Breeders' Cup 2022: Historic keys to the Juvenile
Anything can and does happen in the Breeder's Cup Juvenile. Twenty-two percent of the favorites have won, and the average win payout in the last 22 years was $22.72. In fact, all but seven winners in that timeframe offered a double-digit return.
Breeders' Cup champions and the Triple Crown
A Breeders' Cup victory doesn't automatically earn designation as the champion 2-year-old. Five winners were passed over for championship honors. Of the 17 champs crowned, 10 were undefeated.
The Juvenile winner is promoted as the early favorite for the next year's Kentucky Derby, so let's see whether the hype is warranted.
Eleven Juvenile winners never made it to the Kentucky Derby starting gate, proving how hard it is for 2-year-olds to stay at the top of the leaderboard as 3-year-olds.
Street Sense (2005) and Nyquist (2015) pulled off the Juvenile-Kentucky Derby double.
Juvenile winner Good Magic placed second in the Derby and is the only Juvenile winner to finish second or third.
Two Juvenile winners hit the board in the Preakness Stakes; Classic Empire (2016) was second and Nyquist (2015) finished third.
The 2020 2-year-old champ, Essential Quality, placed fourth in the Derby and won the Belmont Stakes. He is the only Breeders' Cup Juvenile winner to contest the Belmont Stakes in the last decade.
Notes about Keeneland
How Keeneland's surfaces play in the weeks leading up to the Breeders' Cup will indicate winning running styles. The Keeneland stretch to the first finish pole (1 1/16 miles) is 1,236 feet.
Keeneland 2020: The top three finishers – Essential Quality, Hot Rod Charlie and Keepmeinmind – closed from off the pace on a fast track.
Keeneland 2015: The top three – Nyquist, Swipe and Brody's Cause – all closed. The track was labeled fast although there was rain throughout the day.
Breeders' Cup Juvenile at a glance
Distance: 1 1/16 miles
All stats are for the last 22 years (2000-21)
Division debut: 1984
2022 Breeders' Cup Challenge winners:
American Pharoah Stakes (G1) — Cave Rock
Champagne Stakes (G1) — Blazing Sevens
Breeders' Futurity (G1) — Forte
Breeders' Cup Challenge previous results:
Prep races:
15 Juvenile winners won their final prep.
5 — American Pharoah (previously the Frontrunner & Norfolk)
4 — Champagne Stakes
3 — Breeders' Futurity
2 — Kentucky Cup Juvenile (L)
1 — Gran Criterium (Italy, G1)
1 — Royal Lodge Stakes (Great Britain, G1)
1 — Middle Park Stakes (Great Britain, G1)
2 — Maiden Special Weight
Keeneland 2020: Winner Essential Quality won the Breeders' Futurity.
Second-place finisher won a maiden special weight at Santa Anita.
Third-place finisher Keepmeinmind was second in the Breeders' Futurity.
Payouts
Average win payout: $22.72
Lowest: $4.00 Game Winner (2018)
Highest: $93.80 Storm the Court (2019)
Favorites
22 percent win
22 percent place
9 percent show
Last to win: Corniche (2021)
Keeneland 2020: The favorite Jackie's Warrior faded to fourth after pressing the pace.
Second favorite:
27 percent win
18 percent place
4 percent show
Last to win: Essential Quality (2020)
Third favorite:
4 percent win
9 percent place
27 percent show
Last to win: Hanen (2011)
Keeneland 2020:The second favorite won in 2020 and 2015.
Post position
Post 2 – 2 winners
Post 4 – 4 winners
Post 5 – 4 winners
Post 6 – 2 winners
Post 7 – 2 winners
Posts 1, 3, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12 — One each
Rail: The rail is the kiss of death. Only two have won since the Juvenile's inception in 1984.
Keeneland: In 2020, Essential Quality won from post 5. In 2015, Nyquist won from post 12.
Winning style
Determined by position at the half-mile:
7 pacesetters – wired the field
6 pressers
9 closers
Two pacesetters each finished second and third.
Pressers finished second nine times and third eight times.
Closers were second 11 times, and 12 finished third.
Keeneland: Closers ruled in 2020 and 2015.
Previous starts
10 winners were undefeated.
8 had 2 previous starts.
5 had 3 previous starts.
6 had 4 previous starts.
1 had 5 previous starts.
1 had 6 previous starts.
1 had 6 previous starts.
No Juvenile winner has finished worse than third in their final prep.
Trainers (1984 to 2021)
Wayne Lukas leads the way with 41 starters and a record of 5-3-6.
Not far behind, Bob Baffert started 31 runners with a 5-4-0 record.
Todd Pletcher had 23 starters with a 2-3-1 record.
Doug O'Neil has done well with his 13 starters, posting a 2-3-1 record.
Still looking for a victory:
Steve Asmussen is 0-for-10 with a second and third.
Ken McPeek is 0-for-9 but has one second-place finisher, and four completed the trifecta.
Jockeys (1984 to 2021)
John Velazquez has ridden 18 times but has a 1-1-3 record.
Mike Smith is hot on his heels, with 17 starters and a 3-1-0 record. Smith is tied with the retired greats Jerry Bailey and Laffit Pincay, Jr. for number of wins.
Flavien Prat and Jose Ortiz have ridden four mounts each. Prat has a win and second place, and Ortiz has a win and two-thirds.
Summary
The Juvenile winner exited the American Pharoah Stakes five
of the last eight years. Two won the Keeneland Breeders' Futurity, and one
placed in the Champagne Stakes.
None of the rail positions have completed the superfecta since 2010.
Seven of the last 10 colts to prevail won their last start, and none placed worse than third. Five were undefeated entering the race, including the two Keeneland winners.