Breeders' Cup Juvenile analysis: 20-1 long shot gets top billing

A dozen 2-year-old colts will vie for a $2 million purse in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile, carded as Friday's ninth race, with a 7:50 p.m. EDT post time.

The winner of the 2021 Breeders' Cup Juvenile will not only gallop off into the sunset with a pretty wreath of flowers, he will earn year-end championship honors and be installed as the favorite for the 2022 Kentucky Derby. 

Two-year-olds are all about promise and anticipation, making the Juvenile one of the highlights of the day's competitions. This year, the most accomplished babies in the East, Midwest, and West will fight it out for a spot in fans' hearts and a place in Breeders' Cup history.

Let's tease out possible winners and logical long shots.

12. Corniche  (5-2) has never been seriously tested by the California contingent. The Bob Baffert trainee has won both starts impressively, including the American Pharoah (G1) over Pappacap and Oviatt Class.

Corniche hopes to travel in the hoofprints of Game Winner, who won the 2018 Juvenile after graduating at first asking and winning the American Pharoah (G1). In his Oct. 23 breeze, Corniche showed a willingness to pass other horses when he came upon an unrelated pair in front of him. This is an excellent sign, should he not gain the early lead in the Juvenile.

Pedigree: (Quality Road - Wasted Tears, by Najran) Corniche has a middle distance pedigree, and his conformation suggests that classic distances may be within his scope. He has high knee action and a strong turf pedigree, giving him options if his Kentucky Derby dreams don't pan out. His dam Wasted Tears is a multiple graded-winning, track-record setting turf miler. Win contender.

5. Double Thunder (20-1) finished a game second in the Breeders' Futurity (G1) after breaking a step slow, weaving through traffic, and spinning five-wide around the turn. Previously, the Todd Pletcher trainee captured the Bashford Manor (G3) and the Sapling Stakes; however, neither stake was a key race.

Nevertheless, Double Thunder showed the ability to overcome trouble in a large field, which is a valuable trait in the Juvenile, plus he adds blinkers and gets a jock switch from Paco Lopez to Flaven Prat.  

Pedigree: Double Thunder (Super Saver - Rattataptap, by Tapit) has a middle-distance/classic pedigree. Three of Super Saver's stakes winners, Letruska, Happy Saver, and Embellish the Lace, have won at 10 furlongs. Double Thunder's dam is a Grade 3-placed miler. His dam's full siblings are graded-placed sprinter/milers. Double Thunder's second dam Sindy With An S is a Grade 3 winning sprinter. Win contender.

10. Commandperformance  (5-1) closed swiftly in both starts to snag second place, including the Champagne Stakes (G1). The Todd Pletcher trainee's final furlong of 13.13 seconds was faster than the winner, Jack Christopher. Still a maiden, time will tell whether the pretty gray colt is the type that puts in a good stretch run and seldom wins or if he'll improve with racing.  

Pedigree: Commandperformance (Union Rags - Smitten, by Tapit) could handle nine to ten furlongs. His dam finished third in the 2013 Silverbulletday Stakes, and two of her half-siblngs have sprinter blacktye earnings. The third generation of the family includes includes Blind Date and Sales Tax, multiple stakes winners from seven to nine furlongs over dirt and turf. Live long shot.

3. Oviatt Class  (20-1) was left with too much to do in the American Pharoah Stakes (G1). Eleven lengths back at one point, the one-run closer made up eight lengths through the stretch, passing tired horses to just miss second-place by a half-length.

Oviatt Class's Oct. 23 breeze at Santa Anita left much to be desired. He was pushed through the stretch to pass the unplaced maiden Miss Everything to get five furlongs in 1:00.20. Desormeaux and Desormeaux teamed up in the Juvenile to win the 2014 edition with Texas Red. However, Oviatt Class has zero early speed, and he needs to stay closer in the Juvenile to have any shot.

Pedigree: Oviatt Class (Bernardini - Occasionally, by Tiznow) has classic breeding. His dam is a full sister to Demoiselle (G2) winner Tizahit, who bore the swift sprinter/miler Come Dancing, winner of the 2019 Ballerina (G1), and three other graded stakes. Oviatt Class' third-generation includes champions Essential Quality and Folklore.  Live long shot.

1. Jack Christopher  (9-5) poured it on in the Champagne Stakes, taking over from a retreating Gunnite and easily holding off the closing Commandperformance by 2 3/4 lengths. However, the Chad Brown trainee's final furlong was a poky 13.54 seconds. Since 2011, no horse breaking from the rail has finished in the money.

Pedigree: Jack Christopher (Munnings - Rushin No Blushin, by Half Ours) has the muscular, bulky conformation of a sprinter, and his pedigree is speed-oriented. Although he showed the ability to rate in the Champagne and should get a ground-saving stalking trip from post one, Jack Christopher needs to handle this two-turn test. He reminds me of last year's favorite, Jackie's Warrior. Toss.

9. Pinehurst  (8-1) was never challenged in the Del Mar Futurity (G1), having it his own way on the front end and galloping home by 4 1/2 lengths. The Bob Baffert trainee skipped the American Pharoah (G1) to train up for the Juvenile. Pinehurst looked good during his Oct. 24 breeze at Santa Anita, breezing with the older Grade 2-winning filly, As Time Goes By. Pinehurst appeared very relaxed early but was pushed before the wire to stay with the filly, who moved easier. The pair were timed for a minute flat for five furlongs, and it was an impressive breeze for the young, lightly raced colt.

Pinehurst has been off for 60 days, and while he's recorded a series of five furlongs works, fitness against this quality field while trying two turns for the first time is a concern.

Pedigree: Pinehurst (Twirling Candy - Giant Win, by Giant's Causeway) has classic conformation and breeding. Twirling Candy's son Rombauer won this year's Preakness Stakes, and Pinehurst traces to Win Crafty Lady, whose descendants include multiple Grade 1 winner Harmony Lodge and Arkansas Derby winners Graeme Hall and Magnum Moon. Exotics.

6. American Sanctuary (30-1) has found trouble in his last three starts. He had to steady behind horses just after the start of the Futurity (G1), forcing him back to last place. Then, after a ground-saving rail trip around the turn, American Sanctuary didn't find running room until mid-stretch but still managed to gain fourth place. American Sanctuary is multiple stakes placed, has a long ground-eating stride, and if new jock Florent Geroux can keep him out of trouble, the Chris Davis trainee could surprise.

Pedigree: American Sanctuary (American Freedom - Haven's Honey, by E Dubai)  has a miler-middle distance pedigree. He is a member of American Freedom's first crop, and American Sanctuary's dam is multiple stakes placed at 1 1/16 miles. His distaff line includes Grade 1 winning sprinter Mayo on the Side and last year's San Pasqual (G2) winner Midcourt. Lower exotics long shot.

2. Jasper Great (15-1) wired the field by 10 lengths in his debut over maidens at Hanshin, traveling 1,800 meters. Trainer Hideyuki Mori has experience with shipping last-out maiden winners to compete against more experienced foes. In 2019, he brought the turf sprinter Full Flat, who gained ground from the back of the pack to miss fourth place by a neck at odds of 89-1.

Pedigree: Jasper Great (Arrogate - Shop Again, by Wild Again) has classic breeding. He is a member of the first crop of 2016 Breeders' Cup Classic winner Arrogate out of a stakes-winning sprinter. His half-brother Power Broker won the 2012 Frontrunner, the Indiana Derby (G3), and placed second in the Haskell (G1). His distaff line includes Grade 1 winner Miss Shop, plus Grade 2 winner and sire Trappe Shot. Lower exotics long shot.

4. Pappacap (15-1) looked like a good thing beating Finneus by 4 3/4 lengths in the Best Pal (G2). However, his last two results, a tired fourth place in the Del Mar Futurity and a struggling second in the American Pharoah (G1) show that he needs more improvement to be a factor.

Pedigree: Pappacap (Gun Runner - Pappascat, by Scat Daddy) has the pedigree and conformation to handle two turns. He is out of Grade 3-placed Pappascat, a winner at 1 1/8-miles over the lawn. Perhaps a try on turf is in his future. Toss.

11. Tough to Tame (30-1) lived up to his moniker in the Iroquois Stakes, becoming rank after having to tap on the brakes behind horses. He raced with his head sideways, was wide around the turn and drifted out, all the while gradually closing to finish second, beaten a neck. Green but game.

Pedigree: Tough to Tame (Speightster - She'sa Tough Tiger, by Tiger Ridge) has a sprinter/miler pedigree. Second crop sire Speightster is a Grade 3-winning miler. Tough to Tame's dam is a half-sister to a stakes-winning sprinter, and his third dam is a stakes-winning sprinter. Toss.

7.  Giant Game (30-1) graduated in his second start, a 1 1/16-mile maiden event at Keeneland in front-running style. One runner from that race returned to finish second next out. Dale Romans has entered some nice horses in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile over the years, including Brody's Cause, who was third in 2015, and Not This Time, who missed by a head in 2016. However, all 10 of Romans' previous entries had faced winners before heading to the Breeders' Cup.

Pedigree: Giant Game (Giant's Causeway - Game for More, by More Than Ready)  has a classic-oriented pedigree, and turf could be an option down the road. His half-brother Isotherm is a multiple-graded winner on turf from 1 1/16 miles to 1 1/8 miles, and he was third in the 2018 Awesome Again Stakes (G1) on dirt. Giant Game's half-sister is graded placed from a mile to 1 1/8 miles, including a third-place finish in the Acorn (G1). Toss.

8.  Barossa (10-1)  is brought to you by the same connections as Pinehurst. He improved in his second start at Del Mar to finish a distant third, bested 5 1/4 lengths by Oviatt Class in a one-mile maiden event. Nineteen days ago, Barossa won next out at the same level by a half-length at Santa Anita. In 2013, last-out maiden winner New Year's Day, also conditioned by Baffert, won the Juvenile. However, he had won his second start convincingly at Del Mar. Barossa was beaten twice at Del Mar by a combined 25 lengths.  

Pedigree: Barossa (Into Mischief - Bouquet Booth, by Flower Alley) has a miler/middle distance pedigree. His dam is a Grade 3 winning miler. The class in his distaff line skips to the third generation, and includes Belmont Stakes hero Tonalist, multiple Grade 1-winning turf router Riskaverse, and 2011 Horse of the Year and Champion Older Female, Havre de Grace. Toss.

Analysis

All three Baffert horses, Corniche, Pinehurst and Barossa, won as pacesetters. Toss Jack Christopher, Jasper Great and Giant Game into the mix, and we are looking at a lively pace. However, the rail is often dead during Del Mar's opening week, so outside speed may prevail.

Corniche has a high cruising speed, and I liked what I saw when he targeted an unrelated pair in front of him during a morning work. He may be used early to grab the lead, but I believe he could be just as effective if asked to settled a few lengths back.

Double Thunder has enough speed to stay closer to the pace; he won his 4 1/2 furlong debut after dueling on the lead. He overcame trouble to close for second place in the Breeders' Futurity and could receive a better trip under Flavien Prat.

Commandperformance would be a win contender if he weren't still a maiden. He'll certainly appreciate the extra distance.

5. Double Thunder (20-1)

12. Corniche (5-2)

10. Commandperformance (5-1)

3. Oviatt Class (20-1)