey, and Hennythelovepenny may create an early speed duel to see who wants to lead. Feathered and Angela Renee will have to be near those three to get a good position from the inside. Top Decile and By the Moon will have to go wide or take back.  Conquest Eclipse, Majestic Presence, and Puca should get good stalking trips.  

The Play:  This is a tough, wide open race.  There are two fillies with a strong shot of winning and about five others who all have a legit chance of hitting the board if they get the right trip.  The #4 & #2 look like the strongest horses in the field.  You can either throw a lot of money at the field in hopes of hitting a bomb, or be conservative and take home a modest payout.  How adventurous are you?

#4 Conquest Eclipse - Win

#2 Angela Renee  Win

Key with:

#8 Puca

#5 Cristina’s Journey

#7 Majestic Presence

#11 Top Decile 

#1 Feathered