Belmont Stakes 2019 pedigrees: Will newcomers get the distance?
Seven of this year’s 10 Belmont Stakes probables raced in previous legs of the Triple Crown, providing some evidence of how they’ll handle Saturday’s 12-furlong distance. For the newcomers — plus, Master Fencer, now that we’ve seen more of him in the U.S. — let’s analyze pedigrees to determine whether they’ll handle the trip.
(Tapit - Flaming Heart, by Touch Gold)
Trainer: Todd Pletcher
Race Record: 3: 2-0-1 ($140,400)
Last Race: 3rd Peter Pan Stakes (G3)
Intrepid Heart dazzled in winning his debut by 7 3/4-lengths at Oaklawn Park. He followed up with a brave up-the-rail allowance victory next out at Keeneland. However, while he stumbled slightly at the start of the Peter Pan Stakes (G3), Intrepid Heart was in position to challenge but noticeably tired, finishing six lengths behind Global Campaign.
Intrepid Heart has the pedigree and conformation of a middle distance/classic runner as the ninth foal and third blacktype earner out of a stakes-winning miler. He has Belmont Stakes connections in his immediate family, too, with his half-brother Commissioner missing the victory by a head in 2014 behind Tonalist, a son of Tapit. A middle distance/classic runner, Commissioner won the Hawthorne Gold Cup at 10 furlongs plus the Pimlico Special and Skip Away Stakes both at 9.5 furlongs.
Tapit needs no introduction as a sire. Three of his four winners at 1 1/2-miles were Belmont Stakes winners.
Touch Gold, a regally bred son of Deputy Minister, is best known for spoiling the 1997 Triple Crown bid of Silver Charm. Ironically, both of those veterans can be found greeting fans at Kentucky’s Old Friends retirement farm. Touch Gold is the damsire of 36 listed/graded stakes winners. Only two, both turf routers have won at 1 1/2 miles.
Belmont Distance Verdict: Yep! By a sire of Belmont Stakes winners out of a daughter of a Belmont Stakes winner and a half-brother to an “almost” Belmont Stakes winner. What's not to like? Well, for one thing, in the Peter Pan, the gray colt was weaving around like a punch drunk boxer. The track may have been deep, and Intrepid Heart appeared tired. Pedigree-wise, he passes the test. But on looks, he might not be ready for this after three starts.
(Shanghai Bobby - Peace Process, by War Front)
Trainer: Greg Sacco
Race Record: 5: 2-2-0 ($131,600)
Last Race: 1st Long Branch Stakes
On the rail in the 1 1/16-mile Long Branch Sakes, Joevia launched out of the gate like a Pop-Tart from a toaster, took the lead and never relinquished it despite dealing with some moderate pressure. He faced only three competitors over a sloppy track. Two back, Joevia was also “that horse” causing all the trouble at the start of the Wood Memorial (G2). After being pushed to the lead, Joevia decided he had enough before the race was half over and retreated to the back of the pack.
Joevia has a miler conformation and pedigree. He's the second foal and first blacktype earner in the immediate family, and he owns the only blacktype in two generations. Joevia’s pedigree is an example of class skipping a generation. His third dam, Special Broad, won the one-mile Tempted Stakes (G3) as a juvenile and later in her career stretched to 1 1/16 miles. She's the dam of stakes-winning sprinter Sheeler and is the second dam of the hard-knocking stakes miler Lesson in Deceit, who made 100 starts.
Shanghai, Bobby’s offspring are sprinter/miler types. He has six blacktype winners, and none have won beyond 1 1/16 miles. War Front is a young damsire, with only 88 runners on the track and four stakes winners. None have won beyond 1 1/16 miles. I expect in time some will win at 1 1/8 miles, and we may possibly see a classic winner.
Belmont Distance Verdict: Nope! At best, Joevia might get 1 1/8 miles in the right company. His preferred surface is a sloppy track. In the past, we've seen Belmont Stakes winners with sprinter/miler pedigrees surprising the Belmont Stakes. Most notable was the 2011 Belmont Stakes over a sloppy, sealed track. Joevia’s longshot chance of winning the Belmont Stakes is to head to the front, get a little bit of a lead, slow things to a crawl and hope he can hang on.
(Just a Way - Sexy Zamurai, by Deputy Minster)
Trainer: Tsunoda Koichi
Race Record: 7: 2-2-0 ($234,392)
Last Race: 6th Kentucky Derby
Seventh across the wire in the Derby, he was placed six due to Maximum Security’s disqualification. In the race’s early stages, Master Fencer chased the field some 23 lengths out of it. In the stretch, Julien Leparoux guided the colt to the inside, where he motored by tired horses to finish just four lengths off the winner. Master Fencer got his final quarter mile in 24.60 seconds, the fastest in the field.
Master Fencer has a middle distance/classic pedigree. He's the fourth foal and second blacktype earner in the immediate family. His half-brother, Top Divo, is a stakes winner and multiple stakes placed at 1 1/8 miles. Master Fencer's dam is a half-sister to multiple graded stakes winner Once Caroline, successful at a mile and 1 1/8 miles. Not much blacktype in the third generation, but Kentucky Oaks heroine Farda Amiga and Irish/English Champion 2-year-old colt St. Jovite are members of the family.
Just a Way, a grandson of Sunday Silence, was Champion Older Horse in Japan in 2014. The multiple group winner won at 1 1/8 miles and 1 1/4 miles and placed at 1 1/2 miles — all on the lawn. Master Fencer is part of his first crop. Just a Way is off to an excellent start at stud with one stakes winner and six stakes-placed runners, four of them graded.
Deputy Minister is one of the top broodmare sires in modern history. He's found as the broodmare sire of Belmont Stakes winners Rags to Riches, Savara and Jazil, plus Horse of the Year and major sire Curlin, champion Abel Tasman, and Breeders’ Cup Marathon winner Man of Iron.
Belmont Distance Verdict: Yep! If he handles the track, Master Fencer is the one most likely to be going strong in the final stages of the Belmont Stakes. However, dropping double digit lengths out of it is not the way to win this race.
(Awesome Again - La Gran Bailadora, by Afleet Alex)
Trainer: Mark Casse
Race Record: 9: 2-1-1 ($161,773)
Last Race: 2nd Peter Pan Stakes (G3)
Sir Winston showed no early speed in the Peter Pan, trailing by roughly 10 lengths early. He slowly made up ground around the sweeping far turn and ignited the afterburners down the stretch, making up ground with every stride. Ultimately, he fell 1 1/4 lengths short but fell short, going his final furlong in 12 seconds flat, .29 seconds better than winner Global Campaign.
Sir Winston has a classic pedigree and the conformation of a stayer. He's the third foal and first blacktype earner out of a multiple stakes-winning mare. Both half siblings are unraced. La Gran Bailadora won/placed in 16 of 24 starts as a listed Grade 3 winner and Grade 1 stakes-placed runner, mostly over Polytrack, from a mile to 1 1/4 miles. She won/placed in two of three starts on dirt, but was unplaced over mud. Sir Winston's second dam was a stakes-winning turf miler who placed at 1 1/8 miles, and his third dam, Woolloomooloo earned double honors as Canada's Champion older mare and turf mare.
Awesome Again is noted for getting slower maturing runners. The majority of his offspring are best between a mile and 1 1/4-miles, and he's sired four Breeders' Cup winners. Both of his winners at 1 1/2 miles are turf routers.
Afleet Alex is one of those runners who, with a better Kentucky Derby trip, would have been a Triple Crown hero. The tenacious chestnut was a runaway seven-length winner of the 2005 Belmont Stakes and earned himself champion 3-year-old status. Afleet Alex has few listed/graded stakes winners as a damsire. None have won beyond 1 1/8 miles, but I expect that given the opportunity, they should handle classic distances. Adding more stamina to the pedigree is Sir Winston's second damsire, Triple Crown legend Affirmed.
Belmont Distance Verdict: Yep! How good was Sir Winston’s Peter Pan finish? There were only 5 horses in the race, three of them struggling behind him and the one in front desperate to hang on. Plus, other than his strong showing in the Peter Pan, Sir Winston’s dirt race record has a lot to be desired. There are questions surrounding this wildcard. Is he just a Polytrack specialist? Has the company as a 3-year-old in the Withers, Tampa Bay Derby and Blue Grass been too strong? Has he finally found the right jockey for his running style? Sir Winston will close with his late rush in the Belmont Stakes, but like Master Fencer, he can’t sit too far out of it to have a winning shot.