Breeders' Cup 2022: Historic Keys to the Juvenile Fillies
The Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies is a lucrative play for exotics. In the last 22 years, the favorite has won 11 times. However, in the last decade, she won only twice but placed second through fourth five times.
Breeders' Cup Champions and the Kentucky Oaks
The winner of the Fillies is guaranteed to win year-end honors; however, since 2000, only four have contested the Oaks. Beholder (2012) finished second, and last year's champ Echo Zulu was fourth this year. In fact, only two fillies, Open Mind (1988) and Silverbulletday (1998) have completed the Breeders' Cup/Kentucky Oaks double.Notes about Keeneland
How Keeneland's surfaces play in the weeks leading up to the Breeders' Cup will indicate winning running styles. The Keeneland stretch to the first finish pole (1 1/16 miles) is 1,236 feet.
Keeneland 2015 & 2020 Recap
The previous two Juvenile Fillies winners at Keeneland enjoyed a speed-favoring surface. In 2020, the winner, third, and fourth-place finishers were close to the pace, and the pacesetter finished second. In the 2015 edition, Songbird wired the field, while the second and fourth-place finishers were pressers. Dothraki Queen closed for third.
BREEDERS' CUP JUVENILE FILLIES AT A GLANCE
1 1/16 Miles
2022 Breeders' Cup Challenge Winners
Frizette Stakes (G1) — Chocolate Gelato
Chandelier (G2) — And Tell Me Nolies
Alcibiades (G1) — Wonder Wheel
Breeders' Cup Challenge Event Previous Results
Prep Races:
15 Juvenile Fillies winners won their final prep.
2 winners finished worse than fourth in their final prep.
8 Frizette Stakes (G1)
5 Chandelier Stakes (G2) (previously the Oak Leaf)
3 Alcibiades Stakes (G1)
1 My Dear Girl (R)
1 Summer Stakes (G2)
1 Matron (G1)
1 Del Mar Debutante (G1)
1 Arlington-Washington Lassie (G3)
1 prepped an allowance race.
2020: Winner Vequist was second in the Frizette Stakes (G1).
Second-place finisher won the Frizette Stakes (G1).
Third-place finisher Girl Daddy won the Pocahontas Stakes (G3).
Payouts:
Average win payout: $27.42
Lowest: $3.20 Songbird (2015)
Highest: $125.40 Take Charge Brandi (2014)
Favorite:
9 percent Place
9 percent Show
Last to win: Echo Zulu (2021)
Second Favorite:
19 percent Place
9 percent Show
Last to win: British Idiom (2019)
0 percent Win
4 percent Place
14 percent Show
2020:The first and second favorites failed to hit the board.
2015: The first and second favorites completed the exacta.
Post 1 — 3 winners
Post 3 — 2 winners
Post 4 — 2 winners
Post 6 — 4 winners
Post 9 — 3 winners
Post 10 — 3 winners
Posts 7,8,12, and 14 — One each
No winners from post 5 or 11.
Rail: The rail is the kiss of death. Only three have won in the last 22 years, and Beholder (2012) was the last however, seven total have won since the race's inception.
Keeneland:
2020: winner broke from post 6, second place from post 3, and third place from post 5 in a 7-horse field.
2015: winner broke from post 10, second place from post 9, and third place from post 8 in a 10-horse field.
Winning Style – determined by position at the half-mile:
8 Pacesetter –wired the field.
8 Pressers
6 Closers
Pacesetters accounted for four runner-up finishes and two third-place finishes.
Pressers finished second twelve times and third seven times.
Closers were second six times, and a whopping 13 finished third.
2020 — Winner pressed. Second place set, third place pressed.
2015 — Winner set, second place pressed, third place closed.
Previous Starts:
8 had 3 previous starts.
8 had 4 previous starts.
2 had 5 previous starts.
1 had 6 previous starts.
Trainers
(from 1984 to 2021)
The More is Better Club
Wayne Lukas is noted for training champion fillies. Since the Juvenile Filles' inception, he has had a total of 44 starters with a 6-4-3 record, the most of any trainer. His latest victory was with huge longshot Take Charge Brandi in 2014.
Bob Baffert has 25 starters with a 2-5-4 record.
Steve Asmussen has 2 wins from 6 starters.
Claude (Shug) McGaughey won twice from 9 starters.
Brad Cox won and placed with both starters.
Wayne Catalano won with two of three starters.
Richard Mandella won with three of five starts.
Eoin Harty each won and placed with two of three starters.
Ken McPeek is 0 for 16. Three contenders each have filled out second and third place.
Todd Pletcher has saddled 14 starters. None have won, but 4 were second, and 2 were third.
Mark Casse is right behind Pletcher with 13 starters, with one each finishing second and third.
John Velazquez has a 2-3-5 record from 18 starters, the most starters of any jockey in Juvenile Fillies history.
Mike Smith and Joel Rosario have ridden a dozen mounts each and are tied for the most wins in history with three.
Smith's record is 12-3-2-4, and Rosario 12-3-0-1.
Handicappers are savvy people. Favorites hit the board 70 percent of the time, while the second favorites place 19 percent and third favorites show 14 percent.
Pacesetters and pressers prevail 72 percent of the time, while closers are 59 percent more likely to complete the trifecta.
Ten of the last 22 winners entered the Juvenile Fillies with a perfect record, and the majority had between 3 and 4 starts. 36 percent prepped in either the Frizette or Chandelier Stakes.